Though it may be harder to predict in the area of the spread, the NFL Odds of 39 on the total seem to be beckoning for a play. Let’s take a look at these two teams and see what side of the total is best.
The Patriots got slammed by the Lions in Week 3 of the preseason, and while they were in the game, the starters did not look that great. Tom Brady was 16/24 while in the game, but he threw an interception and was sacked twice. On top of it all, the Pats gave up 40 points, and did not score a touchdown until the last 30 seconds of the game. They also averaged 2.3 yards per carry as a team on the ground. No string looked good for New England in their dress rehearsal.
The Giants also lost, but at least they lost within single digits. New York lost to the other New York team, but it was the Jets that lost the most. The Giants did lose breakout safety Stevie Brown for the season in that game, and that hurts more than any preseason loss in the scoreboard. Brown had 8 interceptions last season for the G-Men, and losing him in an already shaky secondary is not good for New York heading into the season.
Backups and coaches
This game is all about coaching and the will to win, because for some of these guys, it will be their last chance of making an NFL roster, maybe for the rest of their lives. Coaches have to cut the rosters down again very soon, and one play could make or break a certain player.
Both of these teams have backup battles going. The backup battle at quarterback for New England is over, and if he plays in this game, it could be the last NFL game Tim Tebow ever plays. He did not play in Week 3.
The two coaches are going to play a huge role obviously on who wins this game, but I think it’s safe to say that both will try and win it, and both will try and put up a bunch of points. The secondaries of these two teams will likely give up a lot of points to the backup offenses, and even though Week 4 is normally a lower scoring week, I think there is an ace in the hole when it comes to the ‘Over’ in this game.
The Sharp Pick
Both Bill Belichick and Tom Coughlin are wizards when it comes to cashing the ‘Over’ during the preseason. Coughlin is 43-29 in his career taking the total over in the preseason, while Belichick is even better, going 3-0 this season, and 48-27-1 over his great career cashing the preseason ‘Over’. In a game that doesn’t mean anything, the offense will likely rule between these two teams, and that should be rare during this week. I see a game where both teams get into the 20s, so take the ‘Over’ and add it to your NFL Picks for Thursday night.
My Pick: ‘Over’ 39 at Bet 365