NFL Picks: Houston Texans Futures Update

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, July 15, 2014 5:47 AM GMT

Houston only won two games in 2013 and had a long offseason trying to improve upon one of their most disappointing seasons in franchise history. Some people are high on them this year, however are they anywhere close to having offseason NFL Odds value?

           

Super Bowl (+6600)
After only winning two games in 2013, I don’t think there is any way you can place a wager on the Texans to win the Super Bowl. Even though their Super Bowl NFL odds from Bovada are fairly priced, you would have to wager that they would beat out Indianapolis, as well as a couple of heavy hitters in the AFC and NFC. This is simply not believable. I have heard a lot this offseason about the Texans pulling what the Chiefs did last season. Even though you can compare their defenses, their offenses are far apart. Alex Smith is a much better quarterback that Ryan Fitzpatrick, and while the Texans’ skill players are good, Andre Johnson might hold out into the season, and Arian Foster is one or two years away from being done, if he isn’t there already.

 

AFC (+2800)
The Texans’ defense will be where they hold most if not all of their value this season. Not only did they get a franchise changing pass rusher in the draft, but their defense is already good. JJ Watt should finish in the top five in voting for the defensive player of the year, and even though they lost Antonio Smith and basically all of their linebackers from last season, they should still have a solid season rushing the passer and stopping the run. Last year Houston ranked 23rd in defending the run, and as long as that is improved some from 2013, they should win at least double what they did in 2013. However even though their defense is likely going to be where the money is made, their offense might just be one of the worst units in all of football if things go the way I think they will in 2014. This may zap any sort of ATS NFL odds value that Houston could have this season.

 

AFC South (+300)
Despite being the worst team in football last year, the Texans are available as a sports pick currently at +300 to win the AFC South this year. They are ranked second behind only the Colts, and even though I agree with this, +300 is overvaluing them somewhat. If Johnson’s holdout goes into the regular season, DeAndre Hopkins will not be enough to get the Texans over the hump. They had a lateral move at quarterback from Matt Schaub to Ryan Fitzpatrick, and if they don’t have their #1 option getting acclimated with their new quarterback this offseason, things aren’t going to go well. On top of that, Foster’s play has started to decline, and after a year where he only played eight games, it may be the beginning of the end for Foster. He will be 28 years old by the time the season begins, and for a feature running back coming off of injury, this does not give a big boost of confidence in Texans’ camp. Add that to a brand-new head coach who has never coached a NFL game in his life, and you have another poor season in Houston; keep this in mind before making your next NFL pick