NFL Picks: Game-by-Game Money Line Predictions for Week 11

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, November 18, 2015 9:24 PM GMT

A crazy week 10 is in the books. What will week 11 of the NFL betting season serve up? Join us as we serve up game-by-game predictions for all 14 matchups to spot on your money line NFL picks.

Week 10 NFL Picks Recap
Week 10 was absolutely bonkers: road teams went a staggering 11-3 SU and underdogs edged favorites 11-3 SU. Against the spread, home teams were 4-10 to away teams and favorites were 2-12 ATS to underdogs! Is it any wonder that most leading NFL panels across ESPN, CBS and more sported losing records with their NFL picks?

Despite the topsy-turvy week, we didn’t do too badly with our SU NFL picks finishing with an 8-5 SU record when all was said and done, including upset predictions: the Redskins upset the Saints; Jaguars upset the Ravens; Bucs upset the Cowboys; Cardinals upset Seahawks; and…drumroll…Texans upset Bengals. Overall, we improve to a solid 84-61-0 across ten weeks of predicting the entire weekly serving of NFL matchups.

 

 

Here we cast our eye on week 11, which is shaping up to be a rather difficult week to handicap at first glance with many key battles on the menu. Let’s get cracking.

 

Titans vs. Jaguars
We’ve gone back and forth on this NFL pick because there’s something to be had for each side of the coin coming through.

Titans have Marcus Mariota. Marcus Mariota made a splash in week 1 over his draft counterpart, the No.1 overall draft pick Jameis Winston, when he led the Titans to a 42-14 win, marking one of the best rookie debuts in the NFL. They also stunned NFL bettors when they beat the Saints in week 9 NFL betting. For the better part of the season, however, the Titans have struggled to strike an audible chord, winning just one of their last 8 games. Admittedly, they’ve been close in some of those. Particularly taking it to the Colts in week 3, but defensive collapses late in the game allowed the Colts to rally back and win. Clearly, this speaks to many issues on both sides of the ball that Mariota simply can’t always cover up even if he’s playing modestly well. Most recently, the Titans were thoroughly outplayed by the Panthers (shocker!) in week 10 NFL betting.

 

Jaguars Keeping It Close: Meanwhile, Jaguars eked out a victory over the Ravens on the road in the same week, masterminding an upset across sportsbook platforms – all of which were high on the Ravens. The Jaguars have played opponents close as evinced by their 5-4 ATS mark. Five of their nine games were decided by five-points or less either way, four of which were decided by three points or less either way. There were three double-digit losses but those involved the undefeated Panthers and Patriots and – the anomaly—Texans. Where the former are concerned, those results were to be expected.

In any event, very little separates the Titans 2-7 SU and the Jaguars 3-6 SU on the bottom line, which makes it a game that both sides will consider winnable. For our money, we’re shading the Jaguars to win straight up but won’t be shocked if the Titans come away with the win on the road. In fact, they’ve only won on the road this season (2-2 SU with a 1.5-point winning margin).

NFL Picks: Jaguars -135 5Dimes

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Cowboys vs. Dolphins
Much of the attention focused on this game surrounds the potential return of Tony Romo and for good reason. The Cowboys are an eyesore since the starter’s injury in week 2 NFL betting, utterly clueless on both sides of the ball and totally unfocused on and off the field. One wonders though whether the damage done is too much even for an elite quarterback as Romo is to overcome. There are a lot of issues with this team that goes beyond the starter role. There’s Dez Bryant and his tantrums, the incessant penalties…and so on. The Cowboys are riding a seven-game losing streak, sat at the bottom of the NFC East with a 2-7 SU mark and in all likelihood destined to surf the couch through the playoffs.  

If there’s a soupcon of comfort it’s that the Dolphins aren’t in a better place, making this a rather winnable game. They are inconsistent from game-to-game and the issues on both sides of the ball are still not resolved. They boast a 4-5 SU mark that is good enough for bottom spot in the AFC East. Granted the Dolphins did beat the Eagles on Sunday, but it was a game they had no business winning. Put this way, they didn’t so much as win it as the Eagles lost it. Of course, they won’t apologise for that and will look to build on the momentum of the come-from-behind road win.

