Our first primetime nationally televised game of the NFL season is the Giants heading into Dallas to play the Cowboys. Dallas is a -3 ½ favorite in this game with a total of 48 ½ in the NFL odds. In this statement NFC East game, I have already shared my thoughts on this game's opening odds, and now it’s time for the spread pick.
Dallas’ new defense
Rob Ryan is gone from Dallas and in steps Monte Kiffin, who will play a much more base defense opposed to the exotic schemes of Ryan. While the Cowboys have looked up and down this preseason on defense, their secondary is going to be where the problems start to sprout up, and I think we might get a taste of that in this game. I have already stated I like the ‘Over’ in this game, but the spread is a different story.
If Dallas struggles in the secondary in this game, it could also be because New York has a ton of passing weapons. From Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks to Brandon Myers and even David Wilson, all of these guys are going to give the Cowboys headaches in this game. Even though I think Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne are both good corners, the Giants got an average of 200 yards receiving against the Cowboys last season. The addition of Will Allen for Dallas will help, but not in this game; this early in the season. On top of the offense looking good this season for the Giants, New York has been very successful against Dallas in the recent past.
The Sharp Pick
The Giants are 5-1 SU in their last six trips to play the Cowboys in Dallas, and they are even better overall against them, winning six of the last eight meetings overall. With this kind of trend behind us, I think we have to take the points with the Giants, but overall, New York is the better team, and has been undervalued all offseason.
The G-men when healthy are one of the best, and they should win the East division this season if they stay healthy. In this game, the new defensive system is going to be taken advantage by a deep receiving core of the Giants. While the Cowboys will likely have success in the passing game as well, I am more trusting of Eli Manning to win a game that I am of Tony Romo.
On top of that, Dallas is always overvalued, and you can bet they are once again in these Week 1 NFL Odds. Dallas is notoriously overvalued when playing at home as well. The Cowboys are 1-10 ATS in their last eleven home games dating back to the end of the 2011 season. They are a combined 6-18 ATS in the last three seasons at home.
The G-Men have won seven of their last ten meetings both SU and ATS with the Cowboys as well, and the Giants have covered three of their last four meetings overall also. Even with the loss of Stevie Brown, I think the Giants’ defense has some upside in this game, and with the spread having the half point at some sportsbooks, I think the underdogs are the way to go in this game, Take the points with New York and add it your NFL Picks for the end of Week 1.
My Pick: Giants +3 ½ @Matchbook