NFL Picks: Houston Texans AFC South Division Future Odds

Jordan Sharp

Friday, May 24, 2013 2:10 PM UTC

Friday, May. 24, 2013 2:10 PM UTC

Let's have a look at how the Houston Texans will fair in the AFC during this upcoming 2013-14 NFL season. Will they be as good ATS as they were last year?


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Houston Texans divisional future odds update

The AFC South was a little tighter last season because of the surprising emergence of Andrew Luck, and even though the Colts almost cashed as big underdogs, the Texans edged them out by one game and won the division, probably saving a lot of people in Houston and elsewhere from losing their house from being blinded by the chalk.

This season the NFL divisional future odds are still in favor of the Texans to win the division, but at -250, they are far from the chalk we saw on them last season. Similarly, the Colts are a lot smaller underdogs if you were wondering that as well.

Houston is getting closer and closer, but they seem to still be on the uphill climb. I really like their chances of winning the division, but they also hold some risks as well. Andre Johnson is getting up there in age and he has been breaking down over the last few seasons, and Arian Foster had a career low 4.1 yards per carry last season, and a career high in carries at 351. I’m not trying to doubt them, because personally I think they are once again going to win the division and make a run into the playoffs.

The big thing for them is Foster. If he can rebound and start to average five yards per carry again, this offense doesn’t need to do much else except have a couple of guys who can give him rest. Houston makes their money on defense, and even though they have lost a few guys this offseason, and they got beat up later in the season, Houston still has one of the better defenses in the AFC.

Connor Barwin, OLB, left for Philadelphia, but his 2012 was far from his standout 2011 season. Glover Quin also left and went to Detroit, most likely because the Lions offered him a nice contract and because Daniel Manning took over starting at SS. However they did sign Ed Reed to play FS, and even though he might have hid his hip issue from the Texans, it appears he will at the very least see some training camp this offseason once he is fully recovered.

The Texans were surprisingly undervalued in 2012, and for whatever reason, Houston made some nice money for bettors in a lot of different scenarios. They were 10-8 ATS overall including the playoffs and they were a very nice 6-3 ATS at home. Even though they were favorites for 15 of their 18 games last season, the Texans were 9-6 ATS as favorites in 2012.

I still expect Houston to run over most of the AFC this season, but another year as good ATS is not likely. They could end up overvalued during the season, but currently their prices in the NFL odds this offseason seem pretty fair. If you are one of those chalk lovers that hasn’t learned from last season, I would still endorse Houston as a division winner. However -250 is a bit much for my NFL picks liking. There is value in many other places with the Texans, this being one of the smallest.



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