Week 7 NFL betting is a veritable buffet of intriguing heavyweight clashes set on a tightrope of NFL odds and colossal mismatches served on lopsided NFL odds.
Week 6 NFL Betting Recap Against The Spread
The last round of NFL betting for Week 6 served up several compelling contests, several shockers, a few duds and one gauntlet throwing upset by the Cowboys. Overall, it was another good week with our NFL ATS picks going 9-5-1. Tremendous as our 11-4 mark in week 5 of NFL betting it wasn’t; nevertheless, we were in the green for another week in a row. So let’s see how we do this week, shall we. (Our record over the last three weeks: 27-15-1 ATS).
New York Jets +9.5 vs. New Patriots -9.5
The Jets are riding a five-game losing streak, something that’s going to be hard to shake at the Foxboro seeing when the Patriots have kicked it up a notch since the debacle against the Chiefs in week 4 NFL betting. Tom Brady looks like his glorious old self, Gronkowski seems healthy for the first time in ages and the O-line is playing much better around their quarterback, giving him all the time he needs to throw to his heart’s content and score with abandon. Geno Smith is in the midst of another forgettable season, riddled with mistakes, poor judgement and an inability to withstand pressure in the pocket. Against the Broncos, his pick-six sealed the Jets’ fate with a 31-17 defeat. Jets are a debilitating 0-1-1 ATS on the road this season with a whopping margin of defeat at 19-points. At first glance, this appears to be a hefty spread set to the tune of 9.5-points. Upon further consideration, weighing the Jets’ form on the road against the Patriots – who although are 1-1 ATS boast a 16.5-point margin of victory at home – the Patriots should cash in on your NFL Picks. Also, five of the six Thursday clashes this season have been veritable blowouts or high-scoring affairs.
NFL Picks: Patriots -9.5
Atlanta Falcons +7.0 vs. Baltimore Ravens -7.0
While Atlanta Falcons boast a statistically viable offense that ranks third in passing with 306.8 yards per game and accounts for 27.3 points per average this season, they’ve not been able to overcome their woeful road form. They are 0-3 ATS on the road this season with a whopping 12.3-point margin of defeat, extending their travelling misfortunes to 3-8 ATS since 2013. What’s more, the Falcons are an abysmal 1-13-0 SU on the road in their last 14 games. Those aren’t stats to inspire confidence against a Baltimore outfit that is quite formidable at home, boasting a 20-5 SU record in their last 25 home games and 10-10-0 ATS since 2012 with an average margin of victory hovering around 7.4 points.
NFL Picks: Ravens -7.0
Carolina Panthers +7.0 vs. Green Bay Packers -7.0
This is going to be a must-see game if last week’s plucky performance by both Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers is anything to go by. Newton inspired the Panthers to a sensational account against the Bengals that resulted in a 37-37 tie, the first such of the season by any team. Rodgers’ last gasp pass for a touchdown lifted the Packers to a 27-24 victory over the Dolphins. Both teams covered with the Panthers improving to 4-2 ATS this season and the Packers to 3-2-1 ATS. Odds makers are leaning wholeheartedly towards the hosts: they are 1-0-1 ATS this season (100% winning ratio, small sample size though it might be) with a whopping 19.5 margin of victory which is largely down to the 42-10 win over the Vikings. In the last two weeks, Panthers have proven their merit as a legitimate competitor – rallying to beat the Bears in week 5 to cover as the 3-point chalk and rallying to tie the Bengals and cover as the 7-point pups. Importantly, Newton enjoyed his best outing of the season against the Bengals completing 29-of-46 passes for two touchdowns and rushing for 107 yards. He’s a potent double-threat that could give the Packers’ defense some headaches, if not keep the game close. Indeed, this game could go either way in spread betting. If we’re to buckle down on one side, the Packers home edge and consistency of late and the fact that Rodgers is clutch at centre has us leaning towards them as well.
