NFL Picks: Game-by-Game ML Predictions for All Week 5

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, October 7, 2015 5:15 PM GMT

Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2015 5:15 PM GMT

Join us as we weigh in on week 5 NFL betting matchups and serve up our choice NFL picks for each and every game. Who are the winners and losers in week 5 according to us?

NFL Week 4 Betting Recap
It was a so-so week for our NFL money line picks in week 4 as we went 7-8-0 when all was said and done. Overall, through four weeks of predicting winners and losers we have 34-29-0 record, plus we are in the green (See Table 1) across the board. 

 

Colts vs. Texans
Two days to this AFC South divisional clash kicking off on Thursday and the game remains off the board. Andrew Luck’s status is 50-50 for the game and not until official word is received about his fitness to start the game will the NFL odds be released. Still, we’re going ahead with our SU NFL pick on this game. Here goes...

It’s mayhem. The crush of people jumping off the Texans’ bandwagon hits a record high following the 48-21 evisceration in Atlanta. Had it not been for the late game heroics of Brian Hoyer, the Texans would have suffered the indignity of a bagel. Hoyer entered the game after Ryan Mallet got the hook but not before the Falcons had built up a cushy 42-0 lead. The Texans were pitiful. They were embarrassed. They had their butts whooped. Typically, that’s something coaches use as a catalyst for a turnaround performance. In this case, we’re not so sure. Guess who the Texans are starting on Thursday? Drum roll….wait for it…Ryan Mallet, of course! It’s a short week and O’Brien doesn’t want to rock the boat, apparently. Why ruin a winning formula, obviously. Umm O'Brien?  What winning formula?

On the flipside, we’re not so sure the Colts are much better off either. If you think they've turned things around with a 2-2 SU record behind back-to-back wins over the ‘mighty’ Titans and Jaguars you are missing the plot. The offense is wholly off form and color and Andrew Luck has the worst  stats of any quarterback this season -- worse than rookie Jameis Winston and Colin Kaepernick. That both those teams had them on the ropes and could easily have heaped more misery on Chuck Pagano and his side seems to be conveniently overlooked. Titans were up on the Colts and the Jaguars missed a field goal to win the game. We put it to you that even if Andrew Luck does start this game, the Colts are in no way a sure NFL pick to win outright. So we’re going with the home Texans in this game (shocker!) to bounce back with the caveat being that if Mallet starts to stink up the field again, they do have a reliable backup in Hoyer to turn to.

NFL Picks: Texans +105

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Bills vs. Titans
The Bills crashed back down to earth in week 4 NFL betting, behind a 24-10 loss to the NY Giants all while installed as the home faves. The pressure of being a home fave might have gotten to them, but, more likely than not, the absence of LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins made the biggest impact. Titans are coming off a bye week, looking for redemption after allowing the lead over the Colts to slip through their fingers in a 35-33 loss. No sportsbooks is putting its stock behind the Titans at home, despite the superb performance of Marcus Mariota in his rookie season. Unanimously, they are sending the Bills into this game as the decisive road faves instead. As mentioned earlier, the Bills flopped as home faves last week. Without McCoy in week 5, can they be trusted to be road faves?

NFL Picks: Titans +120 at BetOnline

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Bears vs. Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a rough three-week stretch that sees them slip to a 1-3 SU record after getting the season off to a bright start over the Texans. Avid NFL betting enthusiasts can pinpoint exactly when it all went south for the Chiefs – the moment Jamaal Charles fumbled the ball to give the Broncos the easy last-gasp score and defining 31-24 win. In that moment, the Chiefs et al deflated before our eyes. Week 3 offered the Chiefs an opportunity to bounce back against the Bengals, but their offense fizzled something awful, reduced to seven field goals in the 36-21 loss. If the Chiefs aren’t cranky yet, they better be for week 5. They’re faced with a beatable opponent in the Bears – who struggled mightily over the Raiders in a narrow 16-13 win last week that marked their first win of the season – and they can’t leave this W on the table. Leaving it on the table for the Broncos to pick up can be explained away. To do so, for the ferocious Care Bears from Chicago can’t possibly be explained away. It’s unthinkable.

