NFL Picks: Game-by-Game ML Predictions for All Week 4 Games

Nikki Adams

Thursday, October 1, 2015 10:59 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 1, 2015 10:59 PM GMT

Week 4 of the NFL is almost upon us. We look at the complete NFL betting slate and serve up our choice NFL picks for winners and losers in straight up betting.

NFL Week 3 Recap
It was a strong week with 12 NFL picks going our way and just four falling through in straight up betting. Overall, we improve to 27-21-0 for our NFL picks through the first through weeks and stay in the green. Let’s continue this good form with our week 4 NFL picks, shall we.

Week 4 ATS Picks

Week 4 Total Picks

Week 4 Betting Trends

Week 4 Team Props

Week 4 Player Props

Ravens vs. Steelers
The pressure is going to be firmly on Michael Vick’s shoulders to steer the Pittsburgh Steelers to victory at Heinz Field on Thursday. As far as backups go, he’s not exactly the sort that instils huge confidence. In a word: turnover-guru. But the Steelers on the whole strike a more convincing pose on paper than the Ravens do, who are 0-3 SU and in dire straits right now. If Vick can play within himself, the Steelers could come up trumps as the home underdogs. No Big Ben doesn’t necessarily mean No Win – at least as far as this AFC North clash is concerned.

NFL Pick: Steelers +140

 

Jets vs. Dolphins
The London clash between the Jets and Dolphins is cornered in New York’s camp, but not so firmly to make them the likely NFL pick. Jets are 2-1 SU on the season and looking to bounce back from a loss to the Eagles in week 3 NFL betting. They are favored around -130 NFL odds at most sportsbooks. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are looking to snap a two-game losing streak and trading as the nominal “home” underdogs at +105 NFL odds or thereabouts. The Jets have been the surprise package through the first couple of weeks while the Dolphins have disappointed NFL bettors. Dolphins could win, but the Jets should win.

NFL Picks: Jets -125 

 

Panthers vs. Buccaneers
The Panthers are riding a three-game winning streak to start the season, swelling in confidence ahead of their NFC South clash with the developing Buccaneers (1-2 SU). Cam Newton and the Panthers should have a field day in Tampa and come through as the heavy -170 favorites to win outright.

NFL Picks: Panthers -170 at Bet365

 

Texans vs. Falcons
The Falcons are 3-0 SU going into week 4 NFL betting with 5.7-point margin of victory on average. Dan Quinn’s Falcons have surprised many NFL bettors with the improvements they’ve shown on both sides of the ball. The Texans snapped the negative trend in week 3 NFL betting with a 19-9 win over the Buccaneers. On the defensive side of the ball, they put in a concentrated effort. The quarterback situation though is still far from convincing and they are struggling to put up points. IF they can’t click on the offensive-side, they won’t have a chance of winning in Atlanta.

NFL Picks: Falcons -270 at 5Dimes

 

Jaguars vs. Colts
The Colts dominate the rivalry with the Jaguars in recent memory but that prominence is in danger right now. Given their unconvincing form this season, which stands at 1-2 SU going into week 4, a Colts win in this game isn’t as certain as the NFL odds would suggest. Colts did clinch the W in week 3 finally, but they had to come from behind to do it. The Titans never let up on the pressure and had them on the ropes for most of the game. That has to give the Jaguars some hope of keeping this game close. And if they can do so, it could go either way on your NFL picks.

The Jaguars are coming off a forgettable account with the Patriots –albeit one that can be considered a one-off, backed by the way Patriots are going about their title defense campaign. Many are talking about them going a perfect 16-0 SU this season.

The NFL betting outlook on this game serves up the Colts as runaway favorites upwards of -400 NFL odds. The way they are playing they certainly aren’t worth such a large stake to win just $100. The Jaguars are coming off an embarrassing 51-17 loss that has many going off them and odds makers matching them on whopping +375 NFL odds or higher. However, if it comes down to betting on this game, we’d rather risk the $100 on the Jaguars on the slim shot they might mastermind the upset rather than risk almost $500 to win just $100, which is a 20% rate of return on your investment.

