NFL Picks - Game-by-Game O/U Breakdown For Week 2

Broncos cheerleaders performing

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, September 14, 2016 3:20 PM GMT

Wednesday, Sep. 14, 2016 3:20 PM GMT

The second week of the NFL is on the cards along with a full serving of NFL odds. We break down the matchups and serve up NFL picks for the total lines trading.

Complete Week 1 NFL Betting Trends:
Home vs. Away: 6-8 SU, 4-8-2 ATS
Favorites vs. Underdogs: 9-5 SU, 5-7-2 ATS
Over vs. Under: 8-6


Weekly Game-by-Game Picks Columns SU, ATS, and Total
It was a resounding win all across the board for our game-by-game NFL picks, finishing with winning records in all categories (see below).


Nikki Adams Game-by-Game Picks Record Week 1
Week 1 SU: 13-3-0  (Season Total: 13-3-0)
Week 1 ATS: 12-4-0  (Season Total: 12-4-0)
Week 1 Total: 10-5-1  (Season Total: 10-5-1)

After such a successful week there’s the danger of the hangover effect spilling into week 2. It’s a common downfall. Hopefully, we avoid It with the ensuing game-by-game NFL week 2 predictions.


Thursday, September 15th, 2016

NY Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
The Thursday Night Football clash between the Jets and Bills hangs on a rather low 40.5-point line at the time of writing, down from an opening 42.5-points. The total shortening on the NFL odds board has a lot to do with the volume of UNDER betting. Clearly, bettors fancy the UNDER after the concentrated account by the Jets defense to stifle the Bengals offense and, not least, the offensive gaff served up by the Bills in Baltimore. (We’d wager a lot more of the latter has the total trending down). 

Both BetOnline and Heritage, both offering sign up bonuses, are amongst the many sportsbooks dangling the low total of 40.5 with attractive juice on both sides of the coin. Pinnacle take it a step further with a low of 40-points on the NFL odds board. For our money, we’re feeling a bit contrarian. We’re going for the OVER on our NFL picks and that will become an even more attractive play if the total continues to trend negatively and dips below 40.


Free NFL Picks: OVER 40 -109 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Sunday, September 18th, 2016

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Bengals came up against a stiff defense and struggled to find the red zone. Case-and-point Dalton was sacked 7 times. The Steelers put in a clinic against the Redskins on both sides of the ball, putting up 38 points and forcing two interceptions. As far as this game is concerned, the total ranges from 48 to 49 points depending on your choice sportsbook, which is a point difference that could prove a deciding for OVER and UNDER cashing. The trends point to the UNDER between these two teams cashing – six of the last seven have gone UNDER at Heinz Field. That said, it’s hard to ignore the way the Steelers offense lit up the nation’s capital last week. If they do so again at Heinz Field, Andy Dalton will be forced to respond in kind and he does have the offensive weapons to do it with. Maybe the OVER is the smarter NFL pick.


Free NFL Picks: OVER 48 -110 
Best Line Offered: at BetCris

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Tennessee Titans vs. Detroit Lions
When a defense is as porous as the Lions defense so clearly is if we take the 35-34 win at Lucas Oil at face value that puts the onus on the offense to respond. Matthew Stafford did so successfully against the Colts but he won’t always be so lucky. The Titans might relish this matchup as they search for their first win of the season. Marcus Mariota and the Titans lost to the Vikings defense in week 1, but week 2 serves up a different ball game.


Free NFL Picks: OVER 47 -105 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns offense was abysmal in the preseason and it looked awful in week 1 in a 29-10 loss to the Eagles. However, things might look different this weekend on that side of the ball with Josh McCown calling the shots in relief duty for the now injured RGIII. Baltimore Ravens struggled to move the ball in week 1 when they faced the Bills at M&T but some of that is down to the Bills’ defense, who was sacked 4 times. Against the Browns, though, Flacco might not face as much resistance.