To be fair, this game could go either way. It does seem overly optimistic to assume that a return by Romo is going to equal to immediate upside. On the other hand, it’s disingenuous to discredit Dan Campbell’s Dolphins entirely when they have home advantage and are coming off a win they were happy to take. For our money, though, we’re going to chance the Cowboys finally getting back into the win column behind Romo. (NB: If for any reason Romo doesn’t suit up then we have to change our NFL pick to the Dolphins).

NFL Picks: Cowboys +105 BetOnline

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Broncos vs. Bears
Brock Osweiler is set to get the start for the Broncos in week 11 NFL betting, effectively denying Peyton Manning and John Fox their happy reunion at Soldier Field. Likely putting most NFL bettors off Denver on their NFL picks as well.

It’s hard to gauge what to expect of the backup when he’s set to make his debut on the season. In preseason, he threw for three touchdown passes and one interception over four games combined (Wins over the Seahawks, Texans and Niners and a loss to the Cardinals). But that’s the preseason, separate to the regular season where games truly matter.

What we do know is the other side of the coin is surprisingly rejuvenated behind some solid play from Jay Cutler. The Bears are enjoying a two-game winning streak with wins over the Chargers and Rams, both of which came on the road to see the Bears improve to 4-5 SU on the season and 3-2 SU on the road. A win over the Broncos at home could potentially inject the Bears into the NFC playoff hunt. Heady thoughts indeed. In order to come through for NFL bettors the Bears must transcend a disappointing home record. They are just 1-3 SU at home this season and just 3-9 SU since 2014 with a 7.5-point losing margin. If they can grab the momentum of the last couple of weeks and ride it into the windy city, it’s possible they will deliver.

So this NFL pick is based on the idea that Peyton Manning is going to sit out this game. We’re not so sure we can trust Brock Osweiler so we’re taking the Bears to win straight up here.

NFL Picks: Bears +100 Westgate

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Colts vs. Falcons
Indianapolis fans are confident they can win behind Matt Hasselbeck after the 40-year-old quarterback guided the Colts to back-to-back wins in relief duty for Andrew Luck. The news that Luck is out for 2-to-6 weeks therefore isn’t causing any alarm as it might have had things worked out the differently under Hasselbeck earlier this season. Still, the odds makers aren’t buying it sending the Colts into this game as the considerable underdogs.

It’s a bit of a mistake to take the NFL betting market for granted here. Unless you’re on another planet, the Falcon’s sudden negative trend can’t have passed without notice. After going 5-0 SU to start the season they went to lose three of their last four games, including a loss to Blaine Gabbert and the hapless Niners for Pete’s sake, prompting many to wonder what’s up with Matt Ryan and the Falcons?

If there’s a glimmer of hope for the Falcons here it’s the fact that they are 3-1 SU at home with an 8-point winning margin while the Colts are just 2-2 SU on the road with a 1.8-point losing margin. As well, beating the Titans and Texans on the road is nothing to get all charged up over. Simple fact is the Colts are just not that great either.

To be fair, this should be priced a lot closer on the NFL odds board. The Falcons seem a touch pricey at their current NFL odds, but we’re giving them the slight edge nonetheless to win at the Georgia Dome.

NFL Picks: Falcons -254 sportbet

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Jets vs. Texans
The Texans just masterminded the biggest upset of the season, defeating the 8-0 SU Bengals on the road in Monday Night Football betting. Some might chalk it to the incongruity of Daytime Andy Dalton with Primetime Andy Dalton – the latter boasting an abysmal 4-12 SU record – but we won’t be so churlish. Besides it would take away form what was a concentrated effort by J.J Watt and the Texans’ defense. One and all really stepped it up to deny the Bengals their ninth straight win of the season and dump them out of the ranks of undefeated. The Jets are coming off a disappointing loss to the Bills at home, slipping to 5-4 SU on the season with a 3.7 winning margin. The return of Ryan Fitzpatrick to Houston provides a nice backstory to this game. Houston traded Fitzpatrick last season with a view towards developing Ryan Mallet into the starting role. While the Jets signed him mainly to be a backup. How quickly things change Mallet is no longer in Houston and Fitzpatrick is the starter for the Jets. All down to a series of bizarre events: IK Enemkpali's punch that broke Geno Smith’s gob, Ryan Mallet missing the team flight to Miami and then summarily cut from the roster….and you the rest. If that’s not enough of a twist, this weekend added another. Fitzpatrick had thumb surgery on his non-throwing arm while Hoyer suffered a concussion in MNF which saw T.J Yates get a turn on the field in a backup role.

