NFL Picks: Game-by-Game Totals Betting Guide for Week 3

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, September 23, 2015 10:03 PM GMT

Wednesday, Sep. 23, 2015 10:03 PM GMT

We’re running down the entire slate of NFL betting action in week 3 and serving up choice NFL picks for each and every game against the totals. Find out where the value picks are before placing your bets.

NFL Betting Week 2 Recap
At the close of week 2 NFL betting, we went a so-so 6-10 with our over-under picks, to extend our record over two weeks to 15-17-0.   It’s worth noting that overall NFL betting trends reveal the OVER edges the UNDER just 16-15-1 on the season so far in NFL betting

Week 1 Record: 9-7-0
Week 2 Record: 6-10-0

So without any prevarication, let’s delve into the coming week’s NFL odds and serve up NFL picks that will improve our handicapping record.

 

Redskins vs. Giants O/U 44
After two rounds of NFL betting, the Redskins are 1-1 SU and ATS and 0-2 in OVER-UNDER betting. Giants, by comparison, are 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS and OVER-UNDER. Past trends between these two outfits show that the UNDER has cashed in five of the last five games when playing in NY. Take that along with the fact that the Washington Redskins currently boast a defense that ranks first in total defense and perhaps the best NFL pick here is the UNDER.

NFL Picks: UNDER 44  at 5Dimes

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Falcons vs. Cowboys O/U 45
The Cowboys are without Tony Romo so the offense is going to look entirely different and we can’t take anything from the first two games of the season into account here. On the flipside, Matt Ryan and the Falcons can put up the points quickly and their defense is playing well for new head coach Dan Quinn. Dallas have gone 1-1 OVER-UNDER this season while the Falcons are 0-2-0 OVER-UNDER.

NFL Picks: UNDER 45 at BetOnline

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Bengals vs. Ravens O/U 44.5
The Bengals are 1-1 in OVER-UNDER betting this season after beating up on the Raiders 33-13 (OVER) and then edging the Chargers 24-19 (in a game that went just UNDER the 45.5-point total). The Ravens similarly are 1-1 in OVER-UNDER betting after a narrow 19-13 loss to the Broncos that cashed on the UNDER and a topsy-turvy 37-33 loss in Oakland, a right shocker in every respect. Last season, they also split the meetings 1-1 in OVER-UNDER to extend their OVER-UNDER record to 3-3 in the last six meetings. Clearly, this game could go either way on our NFL Picks. Our initial instinct is to go UNDER just because the defences on both teams are pretty good, sixth and eleventh in total defense. We’re going to go with the OVER 44.5 on our NFL Picks.

NFL Picks: OVER 44.5 at 5Dimes

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Colts vs. Titans O/U 45.5
The NFL betting line opened at 48 for this game but was promptly brought down to 45-points, which is a dramatic 3-point drop down largely to Andrew Luck’s rather pedestrian account over the first two weeks of the season. This may be the second season in a row that the Colts have gone 0-2 SU to start, but they didn’t look so out of sync or awful then, in back-to-back losses to the Broncos and Eagles. What’s up with Luck and the Colts is a matter of heated debate this week. Perhaps, the pressure of being a top fave for the Super Bowl got to them at the start of the season (they aren’t anymore).

By and large, the expectation is that the Colts will bounce back behind a performance more like the Andrew Luck of the past few seasons. A notion based on past experience rather than current perception. Fact is the Colts have scored just 21 points in two games, barely averaging 11 points per game and they’ve leaked 47 points in the process, which is 23.5-points per game. (Titans have scored 56 points and conceded 42). What’s more, Titans’ pass defense currently ranks third in the league and they could give Luck some headaches. This could go either way, but we’re leaning towards the OVER ever so slightly.

NFL Picks: OVER 45 at BetOnline

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Jaguars vs. Patriots O/U 47
The Patriots have scored 63 points in two games and conceded 53 points, but they are just 1-1 in OVER-UNDER betting thanks to contrasting totals in each game. Against the Steelers the total was trading at 51-points or more while against the Bills it was set to 45-points or thereabouts across sportsbooks. Jaguars, meanwhile, are 1-1 in OVER-UNDER betting as well after cashing on the OVER in week 2’s win over the Dolphins, which was trading at 41.5-points. The way Tom Brady has picked apart the Steelers and Bills, scoring 7 touchdowns and throwing no interceptions, has us leaning towards the OVER in this game. He really could light up against a young team that might be overwhelmed on its first road trip of the season, which features the Super Bowl champions.

NFL Picks: OVER 47 at BetOnline

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Saints vs. Panthers O/U 45
The Saints are struggling something huge in every aspect, from not being able to buy a win no matter how hard they try to faltering against perceived lightweights. They haven’t been able to produce viable offense, scoring just 38 points. And defense has been merrily undoing anything offense accomplishes by conceding 57 points in just two games. Almost 30-points conceded on average! Yikes.  Panthers are 0-1-1 in OVER-UNDER betting in two rounds.

