NFL Picks: Have Confidence in the Colts -4 Against (2-4) Saints

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, October 23, 2015 3:15 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 23, 2015 3:15 PM UTC

Lets continue our quest of weekly winning NFL picks with our bet on the Colts in week 7. They are a mere (-4) point favorite against a (2-4) Saints team coming off a big win Thursday Night.

New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts (-4) 1:00 EST
New Orleans Saints visit the Indianapolis Colts for this 1 o’clock Eastern Time kick that will be played in perfect dome conditions. Neither of these teams has performed to expectations this season, with the Saints just 2-4 SU; they have won the yardage in only one contest. But that is better than the Colts, who have failed to win the battle of the yards in any of their 6 contests, despite posting a 3-3 SU record. Interesting parallels continue for these teams, as each of their franchise type signal callers, QB Brees for New Orleans and QB Luck for Indy, have been battling arm injuries the early half of the season. Reports are that for this contest, each should be close to 100%.

Last week, New Orleans pulled a Thursday night shocker against previously undefeated Atlanta. But it was more about the turnovers, a +3 net for New Orleans that handed them the 31-21 victory. For the Falcons controlled the line of scrimmage with a 150-81 advantage. We still should not be comfortable with a New Orleans team who is being outrushed for the season 138/4.8 to 85/3.4; that will get you steamrolled at the point of attack more often than not in the NFL. Combined with a defense that allows 27 PPG, 410 YPG (the highest number in the league), and 6.6 YP play (tied with the San Diego Chargers for the worst number in the league). There is little to like about New Orleans, even based on last week’s victory and 10 days of rest.

In last week’s Sunday night prime time loss to New England, Indianapolis played New England virtually even in the stats; a backdoor TD with a minute left got the cover. The Indy defensive stats for the year are nearly as troubling as those of New Orleans, but they have been far more competitive at the point of attack than the Saints. Most importantly to the fortunes of the Colts, the numbers for QB Luck were positive last week as he went 30-50 with a 3/O ratio. Joining with the favoring fundamentals in this contest is a great situation for the Colts. Since QB Luck entered the league, the Colts are 15-2 SU, 14-3 ATS in games he has started when Indianapolis is off a loss.

This is a value price in a great situation with supporting fundamentals. I invite you to join me in putting the NFL odds in our favor in backing the Indianapolis Colts this week as my NFL pick for CRUSHER OF THE WEEK in what figures to be the highest scoring game of the day.

NFL Pick: Indianapolis Colts -4 (-105) at Pinnacle

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