NFL Picks: Game-by- Game ATS Breakdown for Week 7 Betting

Nikki Adams

Thursday, October 22, 2015 1:13 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 22, 2015 1:13 PM GMT

Week 7 NFL odds are in full swing, and we go through them all, serving up our predictions against the spread for all 14 matchups. Find out which teams make the cut on our NFL picks this week.

Seahawks vs. Niners
Fourth quarter collapses have been a bane of the Seattle Seahawks this season, so much so that the NFL might want to consider content ratings before the start of the dreaded last quarter, warning the ‘content might not be suitable for Seahawks’ fans and viewer discretion may be required’.

Four losses through the first six weeks of the season, all while leading in all four games at some point, marks one of the worst starts for Pete Carroll’s boys in recent memory. They are also a discouraging 1-4-1 ATS with a 1.5-point losing margin overall. Most of their troubles have come on the road, where they are a disenchanting 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS with a 5.3-point losing margin. As the road favourites in week 1, they failed to get the job done in a 34-31 loss in OT to divisional foes Rams.

For the second time this season, against another divisional foe, the Seahawks enter a road game as the favourites. They opened on 4-points but have quickly been bet up to 6.5-points across sports betting platforms. The question most NFL bettors are asking: can we really buy into this market?

When the Niners are equally disappointing this season with a 2-4 SU mark and an average losing margin of 10-points, it does seem like the Seahawks would be a good buy. Inasmuch as the Seahawks have collapsed in the fourth quarter, the Niners quarter-by-quarter are an exercise in frustration, going from good-to-bad-to-ugly and repeating that cycle backwards and forwards. It’s enough to do anybody’s head in. Yet, they’ve visibly perked up in the last few weeks, by holding the Packers to just 17 points in a losing effort; giving the Giants a run for their money on the road before a late rally by Eli Manning sealed the victory for the G-Men; and, finally, getting back into the win column with a 25-20 win over the Ravens at home, putting all those positives of the previous weeks together in a winning effort.

So basically, San Francisco have the mini-momentum going for them and home advantage, where they are 2-1 ATS as home underdogs with a 2.7-winning margin. Some of the shine has come off the Legion of Boom this season, which the Niners must have noticed too. That adds up to an NFL pick on the home underdogs in our books. What do you think?
NFL Picks: Niners +6.5 (-110) at Bet365

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Bills vs. Jaguars (LONDON)
The Bills are banged up and the Jaguars are the same old Jaguars, who may not improve on their 1-5 SU record anytime soon. This is a London game with an early start, although who’s going to get up in the morning to watch it beats us. Worst bit, there seems to be no consensus amongst bookies in terms of the spread for this game. After opening on 3.5-points, it’s moved up to 5.5 at some books, 6 or 6.5 points at others and, even, seven points in a select few. How to make heads or tails of this? Hmm, perhaps flip a coin literally and call it heads-Bills and tails-Jaguars. Then pick the best NFL line for the team winning the coin toss to cover. We got heads. So Bills to cover 5.5-points It is.
NFL Picks: Bills -5.5 (-110) at Bovada

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Falcons vs. Titans
Atlanta Falcons had their wings clipped in week 6 by divisional foes New Orleans Saints in a 31-21 road loss. The narrative wasn’t particularly flattering for Dan Quinn and the Falcons on the heels of their Thursday Night defeat, but it was only the first loss of the season. Falcons are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS with a 6.7-point winning margin. In their second road game in as many weeks they take on a beatable Titans side, who might have to game plan without Marcus Mariota. Falcons are 1-0-0 ATS in Non-Conference games with a 27-point winning margin – thanks to a massive win over another AFC South team the Houston Texans and they are a healthy 4-1 ATS with a 10-point winning margin in non-divisional games. Surprisingly, the NFL spread is on a rather low 3.5-points at most sportsbooks and enjoying a high of 4.5-points at others with a few coming somewhere in between that range. Surely, Matt Ryan and the Falcons can cover that nominal spread handily for us on our NFL picks?
NFL Picks: Falcons -3.5 (-110) Westgate

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Browns vs. Rams
Cleveland Browns are trying to play tough, but for all the good it’s doing. They are 2-4 SU on the season, coming off an overtime loss to the Broncos. That said they are 4-2 ATS with a 2.8-point losing margin. Their last couple of defeats were close calls decided by just 3-points. So it’s with some surprise that the NFL betting line for this game, which opened appropriately at 4.5-points, is now up to 5.5-to-6 points. Have the Rams blown out anybody this season? Some of their games have been blowouts, but those had the Rams on the receiving end – losses to both the Packers and Redskins by the same score of 24-10. Obviously, it makes perfect sense to have the Rams as the whopping 6-point faves in this game.