NFL Picks: Jets -195 BetOnline

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Raiders vs. Lions
Not sure what we’re to make of the Lions winning for the first time in a quarter of a century at Lambeau, but one thing is certain and that is it doesn’t change our opinion of the Lions. They’re still awful. The Raiders, meanwhile, came back down to earth behind a 30-14 loss to the Vikings at home. They are now 4-5 SU on the season, sat behind Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs in the division

For the Lions, it’s going to be difficult to follow up the euphoric win over the Packers with a more humdrum win over the Oakland Raiders, even with home advantage. We’re not sure they can accomplish the feat. For the Raiders, there’s a lot of pressure riding on the outcome of this game. We’re not sure they can deliver under the cosh so.  

The interesting bit is that the Raiders enter this game as the road faves on the NFL odds board, which is as off-putting as it can get in such a middleweight matchup. Raiders are still a modest team and we’re not about to pay above even money on them. In fact it’s the second time they are so favoured on their trips this season, but the first time didn’t go according to plan. They are 0-1 SU as the away fave with a 2-point losing margin.

If there’s a sentiment flowing through this write up: it’s an undercurrent of uncertainty. We like the price tag on the home underdogs to win, but we’re of a mind they might be in for a let-down. We like the Raiders to pull off the upset over a hapless 2-7 SU Lions side, but the price tag is too rich for our money. By empirical deduction, we are left with an NFL pick on the Lions. Ha. Just don’t go betting the farm on it. (Like last week’s win at Lambeau made no sense, this NFL pick doesn’t either).

NFL Picks: Lions +115 Westgate

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Rams vs. Ravens
This game excites us as much as two slugs racing down a field –sooorry Joe Flacco and Ted Gurley, both of you are amazing. In any event, there’s not much going on for the Ravens in this game. Let’s just say it like it is, they are done for the season. Nothing is going their way at all, not even home advantage where they are 1-3 SU on the season with a -1.5-point losing margin. St. Louis Rams are coming off a horrible loss to the Bears at home last week, a 37-13 loss in which Gurley really never got off the mark and Nick Foles gets benched. So the Rams have been a bit of an up-and-down team this season, largely down to inconsistent quarterback play from Nick Foles. Enter: Case Keenum at quarterback.

Not unlike the game between the Lions and Raiders this is a tough one to call. The Ravens can’t seem to buy a win no matter how hard they try, but they are somehow favoured in this game. If the Rams were unpredictable through the first 10 weeks of the season, they’re a total unknown now with Case Keenum at quarterback. Hence, they are the underdogs. Still, the sum of their parts are better than what the hosts are operating with and that has us leaning towards the road upset after all.

NFL Picks: Rams +110 Westgate

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Buccaneers vs. Eagles
Oh Mark Sanchez! All the Eagles needed was a field goal to win the game, but what does pretty face go on and do? Nothing at all, save for throw away the game…. No biggie. Uuuff… Which brings us to the pertinent question here: Sam Bradford or Mark Sanchez? The former suffered a shoulder injury and is questionable at the moment, but that might change before game time. In any event, this is a winnable game for Chip Kelly so long as his players do as they are told and don’t try to be heroes.

NFL Picks: Eagles -220 betway

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Redskins vs. Panthers
Redskins are set to take on the undefeated Panthers on the road, a tall order by all accounts. Nobody is betting on the Redskins to win this game, never mind contemplating the notion they might have a chance to do so. But why not? The Redskins are after an upset over the Saints at home and Kirk Cousins has really lifted this team to a 4-5 SU record on the season, within touching distance of top spot in the NFC East and an ensuing playoff spot. Surprises never cease... They are playing well on both sides of the ball and you can bet they’ll be up for this game. If J.J. Watt and his motley crew can take down the fiery Bengals, why not the Redskins to do the same with the steely Panthers?