NFL Picks: Chiefs -440 

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Browns vs. Ravens
The Ravens got lucky in week 4 and clinched their first win of the season. Easily they could have been 0-4 SU going into week 5, which would have left most Ravens fans inconsolable. There might even have been a call for a day of mourning in the wake of what would have surely been rendered as the untimely demise of their highly fancied 2015-2016 NFL season, an unexpected bereavement scrutinised methodically and meticulously on national television above all. Heck, John Harbaugh might have been headed to the dole queue with Joe Philbin this week, if not seeking out his brother at the cafeteria at MU for lunch money… but we digress.  

As it is, they are 1-3 SU on the season with a 2.8-point losing margin on average, but faced with the prospect of a familiar foe in week 5 NFL betting, the Cleveland Browns. A divisional rival Baltimore owns 13-1 SU in the last 14 games. Predictably, the Ravens are firm faves over the Browns, who are coming off a steady account in San Diego, but a loss nonetheless. Odds makers seem to imply the Ravens aren’t as bad as their record suggest they are and send them into this game above the 200-price-point in money line markets. NFL bettors appear willing to cede to that notion with more than 60% of the money coming down the wire going towards a Baltimore SU win. We’re not saying all is right with the Ravens, but we agree this is a matchup they should win.

NFL Picks: Ravens -275 at Heritage

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Jaguars vs. Buccaneers
Just like the Titans the week prior, the Jaguars almost got a win at the expense of the Colts. Unlike Marcus Mariota who had to go toe-to-toe with Andrew Luck, Blake Bortles went toe-to-toe with Hasslebeck instead but still came out the loser. It was a topsy-turvy game and the Jaguars had plenty opportunities to clinch the W. The Bucs are coming off a sobering 37-23 loss to the Panthers in which Jameis Winston visibly struggled. Overall, this game is a tossup for our NFL picks. It really could go either way with neither team playing consistent football right now. Bucs are riding a ten-game losing streak at home in the regular season going back to 2014. That’s a stat worth holding onto when making this NFL pick, don’t you think?

NFL Picks: Jaguars +135 

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Saints vs. Eagles
The clash of 1-3 SU teams figures to be a tough one to call for most NFL bettors because of momentum shifts. The Saints are coming off an overtime win over the Tony-Romo-less Cowboys, which marks their first win of the season. The Eagles, after beating the Jets in week 3, regressed behind a last-gasp Redskins win in week 4. Of course, there’s another way to look at it. The Eagles easily could have been 3-1 SU going into week 5 had they not botched a field goal attempt in week 1’s 26-24 loss to the Falcons and had they not allowed Kirk Cousins to find the end zone with mere seconds left on the clock last week. The difference is in a few calls and plays not made. Whereas the Saints have looked frankly out of sorts and abysmal through four weeks of football and we’re not going to hang our hats on Sunday Night’s win over the Cowboys.

NFL Picks: Eagles -210 at 5Dimes

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Seahawks vs. Bengals
The Bengals look to protect their undefeated record on the season at the expense of the Seahawks, and odds makers have gone ahead and made them the favourites on the NFL odds board at home. That’s quite telling. Cincy’s 4-0 SU record is being taken seriously while the Seahawks are just 2-2 SU on the season with wins over the hapless Bears and winless Lions. Let’s not forget, the MNF win was rather dubious at best with a no-call doing the Lions an injustice. Another thing to consider where the Seahawks are concerned, over and above their questionable start to the season, is they are a different team on the road.

NFL Picks: Bengals -145 

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Rams vs. Packers
The Rams are now responsible for two of the biggest upsets this season – a win over Seattle (week 1) and a win over Cardinals (week 4). Will the real Rams please stand up? How does the same time fail to launch against the Redskins (week 2) and Steelers (week3)? Does it matter anyway? They are only going to take on one of the toughest home teams in the league, the Green Bay Packers who are 11-0 SU in their last eleven home games.

NFL Picks: Packers -400 at Bet365

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Redskins vs. Falcons
The Redskins are coming off a shock win over the Eagles in week 5 NFL betting, scoring a last-gasp touchdown to snatch the 23-20 win. It was a morale boosting performance for the Redskins as they improve to 2-2 SU on the season. Not to mention, it might send them into week 5’s clash with the Falcons on a wave of optimism. That said the Falcons are simply soaring right now behind a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS mark, which includes an 11-point winning margin on average. It doesn’t look like they’re planning on coming back down to earth anytime soon either. It would take a masterclass performance by the Redskins to upend the Falcons at home, don’t you think?

