NFL Picks: Game-by-Game ML Predictions for All Week 6

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, October 13, 2015 10:11 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2015 10:11 PM UTC

Looking at the entire NFL betting card we serve up winners and losers for each and every game in week 6. Find out what predictions we’re making and where the value NFL picks are to be had.


***NFL Week 6 ATS Picks***
***NFL Week 6 Total Picks***
***NFL Week 6 Player Props***
***NFL Week 6 Team Props***

Week 5 Recap SU Picks
We had a solid week for our straight up predictions, going 9-5 on our NFL picks. It was a slow start for our predictions, splitting the early games almost evenly. However, we recovered nicely with all our afternoon picks as well Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football picks coming through.

Falcons vs. Saints
The Falcons are 5-0 SU going into week 6, so it comes as no surprise that they are the significant road favourites to win straight up against a Saints side that strikes an underwhelming pose in the league with a paltry 1-4 SU record, including a 1-1 SU record at home and a 0-3 SU record on the road. That said a so-so Redskins side had the Falcons on the ropes in week 5 NFL betting. It took a pick-6 in overtime for the Falcons to win the game 25-19. That latest account is sure to have many NFL bettors contemplating the merit of the Falcons’ 5-0 SU record: are they as good as their record suggests they are or just as good as the strength of their schedule, which is the softest in the league this season. For the purpose of this next matchup, it shouldn’t really deter NFL bettors from backing the Falcons. The Saints are simply not good. Home advantage may keep them in this game for a stretch, plus the divisional aspect will be a catalyst of sorts. In the end, you can’t bet against the Falcons here when the Saints barely have a pulse this season.

NFL Picks: Falcons -170 at BetOnline

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Cardinals vs. Steelers
The Arizona Cardinals bounced back last weekend with a resounding 42-17 win over the Lions. You may be thinking: who hasn’t beaten up on the Lions? But that would be churlish. Aside from the hiccup against the Rams in week 4, the Cardinals have been nigh flawless. There’s no arguing with the stats that reveal the Cardinals have outgunned their opponents 190-90 through five games for the largest scoring differential in the league of plus 100. Steelers won a nail-bitter on Monday Night against the San Diego Chargers by scoring a last-gasp touchdown with mere seconds on the clock. In so doing, they showed they are still a formidable team and can win without Big Ben. At face value, home field advantage might give the Steelers an edge; Vick certainly has weapons he can use against the Cardinals. However, Carson Palmer is the more reliable quarterback of the pair. Coming down to a choice between Palmer and Vick, we’re trusting our money with the former.

NFL Picks: Cardinals -165 at 5Dimes

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Bears vs. Lions
The winless Detroit Lions are installed as the firm favourites both SU and ATS when they host the Bears in week 6 NFL betting. That the Bears are riding a two-game winning streak behind wins over the Raiders and Chiefs (away) doesn’t seem to factor according to odds makers. Clearly, they’re not sold on the John Fox-inspired Bears. Or is it more that the idea of the Lions going 0-6 SU is anathema to odds makers and NFL bettors alike? (It wasn’t a long time ago that the Lions went 0-16 on the season, you know. Just saying). This may well be the game to serve up the first win for the beleaguered Lions considering the Bears aren’t convincing odds makers. For our money, until we see some semblance of life in the Detroit camp we’re going to chance the Bears on our NFL picks. It’s a tossup though so don’t go betting the farm on this game.

NFL Picks: Bears +135 

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Bengals vs. Bills
Can the Bengals really go 6-0 SU this season? On paper, it looks like a real possibility. They are 3-0 at home and 2-0 SU on the road, solid on both sides of the ball and coming off four straight wins over teams that finished above .500 last season (Chargers, Ravens, Chiefs and Seahawks) – two of which went into the playoffs. Most recently, they beat Seattle at home – only the 2013 Super Bowl champions and last year’s runners up.

