NFL Picks: Game-by-Game ATS Betting Guide for Week 14

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, December 9, 2015 10:26 PM UTC

Wednesday, Dec. 9, 2015 10:26 PM UTC

Hot off the press: week 14 NFL betting lines and odds. So get in on the action as we preview the entire slate and serve up our choice NFL picks against the spread for each and every game.

NFL Week 13 ATS Picks Recap
We had a standout week 13 with our game-by-game ATS picks, finishing with an 11-5 record on Monday Night. As a result, we improve to 98-89-5 on the season through 13 weeks and 192 games covered for your NFL betting thrills.

So, let’s get cracking with our ATS picks for week 14’s entire slate. Here goes…


Vikings vs. Cardinals
The Minnesota Vikings were left wanting on Sunday following a comprehensive rout by the Seahawks. As good as the Vikings have been this season, they’re clearly still a cut below the established heavyweights and proven champions in the game, which must take the shine off of them somewhat for their upcoming clash with the Cardinals, not least a short week to boot. It wasn’t the first time the Vikings were found wanting – a few weeks back they were dealt a setback by the Packers when top spot in the NFC North was on the line. The Cardinals are cut from the same cloth as the Seahawks and Packers, teams that are real contenders in the broad spectrum of the season. Hence, the odds makers roll out a rather hefty spread for this game, ranging in the touchdown area depending on your sportsbook of choice. At first glance, it appears to be too many points to lay with the Cardinals against a Vikings side that is still up there in the playoff hunt. Consider the slew of injuries though to hit the Vikings together with the short week and the road trek to Arizona and it all of sudden looks to be the right NFL betting line.

NFL Picks: Cardinals -7 (-115) Bet365

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Colts vs. Jaguars
Barring any setback, Matt Hasselbeck is apparently going to start this game, which greatly improves the Colts chances in theory seeing as he’s a 3-1 SU starter in relief duty. However, odds makers aren’t totally convinced or they’re playing the trap game. While some sportsbooks are trading this game on a PK Line, others have the hosts as the slight favorites. That’s partly down to the elevated play of Blake Bortles and company. But still it’s as if bookies want the public to take the Colts here. Of course, Hasselbeck has proven his worth and that might be the right NFL pick. Yet, something tells us to give the Colts a fade and take the Jags.

NFL Picks: Jaguars -1 (-105) Heritage

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Steelers vs. Bengals
The Steelers and Bengals set up a compelling clash in week 14 when they collide in Cincy. The Steelers are coming off a 45-10 rout of the Colts while the Bengals beat up on the hapless Browns 37-3. The Bengals appear to have a firm grip on the AFC North title race so they’ll be looking to clinch home-field advantage now that the Patriots have let up in the Conference. The Steelers need to continue to win out if they hope to control their playoff wildcard bid. As it is, there doesn’t really appear to be any clear edge on paper; that is, according to this season’s accounts. Past seasons have seen the Steelers traipse into town and win four of the last five. So this is going to be more of an emotional NFL pick for most NFL bettors we’d wager. Our emotional compass has us leaning towards the Steelers as the road underdogs.

NFL Picks: Steelers +3 (-105) Westgate

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Redskins vs. Bears
Both the Redskins and Bears are coming off losses in week 13 all while installed as home  chalks. The Bears did a hack job of it against the Niners last week while the Redskins lost a heart breaker to the Cowboys on MNF. NFL betting lines have the Bears trading as the field goal favorites but they are 1-5 SU at home with a 2-4 ATS mark underscored by a 7-point losing margin and a negative 5.6-point differential against the spread. Most damning, perhaps, is the fact that they are 0-1 ATS as home favorites with a 6-point losing margin and a negative 12-point differential against the spread. Then again, is it more damning that they’ve only been home favorites once this season? The Redskins are 0-5 SU on the road, which is probably the statistic most NFL bettors will look at, along with the 1-4 ATS mark that goes with it and includes a whopping 15.2-point losing margin and a negative 7.5-point differential against the spread. Heck, can anybody make heads or tails of this one? Something is going to have to give, obviously.

NFL Picks: Bears -3 (-120) Bovada

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Lions vs. Rams
The Lions and Rams collide on Sunday for a game that is technically meaningless in the broad spectrum of the season. Lions saw a three-game winning streak snapped on a Hail Mary for the ages on Thursday, while the Rams extended their poor run of form to five straight defeats in an apathetic 27-3 loss to the Cardinals. As a result of week 13, the Rams emerge as the slight favorites at home, trading on a PK-to-2-point spread with the Rams to the good at most sportsbooks. Makes sense, right? Hardly. If there’s one thing to separate these two 4-8 SU teams is the manner in which they’ve conducted their schedule over the last few weeks. The Lions have shown more spunk in the face of certain elimination from the postseason than the Rams. Plus, Case Keenum now is entrusted to guide the one-dimensional Rams offense. Yikes.

NFL Picks: Lions +2.5 (-105) Heritage

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49ers vs. Browns
In the least interesting game of the season, two bad teams, who are going absolutely nowhere save back to the drawing board, collide in Cleveland. On the bright side, Johnny Manziel gets the start, which probably plays into their sudden favorable outlook on the NFL odds board. That and the fact that the Niners were lucky to get the win in Chicago last week. Normally, we wouldn’t trust our money with either of these teams. Put against each other so, it’s a process of elimination by determining which is worse. In this case, the freefalling Browns come off so. Hence, we’re going with the Niners but feeling no joy in it.