Carolina Panthers are one of two undefeated teams left in the NFL ahead of week 11. They are 9-0 SU with an 8.9-point winning margin and 4-0 SU on the road. Going back to last season, they’ve now won 13 straight regular season games. That’s nothing to sniff at. There’s no doubt that the Panthers are the real deal, even if they are punching above their perceived weight class in preseason NFL betting markets. Still, nothing goes on forever. Winning streaks end. Unlikely opponents mastermind upsets….watch this space.

NFL Picks: Redskins +280 5Dimes
 

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Chiefs vs. Chargers
Kansas City Chiefs are riding a three-game winning streak and seem to be back in the chase for a playoff spot. Who’d have thunk that over a month ago when they were in the doldrums? Speaking of doldrums, the Chargers are a right disappointment with a 2-7 SU record, highlighted by a five-game losing streak. Philip Rivers’ individual effort is right up there on the Leaders Board, but his team is nothing to get charged up about at all. He simply can’t do it on his own as evinced by their current form. Chargers could still win at home, but don’t be surprised if the Chiefs heap more misery on Rivers and company.

NFL Picks: Chiefs -150 bet365

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Packers vs. Vikings
We’re keeping this write up very, very simple and without too much fuss or muss. Here it is: No way are the Packers losing four games in a row. NO WAY. Ok, we did say something to that effect about losing three in a row. That didn’t pan out according to our predictions. But, come on, four in a row? NO WAY. Besides, the last two games were very close. A throw to Randall Cobb in one and a successful field goal attempt in the other and the Packers would be ruling the NFC North roost with an 8-1 SU record and not down in second place with a 6-3 SU record. Only the Broncos really bossed around Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Keep things in perspective people. Let’s not panic just yet, but we’ll definitely take the Packers at +100 NFL odds to win outright.

NFL Picks: Packers +100 sporting bet

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49ers vs. Seahawks
Russell Wilson and the Hawks are not happy bunnies right now. Dealt a second straight home loss last week by the Cardinals, their playoff bid hangs in the balance of the next few weeks. Fortunately, their favourite divisional punching bag is coming to town in week 11 NFL betting. Led by the “mighty” Blaine Gabbert to boot. Yikes, this could get ugly for Jim Tomsula and the Niners. The NFL should probably issue a viewer advisory: content not suitable for Niners fans…something of the sort.

NFL Picks: Seahawks -649 betway

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Bengals vs. Cardinals
Dalton has had a little too many distractions in what is going to be a short week ahead of a heavyweight clash between these two playoff hopefuls. Dalton was left miffed on Monday in his presser, not so much for the loss to the Texans as one would imagine but rather J.J. Watt’s comments about reducing the Red Rifle to a Red Ryder BB gun. It was taken out of context. Dalton shouldn’t have taken the ump with Watt so publicly but he did. Because he did we’re thinking he might have done himself quite a disservice, shown a bit of weakness to his opponents. When he was the toast of the town and all were gushing over his red-waves hairdo he was amiable as you please. Now, he’s just doing a good impression of a sore loser.

In any event, after successfully predicting the Texans win over the Bengals in MNF, marking the end of week 10 NFL betting, we’re taking it a step further. Predicting a second-straight loss by the Bengals in Arizona. Yup, that’s right. It’s a primetime game after all. You know what they say about Dandy Andy in primetime football. That and Carson Palmer and the Cardinals just underscored their credentials with a win over the Seahawks on the road.

NFL Picks: Cardinals -160

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Bills vs. Patriots
Bless Rex Ryan. He was so fired (no pun intended) up when his Bills beat his former Jets. He bounced about on the side lines, threw fist punches in the air, uttered a few choice expletives in celebration and hugged just about every guy on his team. To watch him was to be left in no doubt about how much the win meant to him. We’re not going to take it away from him obviously. Suffice it to say: hope he savoured it well because Monday Night Football is sure to serve up a whole different ball game, not to mention outcome.

NFL Picks: Patriots -300 betway

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