NFL Picks: Game-by-Game ATS Betting Guide for Week 16

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, December 23, 2015 1:23 PM UTC

Wednesday, Dec. 23, 2015 1:23 PM UTC

We put together a comprehensive game-by-game analysis of week 16 matchups and serve up our choice NFL picks against the spread. Find out which way are predictions fall.

Week 15 Recap of ATS NFL Picks
We rounded out our ATS picks handsomely in week 15, finishing on a 10-5-1 mark at the close of MNF. Overall, we improve to 116-102-6 on the season. Two more weeks of the regular season remain, so let’s get cracking with our week 16 NFL betting picks.


Chargers vs. Raiders
The Oakland Raiders are coming off a 30-20 loss to the Packers at home, failing to cover as the 4-point underdogs at home. It marked the fourth missed cover in their last six games as they slip to a 7-7 ATS mark on the season with a 2.6-point losing margin on average. In fact, the covers over this run of form came behind wins alone: a 24-21 win over Tennessee on the road as the 1-point favorite and a surprising 15-2 win over Denver on the road as the 6-point underdogs. The Raiders have lost their last three home games and have gone 0-3 ATS in those. Crucially, the Raiders are just 2-5 ATS at home with a 6.9-point losing margin and a negative 3.9-point differential against the spread. They are also 0-1 ATS as home favorites. Despite those negative trends they are the overwhelming 5-point faves at home to the Chargers in TNF.

That’s more a reflection of the Chargers and their poor season rather than a statement about the Raiders, even if they are essentially the better of the two teams. The Chargers are just 4-10 SU and 6-8 ATS on the season with a 4.9-point losing margin and a negative 3-point differential against the spread. Crucially, the Chargers are 4-2 ATS on the road with a 5.5-point losing margin on average and a plus 0.8-point differential against the spread. Consensus betting is overwhelmingly lopsided on this game with the bulk of tickets coming down the wire going towards the Raiders. To be exact 61.10% of spread tickets amounting to a staggering 91.45% of the money on this game is on the Raiders to cover as the 5-point faves. Where of the mind to fade this NFL trend and take a chance on the Chargers.

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NFL Picks: Chargers +5 (+100)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle


Redskins vs. Eagles
The Redskins are a win away from sewing up the NFC East title. It’s theirs for the taking, if they can rise to the occasion in Philadelphia. There’s just one tiny caveat: the Redskins have struggled on the road this season behind a 1-5 SU mark and a 2-4 ATS mark that features at 12.2-point losing margin and a negative 5.1-point differential against the spread. Of course, the Redskins could very well transcend their travelling yips and come through for NFL bettors. But are we really ready to write off the Eagles entirely. Sure, last week was a bit of a disaster behind a 40-17 loss to the Cardinals. Then again, it was the Cardinals – red hot since bursting out the gates this season en route to the playoffs. This is a game the Eagles must win and, arguably, it’s a winnable game for them too. The NFL line opened on the 4-point mark earlier this week but it has come down to 3-points at most sportsbooks. A closer look at SBR consensus trends reveals the public is all over the Redskins, but sharp bettors are on the Eagles. We too are fading the Redskins and taking a chance on the maligned Eagles to make things a little more interesting in the NFC East.

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NFL Picks: Eagles -3 (+100)
Best Line Offered: at The Greek


Panthers vs. Falcons
Only a fortnight ago, the Panthers crushed the Falcons 38-0, covering the 8.5-point spread more than comfortably. It’s a bit optimistic to expect the exact same lopsided outcome in this game. Then again, the Falcons really haven’t improved much at all since their trip to Charlotte two weeks ago, now have they?

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NFL Picks: Panthers -6.5 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage


Bears vs. Bucs
The Buccaneers slipped to their second straight defeat in as many weeks on Thursday. The loss to the St. Louis Rams on the road probably cost them any slim hope they had of the postseason and takes the shine off of them for the coming weekend clash with the Bears. The Bears are in worse shape behind a three-game losing streak and a 0-3 ATS record over that dip in form. In more ways than one, this game is a right tossup with both sides due a bounce back performance. Something is sure to give in this game and if we’re putting down money on it the hosts leap off the page as the tempting NFL pick. Bears could defy the NFL odds altogether but the Bucs have been the slightly better team in recent weeks.

