NFL Picks: Get Over on the Bookies With Our Winning Week 12 Totals

Kevin Stott

Thursday, November 26, 2015 2:34 PM GMT

Let’s take look at the 11 games left on the NFL Week 12 Regular Season schedule from a Totals point of view by examining recent Series Trends & Over/Under numbers in the current marketplace.

New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans
Point Spread: Texans -3 (Bovada)
Lowest Total in Market: 47
Consensus Total in Market: 47½
Highest Total in Market: 47½

Totals Trends, Thoughts:
Houston Texans (5-5 ATS, 5-5 ATS, W3) starting QB Brian Hoyer passed Concussion protocol and is now expected to get the start here against Drew Brees and the Saints (4-6 SU, 4-5-1 ATS)—who will be coming in off their Bye Week and have had 13 Days Rest but were pummeled by the Redskins in Washington in their last game in Week 10. When these two teams last met, the Saints beat the Texans 40-33 and covered as 3-point favorites in New Orleans in 2011 with the game flying Over the high posted Total of 51 while in the last meeting here at NRG Stadium in Houston, the Texan won 23-10 as the game went Under the Total of 49½ in 2007. Brees (56-49-4 ATS on Road) and the Saints have been an Over team overall (6-4 O/U) and especially on the Road this season (4-1 Over) while host Houston has also trended to the Over (6-3-1, 3-2 Home). The Texans—who are without star RB Arian Foster, out for Season—have started to play some ferocious D behind DL JJ Watt after being embarrassed 41-0 in the 1st Half at Miami back in Week 6, so this is a very tough call.

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Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons
Point Spread: Falcons -1 (Bovada)
Lowest Total in Market: 45½
Consensus Total in Market: 45½
Highest Total in Market: 46

Totals Trends, Thoughts: 
Teddy Bridgewater (Shoulder) and the Minnesota Vikings (7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS) face Matt Ryan and the slumping Atlanta Falcons (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS, L3) in this NFC inter-divisional tilt from the Georgia Dome this Sunday in Atlanta in Week 12 play. The last time these two played, the Vikings defeated the Falcons, 41-28 last season in Minneapolis, easily going Over the 48 Total while in the last meeting here at Atlanta between the two, the Falcons won 24-14, as the Total went Under the Total of 44 in 2011. The Falcons and RB Devonta Freeman (Concussion), the NFL’s leading Rusher averaging 126.8 ypg, who hurt himself in the Falcons OT loss to the Colts in Atlanta, have seen the Under go 17-4 ATS the L21 games in November, 12-3-1 ATS the L16 vs. the NFC and Atlanta has gone 16-5-1 to the Under over its L22. And Minnesota Unders are 7-1 ATS the L8 on FieldTurf (Georgia Dome), 7-1 the L8 against the NFC and the Vikings Unders are 8-1-1 this year, the best Under mark in the NFL. Good enough.

NFL Pick: Under 46 (Pinnacle)

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St. Louis Rams at Cincinnati Bengals
Point Spread: Bengals -9 (Bovada)
Lowest Total in Market: 41½ (Wynn Las Vegas)
Consensus Total in Market: 42
Highest Total in Market: 42½

Totals Trends, Thoughts: 
The St. Louis Rams (4-6 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) head to Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati to face the Bengals (8-2 SU, 8-1-1 ATS) on Sunday afternoon in this Week 12 inter-conference meeting which is very important to both teams. The last time these two met, the Bengals won 20-13 in 2011 in St. Louis, with the game going Under the posted 38 Total while in the last game here in the Queen City in 2007, Cincinnati won 19-10 with that game also going Under the posted Total of 45½. The Rams and Head Coach Jeff Fisher—who have decided to go with Case Keenum in Week 10 over Nick Foles—have dominated this series ATS over the last decade, with St. Louis going 4-0-1 ATS the L5 overall in this series and 1-3 ATS the L4 here at Home in Cincinnati. But the focus here is the Total and the Under is a sparkling 35-17-1 ATS the L53 Rams Road games while Bengals Unders are 7-1 the L8 games played in November, the only Over coming in Cincinnati’s 34-31 Loss to the Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale on SNF in Week 11. Rams Unders are 7-3 this year but with the Bengals having so many Skill guys and the game in Cincinnati, prefer to just watch.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts 
Point Spread:
Colts -3 (Bovada)
Lowest Total in Market: 46 (Pinnacle)
Consensus Total in Market: 46½
Highest Total in Market: 47 (MGM Mirage)

