NFL Picks: Giants vs. Lions to go Over

Steven Suarez

Thursday, December 19, 2013 2:38 PM UTC

Thursday, Dec. 19, 2013 2:38 PM UTC

The Lions are favored by a huge margin for Week 16's home encounter with the hapless Giants. Let's run over the NFL odds to see where the value is hiding.

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Odds Overview

Early NFL betting lines have Detroit favored by nine points. The Lions are 7-7 SU and 6-8 ATS, while the Giants come in holding a 5-9 SU record and a 5-9 ATS mark.

The O/U for Sunday afternoon's game is holding steady at 49. The OVER is 6-2 in Detroit's past eight home games but the UNDER is 13-4 in New York's previous 17 road contests dating back over the last couple of seasons.

New York Giants

Playoff hopes were still alive back when the Giants had won four in a row and five of six (with highlight wins over Green Bay and Philadelphia), but they've since lost two straight to put them out of contention.

It's not like either of the losses were close either. First New York was trounced by 23 in San Diego and then they go shut out by the Seahawks at home last weekend in a 23-0 defeat.

The Giants actually battled hard defensively and forced a number of stops, but the offense was absolutely dreadful. Eli Manning was 18-of-31 for 156 yards, with five interceptions and zero touchdowns. Andre Brown was stuffed in the running game, finishing with 11 carries for 17 yards.

In total, New York ended up with 181 total yards of offense, a pitiful showing in front of their loyal fans.

Making matters worse, the Giants are really banged up heading into Week 16. Jason Pierre-Paul remains out and that's a huge loss in the pass rush, while Victor Cruz is dealing with a concussion and a sprained knee. There's little chance he'll play again this season.

Detroit Lions

At 6-3 earlier in the year, the Lions were looking like a bonafide playoff team. They've since dropped four of five, making their chances of reaching the postseason extremely slim.

Monday night's gut-wrenching loss was a killer. Detroit took a late 16-15 lead after a touchdown catch from Joseph Fauria, but the Ravens drove down the field last minute and Justin Tucker connected on a 61-yarder to win the game for the road team. Stunning.

Needless to say, it wasn't the best of nights for Matthew Stafford and the typically unstoppable Lions offense.

Stafford was 18-of-34 for 235 yards and had more picks (three) than touchdowns (one). Calvin Johnson fought his way through tight coverage to catch six passes for 98 yards, while Reggie Bush had 101 total yards and a touchdown.

Detroit gets another chance to get the job done at home, where they're 4-3 SU and 3-4 against the spread so far this year.

Make sure to check out our:

NFL Picks: Week 16 Betting Odds Report

NFL Picks: Week 16 NFL Value Picks

NFL Pick

We briefly considered taking the plunge and backing a Lions cover, but we feel a lot more comfortable with the OVER this Sunday. In all honesty, we just don't really trust either of these teams enough to back them with our against the spread NFL picks.

There's no way New York can do any worse offensively than they did last week and they should have a lot more success in moving the ball against the Lions.

Then you've got an angry Stafford/Megatron combo on the other side, ready to inflict damage after a disappointing end to Week 15.

We simply feel as if points won't be hard to come by, so we'll add the OVER to our NFL picks for this showdown at Ford Field.

NFL Pick: OVER 49

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