NFL Picks: Game-by-Game ATS Betting Guide for Week 15

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, December 16, 2015 8:42 PM GMT

Wednesday, Dec. 16, 2015 8:42 PM GMT

Here’s a rundown of all week 15 NFL betting matchups, complete with NFL betting odds and NFL picks against the spread for each and every game.

NFL Betting Recap Week 14 ATS Picks
We closed week 14 on an 8-8 mark with our ATS picks, which has us improving to 106-97-5 on the season when betting against the spread. In conjunction with our ATS picks, our SU picks went 11-5 in week 14, improving our tally for the season to 123-85-0 in straight up winners.

Below, we serve up our NFL betting analysis and NFL picks for week 15, using current NFL betting lines. Keep in mind the NFL lines continue to move throughout the week, so shop around for the best lines available at the time of your bets.

 

Buccaneers vs. Rams
Surprisingly, the St Louis Rams continue to improve on the NFL odds board, from an opening +1 on Sunday they’ve been bet up to a high of -2.5 and, even, -3 at some sports betting shops, marking a complete and utter fence jump on this game on the NFL betting floor. What gives? Sure, the Rams beat the Lions last week 21-14, cashing as the 3-point home underdogs. But that was their first win and cover in six games. Prior to that they’d been on a 5-game losing run both SU and ATS. By contrast, the Bucs are 3-2 SU and ATS in their last five games and 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS in their last nine games. Consensus betting reports at SBR reveals 51.92% of tickets wagered on the game are going towards the Rams, but, more importantly, those tickets comprise 86.63% of the money risked. That’s quite the lopsided betting by the public, which prompts us to consider fading the public entirely on our NFL picks. Jameis Winston has been playing solidly for the Bucs. He didn’t have the greatest game last week against the Saints and the lost cost them big. There’s also the primetime consideration, a debut for the rookie quarterback under the spotlight. Still, it’s going to be interesting to see what he’s made of and we’re not so convinced they should be written off entirely.

NFL Picks: Buccaners +3 (-110) betway

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Jets vs. Cowboys
The Jets are riding the momentum of a three-game winning streak that propels them firmly into the playoff picture. They’re sixth in the race at the moment and looking to win out down the stretch. The Cowboys still have a mathematical shot to reach the playoffs, but it’s a longshot. Besides, what’s the point if they get there? They won’t hold up against the better teams with backup Matt Cassel. Almost a waste of a playoff spot, you’d think. In any event, the line on this game has been relatively steady on 3-points since opening on Sunday with the Jets favored on the road. Consensus betting is split 65-35 approximately between the Jets and Cowboys in both tickets wagered and actual money. If you like this line for the Jets, jump on it now before it swells higher. Already some books are sporting -3.5 for this game. We’re going with the Jets on our NFL picks. Fitzpatrick and the offense – Ivory and Marshall—are lighting it up for the NYJ. Look for them to continue their scoring ways over the Cowboys in week 15.

NFL Picks: Jets -3 (-115) 5Dimes

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Falcons vs. Jaguars
The Falcons are riding a nine-game losing streak against the spread, which coincides with their sudden and dramatic drop from a 5-0 SU start to a 6-7SU mark going into week 15. How can anybody trust the Falcons on their NFL picks beggars belief? Granted the Falcons could turn it around on a dime. But hanging your hat on assumption rather than tangibles is a risky play. Consensus betting reports at SBR reveal more money is on the Falcons rather than the Jaguars, which could be an indication sharp bettors like the road underdogs here. For our money, we’re fading the sharps and taking the Jaguars. There’s an argument to be had about the Jaguars being the best performing team in the AFC South right now. They are 7-5-1 ATS and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.

NFL Picks: Jaguars -3 (-105) Heritage

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Bills vs. Redskins
The Bills and Redskins are fighting for their slim playoff lives. Well, the Bills have the tougher path into the playoffs. Sat ninth in the AFC race they have all to do to squeak through, not to mention the stars have to align just right. Due to an anaemic NFC East, the Redskins are currently in fourth place by virtue of leading the division. Whether they can hold on to that lofty position is another matter entirely. With the Eagles and Giants level on a 6-7 SU record and widely considered better options to make the playoffs, few are confident the Redskins will win out down the stretch. Indeed, consensus betting at SBR reveals sharp money likes the Bills. We’ve gone back and forth on this NFL pick, settling on one deal breaker to determine which way go; that is, home advantage where the Redskins are 5-2 SU at home and 4-3 ATS with a 6.7 winning margin and a plus 7.7-point differential against the spread. That said a win by the Bills wouldn’t shock us, but we’d lose on this NFL pick.

