NFL Picks: Game-by-Game ATS Predictions for All Week 9 Games

Nikki Adams

Thursday, November 5, 2015 12:44 PM GMT

Thursday, Nov. 5, 2015 12:44 PM GMT

With week 9 matchups trading across sports betting platforms in earnest, we weigh in on the current spreads available and serve up our choice NFL picks for your betting thrills.

Week 8 NFL Picks ATS Recap
It was a rather good week overall with all our NFL picks, from money line, ATS and totals. We we’re in the green with each and every one. Against the spread we went 7-7-0, breaking even to improve to 60-57-2 on the season. (See Table 1)

Before us we have another standout week, crammed to the brim with 13 matchups to spot on our weekly game-by-game NFL picks. So here goes.

 

Browns vs. Bengals
The Browns and Bengals collide in a highly-anticipated Thursday Night Football clash that has NFL bettors wondering if the Bengals can keep their record-breaking start on the season going. Also on the line is a 6-0-1 ATS record on the season by the Bengals, which is a league-best ahead of week 9 and includes a 9.4-point winning margin. It’s no secret that we’ve not been high on the Bengals, but to our chagrin they’ve come through on their NFL odds from week-to-week. Nevertheless, the win over the Steelers on Sunday left something to be desired even if it was a winning effort by the Bengals. We don’t doubt they’ll win this game, especially if Johnny Manziel does start – colour the world shocked if the outcome is anything but a Bengals win. At the double-digit spread though that this game is currently trading on, we’re of a mind to back the Browns to snap the Bengals positive run of form against the spread finally.

NFL Picks: Browns +11 at Pinnacle

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Packers vs. Panthers
Green Bay Packers enter this game as the road favorites, marking the second straight week they do so. Last week, they failed to come through as the 3-point road chalk (or thereabouts depending on your sportsbook of choice) when they descended on the Denver Broncos. But we’re talking about Peyton Manning, the Broncos and Mile High. In the Panthers, it’s a second undefeated side they take in as many weeks, one that is 5-2 ATS on the season with a 7.9-point winning margin. The teams they’ve edged though aren’t in the same league as Aaron Rodgers, save for the Seattle Seahawks, which they faced on the road and beat 27-23. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is 14-0 SU in his last 14 games coming off a loss, and since 2011 the Packers are 11-5-1 ATS with a 9.6-point winning margin after a loss.

NFL Picks: Packers -2.5 

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Jaguars vs. Jets
Despite a thumb injury to his non-throwing arm, Ryan Fitzpatrick is set to start for the Jets against the Jaguars, which must be a relief to Jets fans after witnessing the debacle behind Geno Smith in Oakland last weekend. That said, the Jets are massive 7.5-point faves against the spread, which might be too many points considering Fitzpatrick is less than 100% fit for this game. Jaguars have been turning it on of late and giving opponents a run for their money. They are 3-4 ATS on the season with an 8.6-point losing margin, but three of their last four games we’re decided by six points or less. 

NFL Picks: Jaguars +7.5 (-105) at BetOnline

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Dolphins vs. Bills
After a brief two-game renaissance, the Dolphins slipped to defeat rather badly. All it took was a date with divisional rivals New England Patriots to send them crashing back down to earth with a 36-7 thud. Can the Dolphins find their mojo again? The Bills only steamrolled them 41-14 in week 3 of the season at home. The Bills are 3-4 ATS on the season and just 1-3 ATS at home, the latter of which includes a 5.5-point margin of defeat. They are buoyed by the news that Tyrod Tayloe is 100% and ready to start on Sunday when the Dolphins descend on Buffalo and keen to get their season back on track. It’s a must-win game for both teams, which has us thinking it’s going to be a close on, much closer than their lopsided week 3 meeting. So this game is anybody’s guess right now both SU and ATS. As such, we’re hedging out bets: we have the Bills edging the Dolphins in the SU column, but the Dolphins covering as the three-point underdogs.

NFL Picks: Dolphins +3 at Bovada

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Raiders vs. Steelers
The Steelers lost at home to Bengals last week, marking Big Ben’s comeback with a loss. He’s not happy about it at all, if his post-game interviews were any indication. This has us considering Big Ben and the Steelers are going to come out with more intensity and aggression in this match. The Raiders are proving critics wrong, so it’s not a side to underestimate particularly when they are inside the AFC race for a playoff spot. Plus they are emboldened by a win over the NY Jets in week 8 NFL betting. However, the Raiders, 2-1 ATS with a 4.3-point winning margin, have come up against some questionable sides on the road such as the Browns, Bears and Chargers. Steelers are a way better team than any of those are, which the Raiders should discern quickly at Heinz Arena.