NFL Picks: Jaguars +375 

 

Chiefs vs. Bengals             
The Bengals look to be one of the best teams in the league by the stats, but that’s nothing new where they are concerned. Andy Dalton invariably self-combusts at some point in the season, dragging the Bengals down with him. This is the kind of game that could do it. Chiefs might be just 1-2 SU, but they easily could have been 2-1 SU had they not fritted away the lead over the Broncos in week 2 NFL betting. Last weekend, they gave as good as they got in Green Bay, but inevitably lost to the great Aaron Rodgers and the nigh-unbeatable Packers at home.

NFL Picks: Chiefs +170 at Bet365

 

Giants vs. Bills
The Bills strike an attractive pose as the home favorites at -220 NFL odds to beat the struggling NY Giants. A win over the Redskins in week 3 NFL betting isn’t enough to convince us the Giants are on the mend. Bills are 2-1 SU with a 9-point winning margin on average and are coming off a whopping 41-17 win over the Dolphins on the road.

NFL Picks: Bills -220 

 

Raiders vs. Bears
The Raiders are enjoying a two-game winning streak behind wins over the Ravens and Browns. In week 4, they take on a Chicago Bears side that looks to be there for the taking. Bears are 0-3 SU and ATS and their season looks to be down in the dumps, with no chance of resurrection. Bears have been outscored 105-46 in the first three games and with Jimmy Clausen likely leading them into the weekend, the Raiders have a chance to win a third straight game. Colour the world shocked.

NFL Picks: Raiders -155 at 5Dimes

 

Eagles vs. Redskins
The Redskins became the Redskins of old in a 32-21 loss to the NY Giants in week 3 NFL betting. Is it any wonder the Eagles, therefore, are back in favor, a NFL betting outlook underscored by their 24-17 win on the road against a semi-decent NY Jets side? This is a winnable game for Chip Kelly and the Eagles, so long as Sam Bradford and the Eagles continue to show improvement.

NFL Picks: Eagles -170 at Bet365

 

Browns vs. Chargers
The Chargers are set to put behind them a disappointing road account highlighted by back-to-back losses in Cincinnati and Minnesota. They are typically a better team at home, one that can be counted on to beat up on lesser teams. The Cleveland Browns leave much to be desired after a 27-20 loss to the Raiders in week 3 NFL betting.

NFL Picks: Chargers -340 at Bet365

 

Packers vs. 49ers
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are on fire right now and take a 3-0 SU record, which boasts a 9-point winning margin on average, to San Francisco. The Niners failed to launch in week 3’s 47-7 loss to the Cardinals, one of the worst accounts by any team in the NFL. This looks to be a no-brainer on your NFL picks, right?

NFL Picks: Packers -370 at 5Dimes

 

Vikings vs. Broncos
The Denver Broncos are one of the best teams on home turf in the league with Peyton Manning at quarterback. Since 2012, they are a league-leading 43-13-0 on the season with a 9.3-point winning margin and 24-4-0 at home with a 13.5-point winning margin. Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings are 2-1 SU this season, but they’ll have to play lights out to hand the Broncos a loss at Mile High.

NFL Picks: Broncos -290 at 5Dimes

 

Rams vs. Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals are one of the hottest teams this season averaging over 40-points per game and outscoring opponents 126-49 through three wins. If the Cardinals continue on this rich vein of form, they’ll be one of the teams to spot in the playoffs for sure. As it is, the Rams have good reason to be concerned.

NFL Picks: Cardinals -300 at Bet365

 

Cowboys vs. Saints
This matchup is one of the tossups in week 4 NFL betting. The Saints are 0-3 SU and ATS this season and boast an 8-point losing margin. At home, they were defeated by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in week 2 NFL betting. Then there is concern about Drew Brees and his fitness (shoulder injury). The Cowboys similarly have been hit by the injury bug losing Tony Romo and Dez Bryant for the foreseeable. All and sundry are backing the Saints heavily on their NFL picks, we’re of a mind to fade the public and shade the Cowboys.

NFL Picks: Cowboys +150 Bet365

 

Lions vs. Seahawks
The winless Lions are in danger of slipping to 0-4 SU on the season in week 4 NFL betting. Taking on the Seattle Seahawks is a tough prospect on any given Sunday (or Thursday/Monday). Doing it while in the midst of a confidence crisis, on MNF and on the road as well is the worst possible scenario. How the Lions escape CenturyLink Field with any self-respect is going to be an accomplishment.

NFL Picks: Seattle -526 at Bet365

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