Clearly, we’re trying to talk our way into picking the Browns, but just the thought of it is enough to give us pause. Granted they played the Broncos close last weekend, but that doesn’t mean much in the NFL, which as a rule is unpredictable. They could be in for a let-down performance while the Rams, coming off a bye, could finally light up.
NFL Picks: Rams -5 (-110) at 5Dimes

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Texans vs. Dolphins
It was time to put up or shut up for the Dolphins in week 6, so they delivered. Coming through for their new interim head coach Dan Campbell in his first game with a big win over the Jaguars on the road. Similarly, it was time for the Texans to give Brian Hoyer a real chance, so O’Brien did. The Texans won. The pair will be looking to make it two in a row, and buck the negative trend on the season they share: both are 0-1 SU and ATS after a win this season. Of course, something is going to have to give. Odds makers favour the hosts anywhere from 4-to-4.5 points, which is a move up from 3.5-points at opening doors. The public is all over the Dolphins too with a 60-40 split approximately, along with the majority of NFL betting experts that are fawning over the Dolphins and singing Campbell’s praises. Clearly, all and sundry are buying what he is selling. Yet there’s a few rules to consider here: as a rule, teams play well for a new coach in his first game in charge. 2) The other rule is that the following game is usually a setback. We like rules. They provide some comfort particularly in games where the outcome is honestly a tossup.
NFL Picks: Texans +4.5 (-110) at Bet365

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Vikings vs. Lions
Let’s just get right to the point: how can the Vikings be the road faves in this game. Forget the struggles the Lions are enjoying on the season. Did you know the Vikings have just one road win with Teddy Bridgewater since last season, none this term (0-2 SU away with a 10-point losing margin). That lone win came against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in week 8. Since then, they lost five successive road games (three in 2014 and two this season). Since 2014, they are 2-8 SU and 6-4 ATS on the road with 4.2-point losing margin.

To look at it another way, it’s a rather bold NFL pick to predict the Lions win two in a row at home. They only just won their first game of the season and not without some luck going their way. However, on principle, Vikings as the 2.5-point to 3-point road faves don’t sit well with us.
NFL Picks: Lions +3 (-110) at Bovada

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Saints vs. Colts
Let’s just be upfront about this NFL pick: we’re not picking the Colts. Now, that you know where our money is going, here’s why. The Colts haven’t impressed us this season at al. The way we see it, they are a .500 team largely down to a suspect AFC South division. Literally, they’ve only beaten divisional opponents through six games of the season. Against non-divisional opponents, they are 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS with an 11-point losing margin. A fun fact: Andrew Luck is just 20-19 SU and ATS with a 4.5-point losing margin in non-divisional games. Until we see a better Colts effort this season, they’re there for the taking in our opinion by any opponent. Even one that has struggled like the Saints have this season.
NFL Picks: Saints +5 (-115) Betdsi

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Jets vs. Patriots
Law of Averages says the Patriots are bound to lose a game this season. The chances they would go 16-0 SU are not improbable but rather unlikely when the target on their backs as the defending champions is hard to miss. On the strength of defense and the divisional rivalry involved, some NFL bettors maintain that this game has an “upset” feel to it, but it would take a lot Manhattans to convince us to actually predict the massive upset.

Where there could value on your NFL picks is against the spread. This game might be a lot closer than the NFL odds makers would have you believe. Patriots are 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS with a 16-point winning margin. Last week, they missed the cover by allowing a garbage touchdown, which was one of the negatives Tom Brady alluded to in his post-game presser.