NFL Picks: Steelers -4.5 (-105) 

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Rams vs. Vikings
The Vikings are 3-0 SU and ATS with an 11-point winning margin, with wins at the expense of the Lions, Chargers and Chiefs – all teams below .500 on the season and struggling to become viable in a season that is fast running away with the schedule. What the takeaway is from that is debatable, but clearly the Vikings are capitalising on hapless opponents. The Rams are a bit of an anomaly this season. They are good enough to beat the Seahawks (home) and Cardinals (away), but couldn’t beat the Redskins on the road. Uugh! Nevertheless, they are 4-3 SU and ATS on the season with a 1.4-point winning margin. Conspicuously, they’ve won three of their last four games and look to be in contention for a playoff spot at this stage of the season. This is a good matchup for both teams on paper; both cancel each other out in significant categories from defense (6th and 7th in the league) to the running game spearheaded by Adrian Peterson and Todd Gurley, respectively. Home edge tips this game towards the Vikings, but we’re banking on the upset on our NFL picks instead.

NFL Picks: Rams +2.5 (-105) at Bet365

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Titans vs. Saints
The Titans are a mess right now with a rookie quarterback coming off injury and a coach that’s been shown the exit door halfway through his second season with the organisation –none of which instils any confidence in their value as the road underdogs on our NFL picks. The Saints are riding the momentum of a three-game winning streak that has them improving to 4-4 SU on the season, 3-1 SU at home with a 3-point winning margin. This should be a straightforward game for the Saints at home.

NFL Picks: Saints -8 (-105) 

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Redskins vs. Patriots
Washington AT New England? Need one say more? New England Patriots are double-digit favorites on the NFL odds board in week 9 NFL betting, trading anywhere between13.5-to-14-points from sportsbook to sportsbook. It’s a hefty NFL betting spread that would make us uneasy with any other team save for the Patriots. Tom Brady and the Patriots have been playing at otherworldly levels this season. They are undefeated with a 7-0 SU mark, which includes a 4-0 SU and ATS mark at home and a 19.2-point winning margin. They should be able to cover this double-digit spread at the expense of the Redskins, who are a league worst 0-3 ATS on the road with a 10.3-point losing margin.

NFL Picks: Patriots -13.5 

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Falcons vs. 49ers
San Francisco Niners can’t seem to buy a win no matter how hard they try. They are 2-6 SU on the season, riding a two-game losing streak into week 9 NFL betting. They’ve benched Colin Kaepernick in favor of Blaine Gabbert, who has a woeful record as a starter in the league it’s best not noted here. It’s an eyesore and we’d rather spare you the pain. There’s nothing about this matchup that is appealing from the hosts perspective. The better team (read Falcons) and the better quarterback (that’s Matt Ryan in case you weren’t sure) wins and cover this game.

NFL Picks: Falcons -7 at BetOnline

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Giants vs. Buccaneers
The Giants enter as the road chalk on the NFL odds board but only nominally so at 2.5-points at most sportsbooks. In some cases, they are as low as the 1-point favorites (5Dimes). The Giants lost a shootout at the Superdome last week, while the Bucs stunned the Falcons on the road. The Bucs still just boast one home win this season, not to mention since 2014. They are 1-2 ATS this season with an 11.7-point losing margin and 1-10 ATs since 2014 with a 10.1-point losing margin.

NFL Picks: Giants -1 (-120) 

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Broncos vs. Colts
After silencing their critics in week 8 with a convincing win at home over Green Bay Packers, everybody is jumping on the Peyton Manning and Denver Broncos’ bandwagon as they get ready to roll into Indianapolis to take on the ailing Andrew Luck and his hapless Colts. The Colts are underperforming on the field and sports betting floor this season, never more so when Andrew Luck is calling the shots. So far, Matt Hasselbeck has been the better quarterback. Here’s a thought: he should start against the Broncos. In any event, at home the Colts are 1-3 ATS with a 5.8-point losing margin. The last two home games they lost, they are averaging a 6.5-point margin of defeat.

NFL Picks: Broncos -5 at WillHill

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Eagles vs. Cowboys
The Cowboys are in a freefall since losing Tony Romo for the better part of the season. They lost five straight games, since beating the Eagles 20-10 in week 2 NFL betting. That said they really competed well against the Seattle Seahawks in week 8 NFL betting, losing just 13-12 by a last-gasp drive from Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, thereby covering as the 6-point home chalk (or thereabouts depending on your sportsbook of choice). If they can bring that same intensity to this divisional rivalry we could have another slugfest on our NFL picks. Still, it’s important not to get carried away by the results of last week. The Eagles are coming off a bye week and have had lots of time to prepare for this game. They should come out firing at all cylinders to win a must-win divisional game.

NFL Picks: Eagles -3 (+100) 

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Bears vs. Chargers
The Bears and Chargers wrap up week 9 of the NFL season on Monday Night when they collide in San Diego. The Bears are 2-5 SU and the Chargers are 2-6 SU on the season, desperate to get back into the win column. San Diego are 2-6 ATS with a 4.5-point losing margin while the Bears are 2-5 ATS with an 8.9-point losing margin.

NFL Picks: Bears +4 at Heritage

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