NFL Picks: Packers -7.0
Cincinnati Bengals +3.0 vs. Indianapolis Colts -3.0
After a solid start to the season that had many tipping the Bengals as the best outfit of the 2014 NFL betting season, the Bengals have suffered a bit of a letdown. Week 5’s decimation by the Patriots followed by a dissatisfactory tie to the Panthers in week 6 has seen their stock value drop. When players are finger pointing and publically calling each other out, it speaks to a worrisome undercurrent of tension in the locker room. Back-to-back disappointments are understandably frustrating. However, for a team to come undone at the seams when they are still very much in the thick of the hunt for a playoff berth doesn’t bode well. Certainly, not ahead of a date with one of the hottest quarterbacks this season, spearheading one of the league’s best offenses. Colts as the 3-point chalk seem to be a steal week 7 NFL pick.
NFL Picks: Colts -3.0
Cleveland Browns -5.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5
Cleveland Browns have found their groove after a bumpy start to the season, largely down to Brian Hoyer’s elevated play. The backup quarterback is doing everything he can to raise his stock value in the league, knowing with John Manziel waiting in the wings his time with the Browns has an expiry date. The Browns are 3-0-2 ATS this season, which yields a 100% winning ratio for Browns backers n the season so far. Jaguars meanwhile are 0-5 SU on the season and 1-4 ATS on the season. Although they are after their first cover in a 16-14 defeat to the Titans on the road, they still leak points like nobody’s business (average margin of defeat is 17.3-points). Browns are the deserved 5.5-point favourites on the road in this game.
NFL Picks: Browns -5.5
Miami Dolphins +3.0 vs. Chicago Bears -3.0
Dolphins are 2-3 ATS this season, flush off a disappointing 27-24 defeat at home to the Packers. They descend on the Bears, who boast a 3-3 ATS record this season and are flush off a convincing 27-13 win over the Falcons on the road no less. Jay Cutler seems to have found his groove again after back-to-back disappointments against Green Bay and Carolina. Ryan Tannehill has also perked up ever since hints began circulating about his tenuous grasp on the starting job. The loss of Moreno for the season though is a big hit for the Dolphins.
NFL Picks: Bears -3.0
Minnesota Vikings +4.5 vs. Buffalo Bills -4.5
Vikings are 2-4 ATS this season and after a lacklustre 17-3 defeat at home to the Detroit Lions. The Bills are 3-3 ATS and after a blowout 37-22 defeat to the Patriots at home. Bills have lost three of their last four games; their only win coming at the expense of the Lions in week 5 NFL betting, a right shocker that sent seismic shockwaves through sportsbooks. Vikings have lost four of their last five games; their only success was a 41-28 win over the Falcons behind Bridgewater’s debut. Lions exposed Bridgewater’s inexperience by forcing three turnovers. Bills defense, which is quite decent this season, should take a page from Lions’ conservative account on how to play the young QB.
NFL Picks: Bills -4.0
New Orleans Saints +3.0 vs. Detroit Lions -3.0
The Lions are 4-2 SU this season, which includes a 2-1SU record at home. Saints meanwhile are winless on the road this season both in SU and ATS betting, a fact that doesn’t shock anybody really. NFL betting circles are familiar with the Saints’ travel woes – Saints are 7-14 ATS on the road since 2012 with a margin of defeat hovering around 4.9-points. That being said, the Saints have the second best passing offense in the league, which averages 309.8 yards per game. They are coming off a bye week, which gives them some added time to prepare for the defensively sound Lions, first in the league defending against the pass at 197.2. This could very well be as tight as the odds makers would have us believe, but we’re going to take a chance on the Saints as the 3-point pups on the road.
NFL Picks: Saints +3.0
Seattle Seahawks -6.5 vs. St. Louis Rams +6.5
So the Seattle Seahawks aren’t as imperious as they were last season. Defending their Super Bowl credentials is proving more challenging than perhaps they’d expected it to be, and their formidable home record came undone last week behind a shocking Cowboys win. Surprising though it might be, it’s hardly the end of the world. Bookies aren’t putting much stock into that week 6 NFL upset. Instead, they send the Seahawks on the road as the 6.5-point faves against divisional rivals St. Louis Rams. Rams are after a defeat to another divisional rival – the Niners. Austin Davis, though an NFL Cinderella story this season, can’t do it alone. Rams’ gave up 432 yards in their 31-17 loss to the Niners. If the Rams defense had no answers to the Niners offense, they’ll have their hands full with Seattle O-line itching to prove their worth after being called out by one of their own, Doug Baldwin.
