NFL Picks: Game-by-Game Total Predictions for Week 5

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, October 7, 2015 10:30 PM GMT

Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2015 10:30 PM GMT

Another week of NFL. Another week of game-by-game predictions for the totals. Join us as we rundown through the slate and serve up our choice NFL picks.

NFL Week 4 Betting Recap
It was a modest week for us with our total picks as we finished 8-6-1 in week 4. Overall, we improved to 31-31-1 through four weeks of handicapping the totals. We’re happy to be in the green, but not satisfied on the whole. We can do better.. 

 

Colts vs. Texans
In over-under betting, the Colts are 1-3 while the Texans are 2-1-1. In the first two games, the Colts mustered up just 21-points combined. The only game to combine for 31-plus points was their shootout win over the Titans in week 3 NFL betting. In spite of these rather subpar numbers by the Colts the total is trading at a high 45-points. Seems a bit optimistic. Texans defense can give Andrew Luck some fits if they go after him as previous opponents have – he has a league-leading seven interceptions and has been sacked five times. Then again, there’s a sense that this game is going to be explosive in Thursday Night Football betting. Whether it is because Luck sparks to life against the Texans or the Texans look to rebound after suffering their worst defeat in franchise history in week 4 NFL betting.

NFL Picks: OVER 44.5 at 5Dimes

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Bills vs. Titans
The Tennessee Titans are a perfect 3-0 in O/U betting behind rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota, whose numbers in his first three career starts are pretty impressive. The No.2 draft pick has 8 TDs, 2 INT and 12 sacks, all of which combines for a 109.2 QB rating. Tyrod Taylor also has 8 TDs 4 INT and 10 sacks for a 104.4 QBR. The Bills are 2-2 in O/U betting this season. Bills are averaging 27.5-points per game and Titans are averaging 29.67-points per game. Whichever way you slice this game on your NFL picks SU and ATS, for the total you must agree the OVER does hold a certain appeal.

NFL Picks: OVER 42 at BetOnline

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Bears vs. Chiefs
The clash between the Bears and Chiefs features a pair of 1-3 SU teams. The Chiefs are a perfect 4-0 in O/U betting this season while the Bears are 2-2 in O/U betting, with the common denominator being that most of the points pushing the total into the OVER range have come against them. What’s more, neither side is coming off a particularly impressive account in week 4. Chiefs were reduced to seven field goals in Cincinnati while the Bears barely edged the Raiders in a 22-20 win.

The Chiefs are averaging 25 points scored and 32.25 conceded while the Bears are averaging 17 points scored and 31.25 conceded. (If we take out the bagel Clausen served up against the Seahawks, the Bears, with Jay Cutler calling the shots, are averaging 22-points scored and 33-points conceded). That’s enough of a case for the OVER, if only just.

NFL Picks: OVER 44.5 

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Browns vs. Ravens
The divisional clash between the Ravens and Browns features in week 5 NFL betting, with both sides sporting 1-3 SU records and looking to turnaround their season. The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Baltimore’s last 19 home games. The UNDER has cashed in seven of the last nine meetings between this pair both home and away. This season Cleveland is a perfect 4-0 in O/U betting thanks largely to low totals posted for their games from 38-to-44. The Ravens are 2-2 in O/U betting, with the UNDER cashing against the Denver Broncos and Steelers, two sides that sport pretty good defences this season. Cleveland’s defense is nothing to write home about, propping up the league in total defense, sitting 22nd against the pass and 31st in the league against the rush.

NFL Picks: UNDER 43 at YouWager

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Jaguars vs. Bucs
Both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 2-2 in O/U betting, thanks to the fact that both teams allow some of the highest points against – Jaguars allow 26.8 points against while the Bucs allow 29.3 points against. Both offenses are struggling though through four games: Bucs are accounting for just 18 points per game while the Bucs are accounting for 15 points a game. By the strength of their offensive stats (or lack thereof) we’re leaning towards the UNDER on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: UNDER 42 

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Saints vs. Eagles
The Eagles were supposed to be an explosive offense this season while the Saints were supposed to be more competitive. Neither has happened yet. Eagles are 0-4 in O/U betting this season while the Saints are 2-2 in O/U betting.

Might it happen this week when they collide in Philly? With a high 48.5-to-49-point total trading on this game it does seem  NFL odds makers expect both teams to spark to life. Consensus betting reveals the public agrees as 65% of early money has come down the wire towards the OVER. We’re of a mind to fade the public and back the UNDER 49.

