NFL Picks: Game by Game Winning Over/Under Bets for Week 6

Nikki Adams

Thursday, October 15, 2015 7:35 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 15, 2015 7:35 PM UTC

We look at the OVER-UNDER NFL odds for each and every game and serve up our predictions. Check out the complete rundown for week 6 NFL betting before placing your bets at the bookies.

Week 5 Recap
Week 5 was just one of those lopsided weeks where we did fabulously on our ATS NFL picks (11-3) well on our SU NFL picks (9-5) and downright miserably on our total picks (3-11). In fact, we can’t recall a worse record for our total picks (See Table 1), not just this season but in all the seasons we’ve made predictions.

***NFL Week 6 ATS Picks***
***NFL Week 6 ML Picks***
***NFL Week 6 Player Props***
***NFL Week 6 Team Props***

Table 1: Breaking Down Weekly Game-by-Game NFL Picks Records





Week 1 – 16 Games




Week 2 – 16 Games




Week 3 – 16 Games




Week 4 – 15 Games




Week 5 – 14 Games




Total – 77 Games




In any event, we’re moving on, ploughing ahead with week 6 NFL picks. It’s going to be a bounce back week.

Falcons vs. Saints
After opening on 50.5 points, the NFL line has inched up to 51-points across most sports betting platforms with the public (according to Vegas Insider) leaning heavily on the OVER. Typically, we don’t go with the public but we are inclined to agree here despite the high total. The main reason is the Saints are just god-awful, with no defense to speak of and an ailing offense to boot. This could get ugly if the Falcons get rolling. The Falcons are third in the league with 32.4-points scored per game. Falcons are 2-3 in O/U betting this season with only two games combining to go OVER 50-points: the 48-21 win over the Texans and the 39-28 win over the Cowboys. Both those featured sides struggling something awful this season just like the Saints though, which goes towards explaining the allure of the OVER in NFL betting circles for such a high number. The opening clash with the Eagles finished on 50-points exactly (26-24), while the Giants rush defense and the Redskins overall defense held the Falcons to low scoring affairs. The Saints, meanwhile, are 3-2 in O/U betting, largely down to conceding a lot of points – 29th in points allowed with 28 points per game says it all. The Saints offense simply is struggling to make p for the deficit and scores just 20.6 points per game.
NFL Picks: OVER 51 (-110) 5Dimes

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Cardinals vs. Steelers
The NFL betting lines opened on 45.5 but have since come down to a low of 44-points on the NFL odds board. Overwhelmingly, the public is leaning on the OVER in this game with approximately 90% of money recorded by Vegas Insider. That’s quite the one-sided view, underscored by the fact that the Cardinals are a perfect 5-0 in O/U betting this season. Going against that mark is Pittsburgh’s 1-4 O/U betting record. That said their last two games with Michael Vick as the starter have hit the UNDER by just mere points.

It comes down to which side is going to dictate play here as well which side of the ball is going to emerge dominant. The Cardinals lead the league with 38-points scored per game, but if we look at the opponents they’ve steamrolled none boast a winning record through five weeks of the NFL season – Saints, Bears, Niners, Rams and Lions are all enjoying their own struggles this season. What’s more all those defenses have been shabby at best ranking at the bottom of the league, between 26-to-32, with the Rams only ranking midway at 16th

The Steelers pose a different kettle of fish for Carson Palmer and the Cardinals, mainly with a defense that is allowing just 19 points per game that puts them in seventh place in the league for fewest points allowed. That fact suggests the UNDER might be the better play here.
NFL picks: UNDER 44.5 (-110) at 5Dimes

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Bears vs. Lions
Both the Bears and Lions are 2-3 in O/U betting this season. The Bears are riding a three-game UNDER streak, which coincides with their two-game winning streak. The Lions, meanwhile, had their three-game UNDER streak snapped by the Cardinals in a 42-17 loss, which saw the Cardinals put up most of the points to crack the 48-point total trading. Neither offense has found its rhythm yet this season: the Bears are averaging 17.2-points per game and the Lions are averaging 16.6 points per game, which puts the pair in the league’s basement. Based on those stats alone, we’re leaning towards the UNDER.
NFL Picks: UNDER 43.5 (-110) at Pinnacle

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Bengals vs. Bills
The Bengals are 4-1 in O/U betting while the Bills are 2-3 in O/U betting. Bengals are riding a three-game OVER streak and averaging, a run that includes an average of 30.3-points scored per game. On the season, they are scoring an average of 29.6-points per game. The Bills, meanwhile, are averaging 24.8-points per game, but their last couple of outings have seen the UNDER cash and a low of 12-points per game scored over those two games. The NFL betting line opened on 45-points but has since come down to a low of 43.5, largely down to reports of Tyrod Taylor’s questionable status for the game along with other offensive injuries.
NFL Picks: OVER 42 (-110) at Bet365

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Broncos vs. Browns
The Broncos defense has been dictating throughout the season, contributing significantly towards Denver’s 1-4 record in O/U betting. The Browns, however, are a perfect 5-0 in O/U betting this season. Question is how will their offense stack up against one of the league’s top defenses? Another question to consider is how will the Browns defense stack up against Peyton Manning and Co.? They are conceding a whopping 26.4-points per game and they have one of the worst rushing defenses in the league.  The NFL betting line is rather low at 42-points at most sportsbooks. It’s tempting to go with the UNDER when considering just the Broncos’ defense. However, the Broncos are averaging 22.6-points per game and the Browns 23.6-points per game. If those NFL trends hold true, the game could go just OVER.
NFL Picks: OVER 42 (-110) at Bet365