NFL Picks: Redskins +1.5 (-102)  Pinnacle

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Panthers vs. Giants
The Panthers are undeniably the deserved favorites behind a league-leading 13-0 SU mark and a stellar 10-3 ATS mark, which includes a 12.9-point winning margin and a plus 9.6-differntial against the spread. Those stats are so convincing you’d have to be barking mad to bet against the Panthers. Yet, the G-men are notorious dangerous floaters who’ve derailed undefeated teams before. Having such a record of success means they’ll go into this contest fancying their chances. Earlier this season, they came up against another undefeated side then – the NE Patriots. And didn’t they almost win the game, only for a last-gasp field goal by the Patriots snatching the win from the eager clutches of the Giants. They get a second crack at an undefeated team this season in week 15 NFL betting. It’s a long shot NFL pick, but one that does have a reasonable probability of coming through. That alone has us banking on the upset. Luck to us!

NFL Picks: Giants +5.5 (-105) Pinnacle

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Bears vs. Vikings
The Vikings are 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS on the season, but they’re riding a two-game losing streak into week 15 NFL betting with their playoff hopes on the line. The Bears are also riding a two-game losing streak with their playoff hopes hanging on a thread. By the stats, the Vikings clearly cut a better figure on the NFL odds board as the home chalk. There's also this conviction in public betting circles the Vikings are sure to bounce back after back-to-back disappointments against NFC West outfits – Seahawks and Cardinals. Still, the Bears are a much better team on the road than they are at home this season, boasting a 4-2 SU record and a 5-1 ATS record, which is the third best in the league as it pertains to away performance. That alone could suggest this game is going to be a lot more competitive than the odds makers are suggesting it will be. It’s worth noting, Teddy Bridgewater has only thrown two TD passes in four games, which is hardly up to snuff. If the Bears can light up, this game could be more interesting, if not surprising.

NFL Picks: Bears +6 (-105) Heritage  

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Texans vs. Colts
The Colts quarterback situation is up in the air. It’s not yet certain how fit Matt Hasselbeck is for the game and hopes of Andrew Luck returning are looking slim at best right now. What’s more, the evisceration they suffered at the hands of the Jaguars last week has left an indelible impression. One wonders whether either quarterback can erase the bitter taste of that defeat. The Texans are also struggling at quarterback and it looks like TJ Yates may get the start if Brian Hoyer doesn’t pass concussion protocol this week. Whichever way you slice this game, it’s a bit of a pickle. As it is, the NFL odds are off the board. So check back later for our official pick.

NFL Picks: Texans +2.5 (-105) Heritage

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Chiefs vs. Ravens
The Ravens are done and done for the season. A tough schedule compounded by injuries has been their undoing. Since Joe Flacco’s injury, the Ravens have been on a concentrated decline. Matt Schaub hasn’t lived up as the veteran backup. Jimmy Clausen was a lamb to slaughter last week in the 33-6 loss to the Seahawks. It remains to be seen which of these backups will get the start, if not new signing Ryan Mallet. Yup, the Ravens turned to the quarterback scrap heap and dug out that little gem. Given all the headaches Jim Harbaugh is having to deal with it would be a minor miracle if the Ravens were remotely competitive in this game. Chiefs have momentum, form and incentive to continue winning. How can you go against them on your NFL picks?

NFL Picks: Chiefs  -6.5 (-110) Bookmaker

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Titans vs. Patriots
The Patriots are trading as the whopping 14-to-15.5-point favorites on the NFL odds board – or thereabouts depending on your sportsbook of choice. It’s a lot of points to lay on any given Sunday. But we’re talking about the Patriots. We’re also talking about the Titans, who are coming off a 30-8 loss to Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets. Enough said. With the NFL betting line ranging, be sure to shop for the best price and NFL line across our various sportsbook partners at the time of your bets. At the moment, the best price we found is at Heritage.