For a long time Andy Dalton and the Bengals carried the stigma of not being able to rise to the better teams in the NFL. The win over the Seahawks goes some way towards appeasing those naysayers. Few and far in between upsets aren’t the making of a great team however. If the Bengals are to be great they have to consistently rise to the better teams, not to mention take care of business against teams they should be regularly beating.

Such as the Buffalo Bills in week 6, who are good this season behind a 3-2 SU mark but not great. By all accounts, this is a game that is cornered in Cincinnati’s camp on the road and the wide expectations is that they should win. Call us bonkers, if you will, but this could be the game to shake the Bengals out of the undefeated ranks. The Bengals are enjoying a pleasant high this week following their come-from-behind win over the Seahawks, in which they erased a 17-point deficit to snatch the improbable 27-24 win. They could end up making the mistake many teams make: underestimate their opponents in week 6. It’s a long shot, but we’re banking on the upset here nevertheless.

NFL Picks: Bills +135 

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Broncos vs. Browns
The Denver Broncos are 5-0 SU, looking to go 6-0 SU at the expense of the Browns, who are coming off an upset over the Baltimore Ravens. As a result of that upset do we love up the Browns in week 6 NFL betting or stick to the tried, tested and true Broncos? Back-to-back upsets are a bit of a stretch in our opinion for the Browns, no matter how well they played last week. Keep in mind, it was a divisional rivalry. Broncos own the Browns 22-5 all time. Straight up pick has to be the Broncos.

NFL Picks: Broncos -195 at The Greek

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Texans vs. Jaguars
The divisional clash between the Texans and Jaguars is a right tossup on our NFL picks. Both are 1-4 SU, looking to get back into the win column. Texans are riding a two-game losing streak while the Jaguars are riding a three-game losing streak. If there’s one thing that has us leaning towards the Texans, it’s that Bill O’Brian has finally named Brian Hoyer his starter. Frankly, a long-overdue decision. Should have happened last week when they took on the Colts. In any event, let’s not cry over spilt beer. Hoyer should get the job done against Blake Bortles and the Jaguars, who are coming off a 38-31 loss to Jameis Winston and the Bucs. If not, then colour the world shocked.

NFL Picks: Texans -128 at Bovada

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Chiefs vs. Vikings
Chiefs are desperate to win but it’s hard to see how they might do that in week 6 NFL betting when they are riding a four-game losing streak, which includes the ignominy of losing to the Bears. The manner of which was the most concerning: blowing a two-score lead over the Bears. What’s more, they are having to come to terms with the loss of Jamaal Charles for the season. Then there’s Alex Smith’s waning confidence on the field and the Chiefs et al looking more and more depressed each week. Overall, the Chiefs are in very real danger of free-falling through the remaining weeks. Vikings, by contrast, are coming off a bye. They are well-rested and raring to go with a perfect 2-0 SU record on the line at home. Based on the current form and seasons of each team, the Vikings appear to be the smart NFL pick.

NFL Picks: Vikings -200 

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Dolphins vs. Titans
Dan Campbell has talked up his coaching intentions for the Miami Dolphins ad nauseam. Now it’s time to put up or shut up, so to speak. On paper, this looks like a winnable match for either team. If we were looking at this matchup during the preseason, we’d have expected the Titans to enter as the underdogs because, typically, they are the underdogs – when have they been taken seriously over seasons past? –, and the Dolphins were so hyped up that they were expected to be AFC East contenders. Tale told, it’s the opposite on the NFL odds board with the Dolphins arriving as the distinct underdogs to the intriguing Titans under No.2 draft pick Marcus Mariota. There’s a lot to like about the Titans. In their last two games, they led the Colts and Bills only for late game collapses turning the oh-so-close W into an L instead. Lack of experience has everything to do with it but Mariota is showing promise from game to game. It’s only a matter of time.

If we were to sum up the Dolphins right now, upheaval in coaching staff notwithstanding, the in-fighting, finger-pointing and media leaks causing general unrest and mistrust in the locker room amongst the players is a cause for concern. The attitude isn’t right in Miami and we’re not so sure a pep talk is enough to turn things around. Enough said.

