The NFL Season is upon us. Check out our Week 1 Opening Odds Report!
The NFL odds for this matchup opened in favor of the home Cowboys at -3, with a total of 48.5. Let’s take a look at some of the factors leading up to this game, and see if we can find an early lean for this Sunday night game.
The Giants were dealt a big blow when they lost starting safety, Stevie Brown for the season just a few weeks ago, and now their vulnerable secondary is going to have an even bigger hole. The Giants were one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL last season, and while the spread did not move at all with the news of Brown’s injury, this could derail the Giants playoff hopes.
With the insertion of Monte Kiffin as defensive coordinator, he will likely install a more conservative secondary from his predecessor, Rob Ryan. I think we can expect less bump and run and man-to-man coverage with the Cowboys this season, and I think we will start to see it in this game. I doubt Kiffin will leave his corners out on an island against the likes of Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks in this game. I expect more safety help for Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne in this game and for the season.
Check out our play on the 'Total' for this game!~
Since Week 1 NFL Odds have now been out for several months, we have had a long time to look and analyze these lines. While data from the SBRForum Consensus Data page is not yet complete, we can take a look at how many wagers have been placed on either side of this game, and take a look at the average dollar amount being placed on either team. Check back a couple of days before kickoff to get a complete view of how much money is being placed on either side, but so far things look kind of even.
The Giants taking points have taken just over 57% of the bets placed on this game, while the average amount wagered on either side actually slightly favors the Cowboys laying the -3 at home. This is typical in early week NFL betting, and once we get closer to Sunday night, things should start to take off.
I expect the Cowboys to take a majority of the money in this game, but that’s because Cowboys fans will be anxious to place bets on their precious team. However the sportsbooks might be looking to take advantage of that, which is why right now I am leaning towards a play on the Giants. There are several sportsbooks that have NFL odds of +3.5 for the G-Men, and that may be the best bet. They have flown well under the radar this offseason, while Tony Romo and the Cowboys are never without eyeballs all over them. With his new big contract, and the constant scrutiny placed on Dallas, it could be the other side that has the most value. Fading what will likely be the public’s favorite could be the way to go, if indeed the Cowboys take the public’s money.
Be sure to check back later in the week for my sports pick on the spread as well as the total in this game.
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