NF Picks: Seahawks -6.5
Tennessee Titans +5.5 vs. Washington Redskins -5.5
Titans snapped a four-game skid last week with a 16-14 win over the Jaguars. Although Titans backers were chuffed to get the “W,” it was hardly the sort of convincing performance to inspire confidence going forward. The Titans were outgained by Jaguars even though they somehow pulled off the nominal 2-point win. Offense is nothing to write home about, 24th in passing and 14th in rushing all while averaging a meagre 17.3 points per game. While the Redskins are struggling to win games at the moment having lost four in a row, some allowance has to be made for being victimised by a tough stretch in the schedule with Eagles, Giants, Seahawks and Cardinals in succession. Tennessee Titans present their first realistically winnable game in some time. Washington’s offense is fifth in the league in passing with 296.5 yards per game and an average of over 22-points.
NFL Picks: Redskins -5.5
Kansas City Chiefs +4.0 vs. San Diego Chargers -4.0
Chiefs are 3-2 ATS this season with an average 3.6 margin of victory. The most impressive bit however is the fact that they’ve pulled off covers against some serious heavyweights – Patriots, Broncos and Niners this season. Chargers are a better 5-1-0 ATS this season, but they failed to cover against a winless Raiders last week in come-from-behind 31-28 win, marking their first loss against the spread. Chiefs are coming off a bye and have had a lot of time to think about what approach they’ll be taking here. Fortunately for them, it’s not going to be a scorcher in mid-October as it was during the Seahawks visit last month. Chiefs’ seventh best passing defense in the league (214.4 yards allowed per game) could give Philip Rivers and company a run for their money. Take the points with the Chiefs on your NFL picks.
NFL Picks: Chiefs +4.0
Arizona Cardinals -3.5 vs. Oakland Raiders +3.5
There were plenty of positives last week in Tony Sparano’s head coaching debut at the helm of the Raiders, even behind a 31-28 defeat to the Chargers. It was the first time the Raiders O-line looked like it had some life; it was the first time they put up more than 20-points on the board; and it was Carr’s best game of the season with 18-of-34 passes completed for 282 yards and four touchdowns, marking the first Raider rookie to accomplish a four-touchdown game. Raiders are 3-2-0 ATS this season. That said Carson Palmer is back at centre for the Cardinals. He was huge in their 30-20 win over the Redskins. Look for Arizona Cardinals to win big as the 3.5-point chalk on the road.
NFL Picks: Cardinals -3.5
New York Giants +6.0 vs. Dallas Cowboys -6.0
How do the Giants bounce back from a humiliating 27-0 defeat to the Eagles? Against the Cowboys who appear to be legitimate Super Bowl contenders no less, contrary to wide preseason NFL betting expectations. Cowboys’ defense isn’t as bad as assumed initially. Romo is finding his stride after back surgery and he’ll be looking to back-up the upset over Seattle in week 7 NFL betting as the 8-point chalk. How can NFL bettors go against a five-game winning streak and a 4-2 ATS record on the season when the alternative blows hot and cold this season?
NFL Picks: Cowboys -6.0
San Francisco 49ers +6.5 vs. Denver Broncos -6.5
This is going to be one of the toughest games to handicap on the NFL weekend slate, never mind being the marquee clash as well. Niners are after a come-from-behind 31-17 win over the Rams to improve to 4-2 ATS this season. Meanwhile, the Broncos are flush off a convincing 31-17 win over the Jets on the road to clinch their second straight cover of the season, improving to 2-3 ATS this season. Touchdown maestro Peyton Manning, who is chasing Brett Favre’s all-time TD record, has been a big factor in the Broncos last few games. However, consider the Niners defense is one of the best in the league a 6.5-point spread does seem disingenuous.
NFL Picks: Niners +6.5
Houston Texans +3.0 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers -3.0
The last game of the NFL betting slate in week 7 features Houston Texans and the Pittsburgh Steelers. While both have suffered their share of setbacks in recent weeks, the difference between them is the Texans have been impressive while the Steelers have been baffling. Texans put up a good fight against the Colts last weekend and very nearly pulled off the cover as well as the upset. It was the second game in a row they were played close. Look for the Texans to cash as the 3-point underdogs on your NFL picks against a Steelers side that flatters to deceive NFL bettors.
NFL Picks: Texans +3.0 at YouWager