Totals Trends, Thoughts:
The upstart Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS) and Rookie QB Jameis Winston (5 TD Passes on Sunday) head to Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis to face the Colts (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS, Open Date) and unbeaten Colts backup QB Matt Hasselbeck as starter Andrew Luck (Kidney) sits ailing. The last time these two played, the Colts lost, 24-17 at Tampa Bay in 2011 with the game going Over the posted closing Total of 40 by just 1 point while the last meeting here in Naptown, Indianapolis won, 34-19 with the game going Over the 45 Total in 2007. The Colts—without Rookie WR Phillip Dorsett (Mid-December return expected)—are 5-1 ATS in their L6 against the Buccaneers and the Over is 9-2 ATS the L11 November games for Indianapolis. The Buccaneers and RB Doug Martin (27 rushes, 235 yards, 8.7 ypc) have gone Under 14-3 in the L17 here in Tampa in Week 12 while the Under is 8-2 the L10 Buccaneers games in November.

NFL Pick: Under 47 (MGM Mirage)

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New York Giants at Washington Redskins
Point Spread:
Giants -3 (Bovada)
Lowest Total in Market: 46½
Consensus Total in Market: 47
Highest Total in Market: 47½ (MGM Mirage)

Totals Trends, Thoughts:
Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS) welcome Eli Manning and the New York Giants (5-5 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) to FedExField in Landover, Maryland on Sunday afternoon in this NFC East Week 12 game between two teams in the thick of the divisional race—but then again everyone in the NFC East is still in the thick of the race, right Ralph? The last time these two met on a gridiron was in Week 4 of this Regular Season where New York defeated Washington, 32-21 at Home, with the game soaring Over the closing posted Total while the last meeting here at FedExField in Landover was last season where the Giants rolled 45-14 in Week 3, with that one also going Over the Total of 44½. However, those were exceptions to the rule as the Under is 8-2 ATS the L10 in this NFC East series and the Under is also 11-4 ATS in Washington in the L15 Week 12 games and is 12-5 ATS the L17 Giants games on Grass (FedExField). The G-Men—who announced last week that WR Victor Cruz is done and will be having season-ending Calf Surgery—will be coming off of their Bye Week and will be playing on 13 Days Rest. New York is 5-0 ATS the L5 vs. the Redskins and with unheralded Offensive threats outside of Odell Beckham Jr. now like RB Shane Vereen, WR Rueben Randle (475 yards, 3 TDs, 12.2 ypc), Rookie (Tulane) RB Orleans Darkwa (109 yards, TD) and WR Dwayne harris (12.2 ypc, 4 TDs), are a team to truly be watched and if anyone outside of the Packers and Seahawks are going to rock the Panthers-Cardinals Cozy Cradle in the current NFC, it will be likely these Giants. It’s hard to even lean Under here with the Giants Total Defense numbers. If there were an Over worth mulling, this is it for me as late Fall Temperatures in North America continue to drop.

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Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans
Point Spread:
Raiders -2 (Bovada)
Lowest Total in Market: 42
Consensus Total in Market: 42
Highest Total in Market: 44½

Totals Trends, Thoughts: This Week 12 game from LP Field in Nashville on Sunday sees QB David Carr, Rookie Amari Cooper and the Oakland Raiders (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS) heading to Opryland to face Rookie Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans (2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS) in an AFC inter-divisional game which matters to both teams despite the .500 or sub-.500 records. When these two last played, the Titans won 23-19 at O.co Colisuem in Oakland with the game pushing the poste Total of 42 in 2013 while the last meeting here in the Volunteer State saw the then Lane Kiffin-coached Raiders lose here in Nashville in Week 7 in 2007, 13-9 as the game went Under the 39½ Total. The Over is 13-3 ATS in the L16 Raiders games vs. the AFC, 12-4-1 ATS the L17 in Oakland in Week 12 and the Over is also 9-3-1 ATS in the Raiders L13 overall.

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Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Point Spread: Chiefs -7 (5Dimes)
Lowest Total in Market: 41½
Consensus Total in Market: 42
Highest Total in Market: 42

Totals Trends, Thoughts:
Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) play host to Tyrod Taylor and the Buffalo Bills (5-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Sunday in this huge inter-divisional tilt which will seems to have early AFC Wild Card implications. The last time these two teams met, the Chiefs won outright, 17-13 last year in Buffalo with the game going Under the posted Total of 42 points, while the last meeting here in Missouri was back in 2012 where the Bills won 35-17 outright as the Total went over the 45. The Bills are a dominating 6-2 ATS the L8 ATS overall in the series and 6-1 ATS the L7 on the Road at Arrowhead Stadium and the Over is 6-2 ATSD the L9 Week 12 games for Kansas City. But with the potential AFC Wild Card significance here, this should be tight and the Under is 18-8 the L26 Bills games overall, 9-4-1 ATS the L14 Buffalo games vs the AFC and 9-4 ATS the L13 Road games for the Bills. also, the Under is a powerful 10-3 ATS over the L13 meetings in this series.