NFL Picks: Titans -135 at Bet365

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Redskins vs. Jets
Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets are coming off a bye week, following a win in London over the Miami Dolphins. Overall, they are 3-1 SU and ATS on the season with a 10-point winning margin. The Redskins are 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS with a 1.4-point losing margin on average. Where the Redskins have been successful is on the defense, keeping games close. However, Kirk Cousins has been patchy at best and his costly interception in OT cost the Redskins the game in Atlanta. Hard thing to shake off, you think. Then there is the fact that the Jets defense tops the league in total defense, is second against the pass and eighth against the rush, with only four games played no less. It’s enough to make Cousins’ arm twitchy, if not force him to misfire with more frequency than in previous games.

NFL Picks: Jets -250 at Pinnacle

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Panthers vs. Seahawks
Everybody is all over the Seahawks in this repeat of the NFC Divisional showdown mainly because they are an impressive 28-2 SU at home since 2012. We can’t argue with those stats – they are the best home team in the NFL that side of the decade. However, they are 2-3 SU this season and coming off a terrible loss to the Bengals, blowing a 17-point lead. It’s the sort of form that has us considering an upset here for our NFL picks.

Granted most NFL betting analysts and experts aren’t pushing the panic button, sugar coating Seattle’s start to the season any which way they can. However, even they must share in the realism that something just isn’t right with the Seahawks. One thing that’s been rather conspicuous is the growing egos amongst the team’s stars – from increasing demands for bigger contracts from player to player, to the lure of the celebrity limelight and advertisement deals. All that must be taking a toll on team ethos.

They are still a well-coached bunch but winning clearly isn’t coming as easily as it used to in season’s past. Seattle are undefeated at home behind wins over the Bears (without Jay Cutler) and the winless Lions. Panthers are the first team to come to town with a better record than Seattle have – 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS with a 9.2-point winning margin. That makes them the first test for the Seahawks this season at CenturyLink. In short: Seattle should win this game by their lofty standards of season’s past, but Panthers could win this game. We’re leaning towards the Panthers, ever so slightly but feeling no joy.

NFL Picks: Panthers +290 

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Ravens vs. Niners
It’s somewhat surprising that this matchup features the reprisal of the 2012 Super Bowl showdown between the Ravens and Niners. Both are 1-4 SU this season and looking wholly off colour and off form. The Ravens lost to the Browns (yup, not a typo) last week while the Niners fell to the Giants late in the game. Somebody is going to win this game. Well, somebody has to even if both teams have done their best to lose each and every week and frustrate NFL backers. For our money, we’re giving it to the hosts ever so reluctantly. Ravens lost to the Browns after all!!!

NFL Picks: Niners +125

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Chargers vs. Packers
This is a no-brainer for your straight up picks: Packers 100% at home are the ONLY NFL pick, until proven otherwise. Need more be said?  

NFL Picks:  Packers -500  at Heritage

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Patriots vs. Colts
Inflated balls are sure to fly at Lucas Stadium with Tom Brady and the Patriots responsible for what could very well be a merciless barrage over the Colts. Any self-respecting NFL fan knows the Colts started the whole tell-tale that became the infamous Deflate-gate scandal. Yikes, this could get ugly with or without Andrew Luck in the line-up.

NFL Picks:  Patriots -370 

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Giants vs. Eagles
The Giants and Eagles should serve up a right showdown on MNF if their recent turn in fortunes is to be taken seriously. The Giants are 3-2 SU and sat atop the NFC East, while the Eagles are back in the win column with a win 39-17 win over the Saints that saw their offense light up finally. Eagles are just 2-3 SU, but a win over the Eagles could see them move to the top of the table and level with the Giants. There’s a lot to play for in this game, making it one of the toughest to handicap this week. It could go either way really on your NFL picks, but we like the home team in this one to win straight up, thereby thickening the plot in the NFC East race.

NFL Picks: Eagles -200 at WagerWeb

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