NFL Picks: UNDER 45 at Bet365

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Raiders vs. Browns O/U 41.5
Word is Josh McCown is starting the game for the Browns after missing the first few weeks with a concussion in week 1 NFL betting. How that impacts the OVER-UNDER remains to be seen. Cleveland are 2-0-0 in OVER-UNDER betting, both games set to the tune of 40-to-41 points and cracking that mark rather comfortably. The Raiders are also 2-0-0 in OVER-UNDER betting, with their last outing producing a 37-33 win over the Ravens. The 41.5 to 42-points (in some cases) seems a touch low so we’re going with the OVER on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Over 41.5 at BetOnline

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Eagles vs. Jets O/U 46.5
The Philadelphia Eagles offense has stagnated since the preseason, slipping to an 0-2 SU record. Meanwhile, the Jets are punching above their weight class with a 2-0 SU record on the season. Eagles are 0-2 in OVER-UNDER betting while the Jets are 1-1 in OVER-UNDER betting. The most illuminating stat is the fact that the Jets have allowed just 17 points against in two games, all while scoring 51 points. The Eagles, by comparison, have scored 34 points and conceded 46 points. This game could go either way, but one gets the sense it’s only a matter of time before Chip Kelly’s offense lights up.

NFL Picks: OVER 46.5 at BetOnline

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Steelers vs. Rams O/U 47.5
If Big Ben has quite the same big night he did against the San Francisco 48ers, the Steelers alone could crush this total. Question is whether he can string together back-to-back monster performances? Perhaps, with Le'Veon Bell back he can. The Rams were underwhelming in week 2 in a 24-10 loss to the Redskins, a week after hanging a 34-31 loss in overtime on the Seahawks. This game can go in either direction as both are 1-1 in OVE-UNDER betting behind contrasting accounts.

NFL Picks: OVER 47.5 at Bet365

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Chargers vs. Vikings O/U 45
The Chargers are 1-1 in OVER-UNDER betting this season and are averaging 26-points per game in scoring and conceding the exact same. The Vikings are 0-2 in OVER-UNDER betting and boast one of the lowest scoring offenses after two games at 14.5 points, largely skewed by their 20-3 loss to the Niners in week 1 NFL betting.

NFL Picks: UNDER 45 at BetOnline

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Buccaneers vs. Texans O/U 40.5
The Buccaneers are 1-1 in OVER-UNDER betting while the Texans are 1-0-1 in OVE-UNDER betting this season. Both sides are averaging rather low scores so far, with the Bucs emerging on 20-points per game and the Texans on 18-points per game. Those averages are pretty close and put us snug on a 40.5-point total, which could go either way really. It’s so low the total, however, that we’re leaning towards the OVER ever so slightly.

NFL Picks: OVER 40.5 at 5Dimes

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Niners vs. Cardinals O/U 44
Consider the Arizona Cardinals are averaging 39.5-points per game after two rounds, which is the highest in the league, the 44-point total seems a little bit too low. The Cards are 2-0 in OVER-UNDER betting and they’ve conceded 42-points in two games, which is an average of 21-points. On the strength of those numbers alone, we have a good case for an OVER bet on our NFL picks, don’t you think?

NFL Picks: OVER 44  at Bet365

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Bills vs. Dolphins O/U 43
The Bills defense is renowned and Rex Ryan has established a name for himself as a defensive guru. But this Bills team can score points. They are averaging 29.5 points per game in just two games and against some hot offenses too with the Colts in week 1 and the Patriots in week 2. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are averaging just 18.5-points per game and conceding 16.5-points per game. This one is a right tossup on our NFL picks and it could go either way.

NFL Picks: OVER 43 at BetOnline

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Bears vs. Seahawks O/U 44
The Seahawks defense is in trouble after two rounds and not looking quite so formidable as in years past. On the offensive side of the ball, they are averaging 24-points per game. The Bears are not far behind with 23-points per game scored. Where they’ve come up severely short is on the defensive side of the ball mainly, allowing 79-points over two games or 39.5 per game. Yikes. Another good case for the OVER, if things go according to those concerning numbers.

NFL Picks: OVER 44 at Bet365

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Broncos vs. Lions O/U 49
The Broncos’ defense has been making big plays since week 1 and the offense looks to be coming together if week 2 were any indication. Broncos are 1-1 in OVER-UNDER betting, having held the Ravens to a 19-13 win in week 1 and beating the Chiefs 31-24 in week 2. It remains to be seen which Broncos’ team shows up in week 3 NFL betting, but we’re leaning towards the UNDER 48-points right now, given the offensive issues that the Detroit Lions are suffering and that could get worse if Matthew Stafford is ruled out this weekend.

NFL Picks: OVER 44.5 (-105) at Pinnacle

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Chiefs vs. Packers O/U 49
The Green Bay Packers are 1-1 in OVER-UNDER betting after beating the Bears 31-23 in week 1 to crack the 50-point total. In week 2, they beat the Seahawks 27-17, coming just UNDER the 47.5-point total. The Packers are averaging 29-points per game scored. The Chiefs present a different challenge at Lambeau; it’s the first time Aaron Rodgers takes on Alex Smith and Company at Lambeau, who are 2-0 in OVER-UNDER betting and have scored and conceded 51-points in two games, which is an average of 25.5-points per game scored and conceded. If both offenses dictate the game, this could go OVER 49 points easily.

NFL Picks: OVER 49 at Bookmaker

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