NFL Picks: Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, September 4, 2014 4:28 PM GMT

Thursday, Sep. 4, 2014 4:28 PM GMT

The Packers open up on the road against the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, but is there an opportunity to make your NFL picks cash on both teams?

Bringing the Hype
Have you started reading all there is to read about the opening salvo in the NFL’s season long barrage of blood, sweat, tackles and tears?  If you’re late to the party, then might I suggest you peruse all the number crunching, fact checking and learned opinions of some of my esteemed colleagues, who have also shared their free NFL picks on SBR Picks.  Once you’re finished and fully briefed about tonight’s game and the accompanying NFL odds, I ask you to think about the numbers involved and how it relates to what could be a golden opportunity to cash in your NFL picks tonight.

 

Arbitrage
We hear the term constantly when talking about Wall Street hotshots and big money deals.  But what many don’t know about or tend to ignore is the opportunity to make money on both sides of an NFL game.  We call it arbitrage or middling and it can be a profitable way to cash in your NFL picks without really taking a side.

The NFL is a numbers game.  You can watch all the games you want, listen to all the talk shows and voraciously read every tidbit about which player is doing what in practice or how this team matches up over the last decade versus another.  But I would submit to you that some of the sharpest minds in the business watch far less football than those talk show gabmeisters who can prattle on from noon until six about every facet of the game yet never make a bet. 

I will give you two scenarios that play solely on the numbers.  How many times have you heard your buddies or a guy at the bar say, “Those bookies know what they’re doin’.  That game landed right on the number.  You can’t beat Vegas.”  Now obviously that’s a ham n’ egger talking who believes that because the one game he bet landed on the exact line that he got, every game follows suit.  But it does give us cause for pause because the online sportsbooks pay their oddsmakers to be sharp and even though their line is predicated on what number they believe will distribute equal action on each side (and not their actual opinion of the game which is a common misconception) it will rise or fall based on the actual money being bet.  Let us assume the oddsmakers have it right on tonight’s tilt in Seattle.  I will illustrate how that pays off big time.

Scenario 1 – Seattle -5 ½, -235 money line at 5Dimes.com

The Seahawks are home and will be greeted by 67,000 frenzied fans at Centurylink Field.  That alone affects the NFL odds and adds approximately three points for home field advantage.  Here’s what we do:

Bet – Seahawks -235

Bet – Two-team teaser (add 6 points to both teams in the teaser but both must cover the NFL point spread) on Green Bay +11 ½ with a favorite on Sunday.  In this case we will use Green Bay +11 ½ with the Broncos (currently being offered at -6 ½ at 5Dimes.com) which will make Denver – ½ point betting favorites over their opponents, the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. 

If Seattle wins by 11 points or less then you will have cashed in your NFL picks on Seattle -235 and will have an open end teaser with Green Bay already covering and Denver – ½ instead of -6 ½ . 

At this point you can either take your chances on Denver winning outright without having to lay -360 like everyone else betting them on the money line.  Or you could press your luck and bet the Colts +6 ½ (or +7 as I would suggest and lay -120 instead of -110) and if Denver wins by six or less, you will have hit two teasers and one money line wager.

 

Scenario 2 - Seattle -5 ½, -235 money line at 5Dimes
In this scenario you can get the pain over with in one fell swoop. In what we call a correlated teaser you can wager the Seahawks + ½ (remember you add six points on a two-team teaser and the line on Seattle is currently -5 ½) with the Packers +11 ½.  If Seattle wins the game by not more than 11 points then you sir have yourself a winner without ever taking a side. 

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Check Out All of Our NFL Betting Coverage For Tonight's Game:

NFL Odds Offer Seahawks -6 Over Packers: Should We Bite?

Bet Seahawks ATS vs. Packers in Thursday NFL Opener

Thursday Night Prop Bets for Packers-Seahawks

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