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NFL Picks: Bucs -3 (-110)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage


Browns vs. Chiefs
Alex Smith and the Chiefs are playing inspired football of late, reeling off eight straight wins to not only get back into the playoff picture they are also in a position to give the Denver Broncos a run for their money down the stretch. That was unimaginable when they were sporting a 1-5 SU mark in week 6. Auspiciously, the Chiefs are set to face the hapless Cleveland Browns led by their off-the-field delinquent quarterback Johnny Manziel. The Browns were crushed by the Seahawks 30-13 last week as the 14.5-point closing underdogs. And two weeks prior they were decimated by the Bengals 37-3 as the 7.5-point underdogs. It’s no surprise, therefore, with such wide margins of defeat the Browns enter this game as the whopping 12.5-point underdogs or thereabouts. Now, the Chiefs have yet to cover a double-digit spread this season. But they were favored so only once when they hosted Philip Rivers and the Chargers. Manziel is no Rivers to begin with and the Browns are the worst in the NFL this season against the spread with a 3-11 ATS mark that includes a 9.6-point losing margin and a negative 5.3-point differential against the spread. It’s a risky NFL pick in some respects, but we’re chancing the Chiefs on ours.

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NFL Picks: Chiefs -10.5 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage


Cowboys vs. Bills
Despite all the challenges the Cowboys have faced on the offensive side of the ball, their defense has tried to do its part to keep them in games. Still, the Cowboys are just 4-10 ATS on the season with a 5.6-point losing margin and a negative 3.5-point differential against the spread. They are 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall and 2-1 ATS in their last three road games. That alone suggests some value in the Cowboys as the hefty road underdogs here. However, games aren’t played on paper but on the field and in their last game the Cowboys yanked Matt Cassel out after a largely ineffective account. One has to consider how low team ethos must be and the general mood of gloom that hangs over the Cowboys. This is a good opportunity for the Bills to bounce back with a win and cover at home.

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NFL Picks: Bills -6 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage


Texans vs. Titans
With the AFC South title on the line, it looks to be a battle of the backups as Brandon Weeden and Zach Mettenberger lead the teams onto the field. No pressure. Despite the quarterback quandary, the Texans emerge as the considerable road favourites on the NFL odds board down largely to a better overall team, pinned down by one of the stoutest defenses. The Titans are out and haven’t got much to play for in week 16. Besides, from what we’ve seen of Mettenberger it doesn’t inspire confidence.

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NFL Picks: Texans -3.5 (+106) at Pinnacle

Colts vs. Dolphins
This has been a largely forgettable season for the Colts, yet they are still in the hunt for the AFC South title. But only just. They need a win over the Dolphins to keep hope alive in week 17 NFL betting. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are down and out. The bonhomie over interim coach Dan Campbell has waned as the Dolphins have lost six of their last eight games. They have nothing but pride left to play for when they welcome the Colts. That and the role of party poopers, if they defeat the Colts.

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NFL Picks: Dolphins -2.5 (-105) at Heritage


Patriots vs. Jets
The New England Patriots travel to New York as the 3-point road favorites across most sports betting outlets. Some are already recording slightly higher 3.5-point lines as the public continues to pound the Patriots. If you like the Patriots as much as we do, then this could be a game to bet now before the line swells higher. The Jets have a lot at stake in the outcome of this game and they’re sure to give the Patriots a run for their money in what should be a close game altogether. That is unless Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets buckle under the pressure of expectation.

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NFL Picks: Patriots -3 (-107)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle


Steelers vs. Ravens
Steelers are riding the momentum of a three-game winning streak, which includes wins over Indy, Cincy and Denver. They’ve won five of their last six games and split those 3-3 ATS. The Ravens barely strike a convincing pose right now with a three-game losing streak and an overall 3-11 ATS mark on the season.