NFL Pick: Under 44 -162 (Bet365)

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Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Point Spread: Jets -6½ (BetOnline)
Lowest Total in Market: 42 (CarbonSports.ag)
Consensus Total in Market: 42½
Highest Total in Market: 43 (Catalina)

Totals Trends, Thoughts:
Like the above game, this is another Week 12 date could have AFC Wild Card implications as the New York Jets (5-5 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) welcome the Miami Dolphins (4-6 ATS, 4-6 ATS) to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey next Sunday afternoon in a huge AFC East meeting and possible season-ending Loss for both teams, should that be their Fate. When these two met earlier this Regular Season, New York AFC won 27-14 as 2½-point favorites in Week 4, with the game ducking Under the 42½ Total by 1½ points in Miami Gardens while in this game last season in New Jersey, the Dolphins won 16-13, with that one also going well Under the Total of 41½. Trend-wise, the Under is 22-6 in the Fishies L28 on FieldTurf (MetLife Stadium) although the Over is 7-2 in the Dolphins L9 games vs. the AFC. also, the Under is 14-4 ATS in the L18 Jets games in Week 12. Seems like a stalemate.

NFL Picks: Under 43 (Catalina), 1st Quarter Under

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San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Point Spread: Jaguars -4 (Bovada)
Lowest Total in Market: 46 (Island Casino)
Consensus Total in Market: 46½
Highest Total in Market: 46½

Totals Trends, Thoughts:
Philip Rivers and the crumbling Chargers (2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS) head to EverBank Field in Jacksonville Sunday afternoon to face Blake Bortles and the Jaguars (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) in an AFC inter-divisional date which actually means something to the hosts. The last time these two played was in San Diego in 2014 where the Bolts won 33-14, with the game going over the 45 Total; by 2 points while the last meeting here in the splendid Land of Dangling Chads, the Chargers won 24-6 in 2013 with the game going way Under the Total of 44. The Jaguars will be coming in on 9 Days Rest after beating Tennessee on Thursday Night Football in Week 11 while San Diego is travelling from California (PST) to Florida (EST) and losing 3 Body Clock Hours, basically meaning they will be playing at 10 a.m. their Time and coming off a miserable Loss to the Chiefs at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego on Sunday in Week 10 in which Rivers and veteran TE Antonio Gates got into a chirp-fest late in the game. Would recommend Over but the Chargers are just 1-3 ATS O/U Away and still very beat-up.

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Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Point Spread:
Cardinals -10½ (Bovada)
Lowest Total in Market: 45
Consensus Total in Market: 45s and 45½s (equal)
Highest Total in Market: 45½

Totals Trends, Thoughts:
Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald and the Arizona Cardinals (8-2 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) head to Santa Clara, California and Levi’s Stadium to face Blaine Gabbert and the ghostly San Francisco 49ers (3-7 SU, 4-6) on Sunday afternoon in a Week 12 NFC West meeting. When these two played earlier this season, the Cardinals rolled 47-7 in Week 4, easily going Over the closing posted Total of 45 while the last meeting here in Santa Clara saw Arizona win 20-17 with that one going Under the 38 Total by just 1 last season. San Francisco has scored the least Points in the NFL (139) although Gabbert looked pretty good at times against the Broncos in a Loss to Denver in Week 11. Trend-wise, the Over is 9-2 ATS the L11 Cardinals games overall and 7-2 ATS the L9 on Grass (Levi’s Stadium). Although the Under is a solid 12-2 the L14 49ers games played at Home. Too hard to suggest the Under with the Cardinals having so many healthy and driven Skill guys on Offense, especially right now.

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks
Point Spread:
Seahawks -4 (Bovada)
Lowest Total in Market: 44½ (MGM Mirage)
Consensus Total in Market: 45s and 45½s (equal)
Highest Total in Market: 46 (SportsInteraction)

Totals Trends, Thoughts:
The second-biggest game of Week 12 sees Russell Wilson and the the defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks (5-5 SU, 3-6-1 ATS) play host to star WR Antonio Brown and the rumbling Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4 SU, 5-3-2 ATS) in a big inter-conference meeting for both sides. The last time these two met, the Steelers shut out the Seahawks, 24-0 at Heinz Field in the Steel City in 2011 with the game going Under the posted Total of 40 while the last meeting here at CenturyLink Field in the Emerald City saw the Seahawks win by a 23-16 score at the old Seahawks Stadium in 2003. The Steelers will coming in with 13 Days of Rest with their welcome Bye Week coming in Week 10. With Injuries to starting QB Roethlisberger, C Maurkice Pouncey and RB Le’Veon Bell, this has been a tough season for the Black and Gold so far but they’re still a huge threat in the AFC. Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch (Seahawks) is hurt and may be out here although Thomas Rawls may have snatched his spot the way he has played. Trend-wise, the Under is 7-1 ATS the L8 Steelers games overall and 8-3 ATS in Week 12 while the Over is 6-2 ATS in the L8 Seahawks Home tilts and 19-8 the L27 Seattle games in November where turkeys meet a cruel fate in America.