NFL Picks: Patriots -14 (-105) Heritage

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Browns vs. Seahawks
Seahawks all the way. Funny enough, public consensus betting reveals more tickets on the Browns than the Seahawks. The money though is wholeheartedly on the Seahawks. If that’s not a sharp indication of where the best NFL pick is, what is? To put it simply, Manziel is in for a rough day at CenturyLink. Do we need to say more?

NFL Picks: Seahawks -14.5 (-103) Pinnacle

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Packers vs. Raiders
A lot is being made about the Raiders and their win over the Denver Broncos in week 14 NFL betting at Mile High. Impressive as it was, it was against backup Brock Osweiler and it demonstrated the kid's relative inexperience in the NFL. Sure, he’d won three in a row prior to that and beat the Patriots. But at the time he had the advantage of being a relative unknown. With three games and enough tape to look at the Raiders simply capitalised and overtaxed the defense in the process. The Packers must be careful here and not underestimate the Raiders. However, with Mike McCarthy taking back the play calling duties, the Packers are looking much better.

NFL Picks: Packers -3 (-110) Pinnacle

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Bengals vs. 49ers
So AJ McCarron fancies he’s the next Tom Brady does he. That’s probably not going to sit well with Andy Dalton, but the team comes first. On one hand, it’s encouraging the kid has confidence. Why wouldn’t he though? He’ll have the same weapons at his disposal that Andy Dalton played with through the season until his injury last week. One can’t understate the importance of experience and the impact change can have on the overall team mentality, both of which could go against the young upstart. The Niners haven’t exactly done much to set about convincing NFL bettors to back them on their NFL picks. But Blaine Gabbert will be playing for his job and the Niners will be at home. It’s a long shot NFL pick, but the Niners strike an attractive pose as the home underdogs on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Niners +6 (-105) Heritage

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Broncos vs. Steelers
Brock Osweiler is gearing up for his fifth start of the season, looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss to the Raiders at Mile High. The most concerning aspect for Denver fans is not the fact that the Broncos lost but the manner in which they lost. Osweiler wasn’t effective and the defense looked gassed. If there’s a team that could replicate such an outcome it’s the Steelers. Big Ben is firing at all cylinders and his offensive line can give the Denver defense a run for its money. On the defensive side of the ball, they are no slouches either.

NFL Picks: Steelers -6.5 (-105) Bookmaker

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Dolphins vs. Chargers
The Dolphins have been eliminated from the playoff picture while the Chargers never got into the playoff picture if we’re being honest. Two teams going nowhere save to the drawing board – in the case of the Chargers the nearest U-Haul – this game holds very little appeal. For some reason, the Chargers are favored anywhere from -1 to -2 on the NFL odds board, despite their abysmal run of form this season, which includes scoring just three points in three of their last four games. The Dolphins might not have incentive to win anymore but interim coach Dan Campbell is looking to shed the word “interim” from his title. Will the players play for him despite failing to be the answer to Joe Philbin? Will they be up for a game that comes in a short week and features a cross country trek? We won’t know until game day. But we’re going to chance the Dolphins nevertheless on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Dolphins +2.5 (-105) Heritage

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Cardinals vs. Eagles
This is going to be the popcorn game of the week as the Eagles look to extend their winning form to three in a row at the expense of the Cardinals, riding a seven-game winning streak. Both sides come in on good form and some respectable wins. It’s as even as it could get from a weekly standpoint. Obviously, the Cardinals are the better team this season. Hence, they’re the road favorites. But there’s a lot of brotherly love for the Eagles on the NFL betting floor to come through as the home dogs. We’re giving a slight edge to the Cardinals, but it wouldn’t surprise us if Chip Kelly and the Eagles do upset the NFL odds.

NFL Picks: Cardinals -3.5 (+109) Pinnacle[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837205, "sportsbooksIds":[169,1096,93,19,92,238], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

 

Lions vs. Saints
The Saints beat the Bucs last weekend and voila they are back in favor across sports betting platforms. The Saints are just one of those teams that seem to garner a lot of love whether it is deserved or not. That could be a trap. The Lions, meanwhile, stumbled in St. Louis. It marked their second straight loss in as many weeks. Neither side has much to play for on the season, which makes this a less than interesting game in terms of the nerve-biting playoff race as it heats up down the stretch. What it could also mean is a wide open contest as both teams play for the sake of winning alone and pride. We have to go with the better defense here and take the Lions on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Lions +3 (+100) Pinnacle

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