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NFL Picks: Steelers -10 (+100)
Best Line Offered: at Bet365


Niners vs. Lions
The Lions are after an impressive 35-27 win over the Saints in MNF. It’s a short week but a home game that features a listless side that’s sputtering towards the postseason with the intensity and enthusiasm of a snail. At first glance, the 9-point spread seems a bit rich for two teams that aren’t too far apart where the win column is concerned. The edge the Lions have though is on the offensive side of the board when Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson light up. What’s more, the Niners are just 4-10 ATS with a 9.8-point losing margin on average which falls right into the ball park of the current NFL betting spread. Take the Lions on your NFL picks to give the beleaguered home fans something to cheer about if you can still find NFL odds under 10-points. Anything in double-digits and it might be a risky play for your NFL picks.

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NFL Picks: Lions -9 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage


Jaguars vs. Saints
The Jaguars have their best chance to serve up an upset at the Superdome this weekend. Drew Brees is reportedly playing injured – assuming he lasts the game – and the Saints are coming off a heavy 35-27 loss to the Lions on MNF. Not to mention, the Saints have lost nine of their last 12 games at home, including their last three at the Superdome. 

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NFL Picks: Jaguars +3 (+105) 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker


Packers vs. Cardinals
This should be one of the more thrilling contests of the season as we approach the NFL playoffs. The Packers and Cardinals are sure to flex their muscles in an NFC showdown that could potentially be a preview of the NFC championship game. Fittingly, the betting is healthy on both sides of the coin with the Cardinals edging the Packers ever so slightly as the home favorites. The Cardinals should probably win given their current eight-game winning streak, but the Packers could give them a run for their money as the 4.5-point road underdogs, if not mastermind the upset.

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NFL Picks: Packers +4.5 (+103)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle


Rams vs. Seahawks
The Rams and Seahawks typically play each other quite fiercely and competitively. In fact, the Rams defeated the Seahawks in week 1, setting the tone for a rocky start for Seattle. The Seahawks eventually did find their rhythm and Russell Wilson is playing some inspired football despite having lost some of his fave go-to targets. In recent weeks, the Seahawks have really turned it up and covered double-digit spreads with seeming ease. Naturally, that’s prompted another hefty spread for this game. However, this time, we’re going against the Seahawks as 14.5-point home chalk. We’re banking on the Rams to turn up at CenturyLink and give the Seahawks a good ol’ NFC West fight.

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NFL Picks: Rams +14.5 (-120)
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes


Giants vs. Vikings
The Giants are coming off a heart-breaking loss to the Panthers last week, which might have cost them the NFC East title. The G-men did rally to tie the game 35-35, erasing a 28-point deficit with just a minute left in the game. However, that was all it took for the Panthers to drive one more time down the field and kick a game-winning field goal. Worse bit of news for the Giants is they might have to play without Odell Beckham Jr., who was suspended for conduct unbecoming of an NFL player following his shenanigans against the Panthers. As a result, the Giants open as the sever 6-point underdogs to the Vikings on the road. Odell Beckham is still to appeal the decision, so it’s important to see what that verdict is before placing your NFL picks on this game. Regardless of the outcome of his appeal, it still feels like a lot of points to be laying with the Vikings.

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NFL Picks: Giants +6 (-110)
Best Line Offered: at Bet365


Bengals vs. Broncos
Although Andy Dalton and Peyton Manning will be stood on the side lines watching this game there is still a lot of excitement brewing about this MNF showdown which will showcase the unheralded AJ McCarron and Denver understudy Brock Osweiler going head-to-head. In more ways than one, this is a tough game to call given these uncertainties and variables. Two things however have us leaning towards the Broncos and that is home advantage coupled with Brock Osweiler’s sixth start. All we’ve seen from AJ McCarron is one start and that was against the Niners. Hardly a ringing endorsement of the kid even though he did a good job altogether.

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NFL Picks: Broncos -3.5 (+103)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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