Free NFL Picks: UNDER 43 -110 
Best Line Offered: at JustBet

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Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins
It was the first game of the season and Kirk Cousins was bound to feel the pressure of expectations to back up last season. He was erratic and jittery and his throws were largely off the mark. Perhaps, now that the monkey is off his back he’ll relax and settle into his groove. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys had a decent turnout but it wasn’t enough to deliver the win. It was the first game of the season for the seventh round draft pick, reasonable to expect growing pains. How this game will turn out is anybody’s guess but, undoubtedly, both sides will need to be better on both sides of the ball.


Free NFL Picks: OVER 45 -105 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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New Orleans Saints vs. NY Giants
Everybody and their grandmother will be betting the OVER on this game, given last week’s shootout at the Superdome that resulted in one of the week’s highest scores. Then there is the last meeting between this pair that served up a combined total of 101 points scored and 13 touchdowns by the tandem of Drew Brees and Eli Manning. As a result, this game boasts the highest total on the NFL odds board in week 2. Given these recent NFL betting trends, it’s hard not to tickle the OVER.


Free NFL Picks: OVER 52.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Carolina Panthers
The Niners held the Rams scoreless in MNF, proving their defense is still a force to contend with to some extent. Then again, it’s the Rams and, frankly, they were hyped up for no good reason. The Panthers are going to be a different prospect altogether and while the Niners defense can be expected to show up, can the same be said of the offense? We’ve yet to see a Blaine Gabbert-inspired Niners team beat a side of quality, let alone put up points against a pretty good defense.


Free NFL Picks: UNDER 45.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek

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Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
The Patriots are coming off an upset over the Arizona Cardinals, a 23-21 victory that saw the UNDER 47-48 total cash. The Miami Dolphins, meanwhile, are coming off a paltry 12-10 defeat at CenturyLink Field that saw the UNDER 44 well and truly cash. Given the defensive accounts of both teams mainly in week 1, the total offered up for this clash is a low 41.5 points, down from an opening 42.5 points. Granted the Dolphins defense is no slouch, but this is Gillette Stadium’s season opener and the atmosphere is sure to be electric. Now that Jimmy Garoppolo has his first NFL start under his belt, might he swing for the fences more freely?


Free NFL Picks: OVER 41.5 -105 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans
Although both these teams have renowned defenses the offenses can’t be overlooked, especially Alex Smith and Company after they orchestrated one of the best comebacks in franchise history last weekend. Keep in mind, the Chiefs posted 30 points against the Texans in their last meeting in the wildcard round of the playoffs. On the flipside, the Texans are coming off a 23-14 victory over the Bears that went firmly UNDER the 43.5 points total trading then. Once again, the Texans are looking at a 43.5 point total but, given the quality of the opponent, the OVER appears to be our choice NFL pick.


Free NFL Picks: OVER 43 -101 
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek

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Seattle Seahawks vs. St. Louis Rams
If we were to take week 1 at face value, neither side was impressive on the offensive side of the ball. Seahawks struggled to put up points against a tough Miami side while the Rams finished pointless at Levi stadium. Predictably, the game hangs on the lowest total on the NFL odds board this week with 38 points. It’s important to not overreact and  expect the same outcomes week to week in the NFL when the matchups change and, accordingly, the game plan. For our money, we’re expecting more offense in this game than either side contributed in week 1. At least enough to crack the 38-point total.

Free NFL Picks: OVER 38 -102
Best Line Offered:  at Pinnacle

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Bucs held the Falcons to 374 yards of total offense and 24 points. Similarly, the Cards held the Patriots to 363 yards of total offense and 23 points. Ryan was sacked three times while Garoppolo was sacked twice. Overall, the defenses did their part – albeit the Bucs ended up taking the away win and the Cards the home loss. How this game goes is a tossup but the Cards will be desperate to get back on the winning track at home. The key to that must be shutting down Jameis Winston, whose stellar account at the Georgia Dome probably played a hand in the high total trading on the NFL odds board and has many NFL bettors backing the OVER 50 currently trading. We’re of a mind to fade the public and back the UNDER on our NFL picks. Back-to-back road games for the Bucs is a tall order particularly considering Winston is only in his second year and he doesn’t have a proven track record of consistency nor success, really.