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Texans vs. Jaguars
The Texans are 3-1-1 in O/U betting but not behind anything their offense has done through the first five games with Ryan Mallet calling the shots. The Jaguars are 3-2 in O/U betting, similarly not behind an offensive output. Texans are averaging just 19.4-points per game while the Jaguars are averaging just 18.6-points per game. Predictably, the total is set to a low 42-to-43.5-points. Reports are that Brian Hoyer will start and he’s shown a knack for moving the Texans offense. Plus, the Jaguars seemed to click last week when they put up a season high of 31 points. Question is whether they can do it again? We thing the Texans get their offense going but the defense stifles the Jaguars.
NFL Picks: UNDER 43.5 (-110) at 5Dimes

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Chiefs vs. Vikings
The Kansas City Chiefs are in the doldrums and things aren’t looking up with a fresh wave of injuries hitting their squad. They are 4-1 in O/U betting and their offense is averaging 23.4-points per game. The Vikings are coming off a bye with a 0-4 record in O/U betting, largely down to a stingy defense.  All things point to a low-scoring game here in our opinion.
NFL Picks: UNDER 44.5 (-110) Westgate

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Dolphins vs. Titans
With a revamped coaching staff in Miami it’s difficult to predict accurately what to expect from this game in any NFL betting market.  So far, Miami are 2-2 in O/U betting while Tennessee are 3-1 in O/U betting. What those stats don’t reveal is the fact that the offenses of both teams have struggled in recent weeks. Dolphins have averaged 14-points per game in their last two and the Titans have averaged 23-points per game. Safer option appears to be the UNDER here but we’re feeling no joy.
NFL Picks: UNDER 43.5 (-110) at 5Dimes

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Redskins vs. Jets
The defenses of both teams are nothing to sniff at which largely explains why this game opened on a low 41.5-point total and has steadily gone down to 40.5-points. Jets have allowed the fewest points against of 13.8 while the Redskins are not far behind with 18.3 points against. If both defenses dominate, this game has every likelihood of going UNDER, even such low total.
NFL Picks UNDER 40.5 (-110) at Bet365

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Panthers vs. Seahawks
Panthers are 2-1-1 in O/U betting and averaging 27-points per game scored and 17.8-points per game conceded. Seahawks are 2-3 in O/U betting and averaging 22.2-points per game scored and 19.6-points per game conceded. Overwhelmingly, NFL bettors are leaning towards the UNDER in this game (Vegas Insider reveals over 80% are pounding the UNDER). We’re of the mind to fade the public here and shade the OVER 40.5-points for this game.
NFL Picks: OVER 40.5 (-110) at Bet365

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Ravens vs. Niners
The Ravens are 3-2 in O/U betting largely down to a defense that is leaking 27.4-points per game. On the offensive side of the ball, they are scoring 24.6-points per game. The Niners’ stunted offense seemingly came to life last weekend in a 30-27 loss to the NY Giants. It remains to be seen whether they can continue that form in week 6 NFL betting. They too are 3-2 in O/U betting – albeit two of those were massive blowout losses best forgotten by Niners’ fans. This is a tossup on our NFL picks because it’s difficult to get a sense of either of these two teams. We flipped a coin. OVER it is.
NFL Picks: OVER 43.5 (-110) at 5Dimes

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Chargers vs. Packers
The Packers and Chargers collide in week 6 NFL betting on Sunday Night Football at Lambeau. By all accounts, this should be a lively affair between two sides that can really put up the points in a hurry. Packers are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATs this season, but 2-3 in O/U betting. At home, they are 1-2 in O/U betting this season. That they’ve scored on the UNDER more than the OVER might surprise some NFL bettors. It’s down to two things: high totals above 45-points trading on the NFL odds board and some good defenses staring them down both home and away. Chargers, meanwhile, are 2-3 in O/U betting with the OVER cashing only once when the total was trading above 45-points. Our initial inclination was the UNDER 50-point total but seeing as it’s a Sunday Night clash and the atmosphere is sure to be electric at Lambeau, we’re slightly going towards the OVER 50 on our NFL picks.
NFL Picks: OVER 50 (-110) at BetOnline

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Patriots vs. Colts
Vindication for the Patriots is the undercurrent for this game, an opportunity to whoop the Colts yet again but this time fuelled by anger and resentment for causing such a hoopla over the pigskins. Sportsbooks, predictably, have rolled out the highest total of the week for this game with 54.5-to-55-points across most platforms. Undoubtedly, the Patriots can be trusted to put up the points on any given day. In the face of a rather weak defense, one imagines they’ll take the Colts to the woodshed and show them a thing or two. By all accounts, this could get really ugly. It’s still uncertain whether Andrew Luck will play or whether Hasselbeck will continue filling the role. It might not matter too much to the score-line though as Brady and the Patriots have been chomping at the bit for this game.
NFL Picks: OVER 54.5 (-110) at Bet365

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Giants vs. Eagles
The Giants and Eagles are set to collide in MNF with the game set to a high of 50-points or thereabouts depending on your sportsbook of choice. The Giants are 3-2 in O/U betting while the Eagles are (surprisingly) just 1-4 in O/U betting. In the last two games the Eagles have averaged almost 30-points per game. Similarly, the Giants are hitting their stride in recent weeks averaging 28.7 points in their last three accounts. If those NFL betting trends hold true, we could be in for a shootout in MNF. OVER is our choice NFL pick as such.
NFL Picks: OVER 49.5 (-110) at Bet365

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