NFL Picks: Great Betting Value Found on Ravens +10 vs. Cardinals

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, October 24, 2015 9:47 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 24, 2015 9:47 PM UTC

The Baltimore Ravens are reeling after a 1-5 start while the Cardinals were stunned last week in Pittsburgh. Let’s analyze the NFL odds in this one and find the right side to include in our NFL picks for this Monday night matchup.

Baltimore Ravens (1-5 SU, 0-5-1 ATS)
Baltimore’s season has been a nightmare with five losses in six games and the defense still slumbering from the offseason. The irony is not lost on those who have followed the Ravens storied past with defensive legends like Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Tony Siragusa and even Rod Woodson who plied his trade in Baltimore for four seasons. This team bears no resemblance to those punishing Ravens' defenses of yesteryear as their 27 points allowed per game clearly illustrates.

Those who have been including Baltimore in their NFL picks have gotten spanked right along with the team. All five of their losses have been five failed ATS covers and their lone win, 23-20 against Pittsburgh in Week 4, was a push as the Baltimore Ravens were installed by the NFL odds makers as three-point favorites. But the curious part of all this is that their offense has not been nearly as impotent as one would think of a team carrying a 1-5 mark into the seventh week of the season. The Ravens are ranked 11th in passing yards averaging 258.3 per game and 11th in points scored averaging 23.8. Even Baltimore's rushing game is better than most averaging 111.2 yards per game which is good for 14th in the league. Maybe the Ravens have just got caught playing the wrong teams at the wrong time. They are certainly not the perennial playoff team we knew and some loved - and some hated - but they could be better than the public is giving the credit for during this tumultuous season.

***Ravens vs. Cardinals Monday Night Footbal Betting Preview***
***Ravens vs. Cardinals Monday Night Total Pick***
***Ravens vs. Cardinals Monday Night Prop Odds***
***Ravens vs. Cardinals Monday Night Prop Picks***


Arizona Cardinals (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS)
The Arizona Cardinals were fresh off delivering a 42-17 thumping to the Lions in Detroit and the NFL odds makers opened up with Arizona -3 over Pittsburgh in Week 6 but that mushroomed to as high as Arizona -6 in some shops. The public was clearly licking their chops at getting a piece of the Cardinals who had demolished four of the five teams they had faced and the Steelers simply looked like they would be the latest team to get drilled. But that was not to be, much to the shock and chagrin of the squares who lined up like lemmings to bet the Cards. When the dust settled the Steelers not only covered the number but won the game outright 25-13.

Arizona scored the least amount of points as they had all season in Pittsburgh and that was against a Steelers team that does not defend what the Cardinals do best and that is pass the football. Carson Palmer certainly took advantage of Pittsburgh's porous pass defense with 421 yards through the air and a touchdown but he also had a pair of picks to boot and could not translate yardage to points. The Cardinals may be relying too much on Palmer's prolific arm as they garnered only 55 yards on the ground in their Week 6 loss to Pittsburgh.


Betting Analysis
While the Cardinals have looked invincible at times this season let's take a look at who they've beaten: Saints, Bears, 49'ers and Lions. Not exactly the mettle of the league and yet the public salivates to bet them. The Ravens, as woeful as their record may be, have lost by an average of 4.4 points per game and have not been blown out this season.

So here it is. The Ravens Joe Flacco can be a top tier quarterback when he's on but his offensive line has not provided him much protection nor does he have any real deep threats in which to throw. However since starting left tackle Eugene Monroe returned from the injury list he has given Flacco more time in the pocket and despite losing last week to the 49'ers he did pass for 343 yards and two touchdowns.

I like the value we are getting with the Ravens on Monday night. Arizona may not be quite the team that they appear to be and the same could also be said of the Ravens. Here are some stats to chew on.

Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in their last five Monday night games.

Cardinals are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five Week 7 games.

Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday night games.

Ravens are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.

NFL Picks: Play the Ravens +10 (-126) at Pinnacle

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