NFL Picks: UNDER 49 at Bet365

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Seahawks vs. Bengals
Since week 1, the Seahawks have consistently cashed on the UNDER. By contrast, the Bengals are 3-1 in O/U betting and averaging 29.7-points per game scored. This game comes down to which team dictates the pace. If it is the former, there’s a strong case for the UNDER. If it’s the latter, the OVER looks appealing because the Seahawks will be forced to keep up on the scoreboard. This one is a tossup on our NFL picks. Consensus betting reveals the UNDER is gaining traction with over 70% of early money going towards a low-scoring affair. Out of principle, we’re fading the public. So it’s the slight OVER for us on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: OVER 43 

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Rams vs. Packers
The Rams and Packers collide in a highly-anticipated showdown. The Rams have upended two NFC contenders already by beating the Seahawks and Cardinals, both games going OVER pre-set totals. Everybody worth their salt in NFL betting knows that the Packers are phenomenal at home. It’s a high total that is riding on this game of 46-points or thereabouts depending on your sportsbook of choice, but the OVER looks compelling if Nick Foles and Aaron Rodgers can turn this into a shootout.

NFL Picks: OVER 46 at Bovada

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Redskins vs. Falcons
The Falcons took the Texans to the woodshed last week. The Falcons are amongst the highest scoring teams with an average of 34.3-points per game and they don’t look to be slowing down anytime soon with the easiest schedule in the NFL. Washington Redskins, meanwhile, are only putting up 19.5-points per game but on the defensive side of the ball they’ve been solid and are allowing just 19.8-points per game. Consensus betting reveals a heavy lean towards the OVER with 83% of bets, but that’s just a reaction to last week’s 48-21 blowout.

NFL Picks: UNDER 48 

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Cardinals vs. Lions
Winless Lions are desperate to get into the win column but their offense looks to one-dimensional. Until last week, the Cardinals were flying high and their offense was one of the most potent in the league. Going into week 5, things don’t look so hot on either side of the coin. That said Arizona are still averaging 37-points per game, which is the second highest tally after the Patriots, and their defense is leaking just 18-points per game.

NFL Picks: UNDER 44 at TheGreek

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Broncos vs. Raiders
The Broncos have traditionally exploded offensively against the Raiders, including last season when they deposited 40-plus points in both games. Odds makers don’t seem to be impressed by the Broncos’ offense this season, setting the spread in single-digits for the first time in three years and rolling out a rather low 43.5-point total. We’re thinking this is the game Peyton Manning sparks to life and lifts the Broncos to a big road win.

NFL Picks OVER 43.5 

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Patriots vs. Cowboys
The Patriots offense is putting up a league-leading 39.7-points through just three games. Keep in mind, they had a bye week and during that time no team closed in on that point tally. In week 5, they take on a Tony-Romo-less Cowboys, which corners the game in their camp in the minds of NFL bettors and odds makers alike. And the way they’ve steamrolled through their first three games, it’s hard to imagine the Brady-juggernaut slowing down.

NFL Picks: OVER 49.5 at Heritage

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Niners vs. Giants
The Niners have struggled on both sides of the ball. On the offensive side of the ball, they are a league’s worst team with 12-points scored per game. On the defensive side of the ball, they are conceding a whopping 27.5-points per game. With all the issues and question marks that hang over the Niners, it’s hard to imagine they’ll be resolved in a week. Giants meanwhile are conceding 20.5-points per game and scoring 25.5-points per game. This game could go either way, but we’ve a view towards the UNDER on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: UNDER 43 

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Steelers vs. Chargers
The Steelers and Chargers collide in Monday Night Football betting, a highly-anticipated clash since the Steelers showed they can compete without Big Ben and Philip Rivers sailed to the top of the offensive leaders charts last week in total yards at 1248. Tom Brady still leads 371 yards per game though, with Rivers in third with 312 yards per game, 8 TDs, 4 INT and 12 sacks. Obviously, this game would have been much more interesting with Big Ben playing. Nevertheless, the Steelers have plenty of offensive weapons to roll out against the Chargers. Both teams are averaging 24-points per game scored, which is just slightly higher than the 45.5-point total riding on this game. If both can live up to their offensive promise, this could be a shootout.

NFL Picks: OVER 45.5 at Pinnacle

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