Free NFL Picks: UNDER 50 -110 
Best Line Offered: at BetCris

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. San Diego Chargers
Both the Jaguars and Chargers are winless after week 1 but the latter, arguably, come away worse after the way they botched the lead in Kansas City. The narrative isn’t pleasant and one wonders whether Mike McCoy has the inside track on being the first coach fired this season (he’s sure to get stiff competition for the honors from a few other coaches though). In any event, we digress. This is a must-win game for both teams. Chargers have the standard field goal advantage given to the home team, so we can infer they’re expected to bounce back after the gaffe in week 1. Care to bet on it, though? Yup, not such a tempting NFL pick. To be fair, it’s not an easy thing to recover from losing in such a way, being up 21-3 only to go down 33-27 in overtime. The Jaguars, by contrast, gave good as they got in a narrow 27-23 loss to the Packers. Blake Bortles looks to be a capable quarterback in his third year and the Jaguars defense did a decent job against a very good quarterback.


Free NFL Picks: UNDER 47 -110 
Best Line Offered: at Bet365

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Atlanta Falcons vs. Oakland Raiders
The total on this game is on a steady incline moving from an opening 47 all the way to 49.5. If this trend continues the total may well close in the 50-point range as bettors continue to pound the OVER. Truth be told, the Saints defense collapsing late in the game played a big part in the Raiders come-from-behind win. Up to the fourth quarter, the Raiders offense was struggling something huge. To put it simply, 32 of the combined 69 points scored in the game came in the fourth quarter (22 from the Raiders). If that’s not the Saints defense caving then it’s a damn good impression of it.  As a result, we’re loathe to overreact or buy into this being another shootout in the Coliseum. Granted the Falcons offense can be potent and that’s something to consider. So too can the defensive side of the ball still be shaky but that’s a work in progress that Dan Quinn is paying particular attention to.


Free NFL Picks: UNDER 50 -110 
Best Line Offered: at YouWager

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Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos
Andrew Luck is a force to be reckoned with on the offensive side of the ball and even with a stout Denver defense staring him down he’s good for a few scores for sure. On the flipside, Trevor Siemian is still a bit of an unknown but he showed a lot of composure and grit to lead the Broncos to a come-from-behind win over the Panthers that only just cashed the OVER 40.5 at closing doors. It’s only the first game of his budding career so it remains to be seen how he’ll settle in but if Luck gets fired up he’ll need to counter in kind. Good news, the Colts defense is porous.


Free NFL Picks: OVER 45 -110 
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek

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Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Packers defense was rather good in the opening game of the season that served up the 27-23 win over the Vikings. The Vikings, despite shaky quarterbacking from Shaun Hill, pulled off the win in Tennessee. This is going to be an entirely different matchup for these two teams. A lot of hinges on which quarterback will get the start on Sunday – Shaun Hill again or Sam Bradford. That said, the Packers offense and the grudge factor (Vikings snatched the NFC North title in week 17 the last term) have us leaning towards the OVER on our NFL picks. That and the Sunday Night Football aspect with the nation’s eyes trained on U.S. Bank Stadium. Rodgers might fancy putting on a show.


Free NFL Picks: OVER 43 -110 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Monday, September 19, 2016

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears
The Eagles and Bears wrap up week 2 on Monday Night football. For the sake of ratings, let’s hope this MNF extravaganza is better than the yawn served up at Levi Stadium by the Rams and Niners. From a viewer’s perspective, it was painful. Carson Wentz caught a break with a date with Cleveland in his debut. One could argue he got another with an MNF date with the Bears, a side the public is really low on for the season. Speaking of low, it’s a low total on this game thanks to the Bears mustering up barely anything meaningful in a 23-14 loss to the Texans in week 1. Bears were one of five teams to put up less than 15 points.


Free NFL Picks: UNDER 43 -110
Best Line Offered: at BetCris

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