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New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Point Spread: Patriots -3 (Bovada)
Lowest Total in Market: 43
Consensus Total in Market: 43s and 44s (equal)
Highest Total in Market: 44

Totals Trends, Thoughts:
The defending Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots (9-0 SU, 5-2-2 ATS; vs. Bills on MNF; NFL Odds: Patriots -7, 48½ (SIA) and QB Tom Brady (65-46-1 ATS on Road) head west to Sports Authority Field in Denver to face the Broncos (7-2 SU, 5-3-1 ATS, at Bears Sunday) next Sunday evening in the marquee game of Week 12 and one which will see the hosts going with Brock Osweiler (74% Completions, 52% 3rd Down Conversions on Sunday) at QB over the injured, aging and statistically horrific 39-year-old Peyton Manning. and Osweiler actually looked pretty darn good in Denver’s 17-15 win against the Bears in Chicago on Sunday in Week 10. When these two AFC giants last met, the Patriots hammered the Broncos, 43-21 last season as 3-point favorites in Gillette Stadium with the game rocketing Over the posted Total of 53 while the last meeting here in the Mile High City was in 2011 when the Patriots and Brady rolled to a 41-23 victory as 7-point chalks, with that one also going Over the 47½ Total.. New England—which lost watery WR Julian Edelman for the remainder of the Regular Season to an Injury last week after losing RB Dion Lewis earlier this month—will be losing 2 Body Clock Hours travelling the 1,970 miles from Massachusetts (ET) to Colorado (MT), but with the game at night it won’t really matter and if anything it may seem like a late start to TE Rob Gronkowski and the visitors who will be playing at 5,280 feet Altitude. The Patriots are 6-2 ATS the L8 in this high-profile series and there’s a reason they’re such solid Point Spread chalks on the Road against the best D in the NFL in the Broncos (182 Points Allowed). The Patriots are an elite football team that focuses on playing one game at a time, a decent approach for Life itself. With Broncos Unders 9-1 in the 1st Quarter this year and New England and Brady looking so sluggish on MNF vs. the Bills, backing the Under despite the Offensive reps.

NFL Picks: Under 46 -162 (bet365), 1st Quarter Under

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Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Point Spread:
Ravens -3 Even (Bovada)
Lowest Total in Market: 41 (Pinnacle)
Consensus Total in Market: 41s and 41½ 
Highest Total in Market: 41½

Totals Trends, Thoughts:
The Baltimore Ravens (3-7 SU, 1-7-2 ATS) head to FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland on next Monday night to face the Browns (2-8 SU, 3-6-1 ATS) in an AFC North primetime TV matchup. Cleveland (4-0 Over at Home) will be coming in well-rested off their Open Date and have put QB Johnny Manziel at the #3 spot on the Depth Chart and are not a good team as the Point Spread reflects while the Ravens saw starting QB Joe Flacco (Knee, torn ACL and MCL) get hurt and go Out for the season in Sunday’s 16-13 Win over the Rams in Baltimore. The last time these two played, the Ravens lost 33-30 at Home in Baltimore earlier this season with the game going Over the posted 43 Total while the last meeting here in Cleveland, the Ravens won 23-21 in Week 3 last season with the game trickling Over the posted Total of 43 by point. With the Under 7-2 ATS the L9 Browns games in November and the Under 7-3 ATS the L10 meetings in this series—despite the L2 Overs—it’s tempting to take the Under here but both these AFC North teams have nothing to lose and the game is somewhat meaningless so it’s hard to gauge Defensive intent here on Crab City.

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NFL WEEK 12 FREE TOTALS NFL Picks: Vikings-Falcons Under 46 (Pinnacle); Colts-Buccaneers Under 47 (MGM Mirage); Bills-Chiefs Under 44 -162 (bet365); Jets Dolphins Under 43 (Catalina), Jets-Dolphins 1st Quarter Under; Patriots-Broncos-Under 46 -162 (bet365), Patriots-Broncos 1st Quarter Under