NFL Picks: Falcons -325 

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Cardinals vs. Lions
The Cardinals (3-1 SU) were shocked by the Rams in week 4’s 24-20 loss at home. The Lions (0-4 SU) must be feeling aggrieved by their no-call loss to the Seahawks in MNF that could have seen them finally crack the win column with the improbable road win. Given these contrasting realities this is going to be a tough one to call. Both come into this game looking for redemption and vindication after the recent spate of setbacks. Cardinals have the confidence behind a 3-1 SU mark though, while the Lions can only rely on a useless sense of injustice. One does feel bad for the Lions, really. They are in real danger of slipping to an 0-5 SU start on the season and in no shape or form to snap the negative trend, which could in turn start a whole new round of sacking in the NFL. But this isn’t the time to be sentimental. Arizona to bounce back has to be the smart NFL pick, right?

NFL Picks: Cardinals -140 at TheGreek

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Broncos vs. Raiders
Ok, the Raiders are 2-2 SU but it’s not exactly time for bubbly is it? Last week, they looked rather dreadful in the windy city and failed to put away the hapless Chicago Bears in a 22-20 loss. Their wins this season have come against struggling Ravens and the not-so great Browns. How the Broncos are only trading as the -200-plus-some-change road faves is a mystery. Heck, Patriots are whopping -400-road faves in Dallas, a much better team than the Raiders are let’s face it.  But it’s not for us to comment on it. Suffice it to say, the Broncos are dialled into this divisional matchup. Last season, they beat the Raiders 47-14 at Mile High and 41-17 in Oakland. That’s a 28.5-point winning margin (33 +24/2) over just the last two games. The Broncos are 4-0 SU this season and 3-1 ATS with a 7-point winning margin on average.

NFL Picks: Broncos -210 

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Patriots vs. Cowboys
No Tony Romo? No chance! Patriots all the way on your NFL picks, surely. Bill Belichick and Brady have had a week off to prepare for this game and they’re sure to be fired up to go 4-0 SU on the season when they take on the Cowboys that seem to be crumbling under the weight of injuries.

NFL Picks: Patriots -450 at Bovada

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Niners vs. Giants
Giants are 2-2 SU going into week 5 after turning the corner in week 3 with a win over the Redskins in Thursday Night Football. Two weeks and no wins, the media were writing Eli’s and Tom Coughlin’s obituary. Two weeks later and two wins to improve to 2-2 SU, the naysayers are somewhat appeased. Can they keep it rolling at the expense of the Niners, heap even more misery on Jim Tomsula and Colin Kaepernick? 

It’s no secret the Niners are fast losing the plot. They’ve lost three straight games to slip to 1-3 SU, but the manner in which they’ve lost those is mighty concerning. By all accounts, it was the worst football offering seen since the teeth-gnashing days of Tim Tebow. How the Niners bounce back in week 5 could be deciding for their season, not to mention the quarterback role. If Kaepernick deposits another dodgy account, he’ll be holding a clipboard on the side lines faster than you can say Blaine Gabbert is our starter. Teams that lose big tend to bounce back the following week, but the Niners have done nothing to give us any confidence that they might.

NFL Picks: Giants -290 at Pinnacle

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Steelers vs. Chargers
Steelers were robbed of the win in week 4 NFL betting because of questionable play calling and several missed field goal attempts. (Wasn’t it a bad week for kickers in general?). As a result, the Steelers slip to 2-2 SU (1-1 home and away) on the season, with a 3-0-1 ATS mark and a 5.2-point winning margin. On the bright side, they showed they could still play good football without Big Ben, which could save their season.

The Chargers had all to do to keep the Browns at bay on Sunday in San Diego, which doesn’t instil us with much confidence in their chances against the Steelers. Nevertheless, they eked out the victory to improve to 2-2 SU and enter this MNF extravaganza as the firm home faves.

The Steelers are without Big Ben while the Chargers are with Philip Rivers – hard to say, which one is more unfortunate. Chargers should win at home, but Steelers could win on the road.

NFL Picks: Steelers +155 at YouWager

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