So in short, the Patriots are without doubt one of the best teams this season, but the Jets aren’t going to be the pushovers you’d think. At home they are 1-1 ATS with a 20.5-point winning margin, largely down to routing the Jaguars. In the division, they are 1-0 ATS with an 8-point winning margin (features the win over the Bills in week 2).  Since 2014, they are 3-4 ATS against divisional foes with a 4.7-point winning margin.
NFL Picks: Jets +10 (-125) at 5Dimes

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Steelers vs. Chiefs
It’s looking like Big Ben isn’t going to start this weekend against the Chiefs. That could change by game time, so keep a close eye on the developments. Regardless of who starts, the Steelers have shown their grit, depth and mettle by winning games without Big Ben. They are enjoying a two-game winning streak and they are a perfect, league-leading 5-0-1 ATS with an 8.2-winning margin (a record shared with the Bengals). Considering the Steelers and Bengals have two of the toughest NFL schedules this season, those stats are mighty encouraging. Likewise, discouraging to Chiefs and their fans. We’ve picked the Chiefs a few times over the last few weeks to cover – a strategy that is clearly not working well as they are just 1-5 ATS with a 5.3-point losing margin. It’s time for a change, so we’re just going to do the opposite this time.
NFL Picks: Steelers -2 (-105) at 5Dimes

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Bucs vs. Redskins
This is the least attractive of all the matchups on the week between two sides that are hardly going to factor in the postseason. We’re not drinking the Kool-Aid of either team really. A week after manhandling the Falcons, the Redskins fell to the NY Jets in a 34-20 loss away. The Redskins play better at home though where they are 2-1 SU and ATS with a 3.3-point winning margin. The 3-point chalk is reasonable for this game, as such we’re laying the points with the Redskins. For the brave NFL bettors out there, an additional half-point on this game earns you a better juice at Bovada.
NFL Picks: Redskins -3.5 (+100) at The Greek

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Raiders vs. Chargers
The Chargers must be feeling hard done by right now. They lost a narrow game to a Michael Vick-inspired Steelers two weeks ago. Last week, Rivers put up some eye-popping numbers for all the good it did in a losing effort at Lambeau. This is a divisional rivalry the Chargers will want to get the better of in week 7 NFL betting.
NFL Picks: Chargers -4 (-110) at Bet365

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Cowboys vs. Giants
The Cowboys are headed north to take on the NY Giants in a divisional rivalry with far reaching consequences, all while their season seems to be headed south. Giants are after an abysmal showing in Philadelphia this Monday, a rather forgettable 27-7 loss. After opening on a 5.5-point spread, this game has come down to a 3.5-point line. Frankly, without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant it’s hard to pick the Cowboys at all.
NFL Picks: Giants -3.5 (-110) at BetOnline

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Eagles vs. Panthers
The Panthers are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS with an 8.2-point winning margin. Most recently, they are coming off a huge win over the Seattle Seahawks on the road, a win that many are reacting to in our opinion with their week 7 NFL picks. Eagles seem to have righted the ship of late, winning their last two games and improving to 3-3 SU and ATS with a 5.7-point winning margin. This is a Primetime game, with which comes a lot of pressure. Sam Bradford can still be dicey and turnover the ball quite a lot, but the Eagles defense could play a huge factor in keeping this game close.
NFL Picks: Eagles +3 (+100) at Bet365

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Ravens vs. Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals suffered a loss to the Steelers in week 6 NFL betting, behind a third string quarterback who came out of nowhere and stole the show. The Cards will be looking to bounce back in week 7 at home and with the NFC West looking like it’s their for the taking right now, you can bet Bruce Arians and the Cardinals will be ready for the Jim Harbaugh and the Ravens. Arizona are 4-2 SU and ATS with a 14.7-point winning margin and 2-1 SU and ATS at home with a 16.7-point winning margin. The Ravens have yet to be blown out in any of their losses this season – they are 0-5-1 ATS with a 3.2-losing margin. However, with the losses piling up and their season looking like it’s all but a write off, this could be the first game in which they suffer a hefty defeat.
NFL Picks: Cardinals -7.5 (-105) at Bet365

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