NFL Picks: Niners +2 (-106) Pinnacle

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Bills vs. Eagles
The dog in this game is hopping like a bunny. One minute the Bills are the underdogs. The next it’s the Eagles. That’s enough to give anybody pause and it’s sure to continue hopping until closing doors. Advanced lines had the Bills favored by 1-point ahead of week 13. Although the Bills underscored their favorable nod with a convincing 30-21 win over the Texans at home, the Eagles pulled off the unimaginable upset over New England. Nobody was more surprised than Chip Kelly and the Eagles, we’d wager. In any event, odds makers reacted by making the Eagles the home faves in early NFL betting markets, trading at -2.5 points. Now, the Bills emerge as the 1 to 1.5-point road faves. Consensus betting reveals a distinct lean towards the Bills with 54.92% of the tickets coming down the wire. In terms of actual money, the split is almost even with the Bills raking in 52% and the Eagles 48%. For our money, we’re fading the public and taking the Eagles as the home underdogs, even though we’re quite aware this could be a let-down spot after a big win.

NFL Picks: Eagles +1.5 (-105) Bookmaker

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Chargers vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs are riding the momentum of a six-game winning streak, which includes covers in each and every game. Granted all those spreads were no higher than 4.5 at closing doors. This is a rather hefty double barrel spread, which would have us at the best of times extremely nervous to back on our NFL picks. However, no team has thrown in the towel quite like the Chargers have. The 17-3 loss to the Denver Broncos in week 13 spoke volumes and highlighted just how ineffective the Chargers are this season. In the last three losing efforts, the Chargers have failed to cover the spread by an average of 13.3-points or thereabouts.

NFL Picks: Chiefs -10 (-105) The Greek

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Falcons vs. Panthers
The Panthers got a bit of a rude awakening in New Orleans as they were forced to come from behind and save their undefeated record on the season in nerve-wracking fashion. That hasn’t had much of an impact though on the Panthers as the hefty home favorites in their upcoming divisional tilt, second in as many weeks, with the Falcons. That’s down to the fact that the Falcons are simply confounding NFL bettors ever since taking a nosedive in week 6. They are riding a five-game losing streak into this clash and haven’t covered a game in seven consecutive attempts. We’re with the public bettors on this game and taking the Panthers on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Panthers -7.5 (-100) Pinnacle

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Saints vs. Buccaneers
The Bucs are matched as the home favorites over the Saints for the first time in eight years, marking a noteworthy occasion to spot on your NFL picks. The Bucs are riding the momentum of good form over the last month and coming off a victory over the Atlanta Falcons in week 13 to sweep the series. Now, the Bucs will attempt to do the same by sweeping the Saints at home, backing up their 26-19 upset at the Superdome in week 2. For the Saints, this is going to be a tough task. Last week, they threw the kitchen sink at Cam Newton and the Panther only to come out on the losing side of a 41-38 shootout.

NFL Picks: Bucs -3.5 (-110) 5Dimes

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Titans vs. Jets
The Titans look to string together their first winning streak when they take on the NY Jets, who are lighting up just at the right moment when the season is hurtling towards the finish line. At first glance, the NFL betting line on this game looks rather steep with the Jets trading as the 7.5-point home chalk. It’s precisely the reason why the public appears to be heavy on the Titans with 56.96 % of the tickets record on this game backing the Titans according to SBR consensus reports. Interestingly, the actual money is piled on top of the Jets with their 43.04% of tickets accounting for 60.77% of the money. This has the look of sharp money.

NFL Picks: Jets -7 (+105) Heritage

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Seahawks vs. Ravens
With the Seahawks rounding out into form, there’s no doubt they will emerge as the significant road faves in this game. Last week as the nominal, laughable, 2.5-point road favorites they crushed the Vikings 38-7. That was a good team. Imagine what they’ll do to a bad team decimated by injuries like the Ravens are.

NFL Picks: Seattle -4.5 (-110) Bet365

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Raiders vs. Broncos
The Broncos are riding the momentum of a three-game winning streak behind Brock Osweiler and the elevated play of their defense. The Raiders, meanwhile, have had a dose of reality dealt in recent weeks, winning just one of their last five games. It’s no surprise, therefore, that the Broncos are runaway favorites at home to the Raiders, trading anywhere between 7 and 8.5-points to the good, depending on your choice sports betting shop. Normally, we’d consider the Raiders as our NFL pick when the spread is hovering on the touchdown range. They are 5-7 ATS this season with a 2.5-point losing margin and a 0.5-point differential against the spread. What’s more, they only lost 16-10 to the Broncos earlier this season. And they are 2-1 ATS as away underdogs with a plus 8-point differential. However, none of those positive results on the road came against a side as solid as the Broncos are right now.

NFL Picks: Broncos -7.0 (-105) Heritage

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Cowboys vs. Packers
The Packers saved their season with a Hail Mary while the Cowboys saved theirs with a last gasp win over the Redskins in MNF. Despite the similar outcomes in week 13, the Packers are distinctive home favorites for obvious reasons. Matt Cassel finally got a win as a Colts starter, but it’s hardly anything to get charged about and not when his next assignment involves taking on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Packers should be buoyed by that spectacular win in Detroit and look to capitalise on a winnable game in order to keep their divisional title bid alive.

NFL Picks: Packers -7 (-105) Heritage

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Patriots vs. Texans
The stock in New England Patriots appears to be on the decline behind a two-game losing streak. The Patriots’ offense is banged up and Tom Brady is struggling with the options he’s left to work with at the moment. The upshot of which is the NFL betting line on this game is sliding in favor of the Texans, who are down from +3.5 to +3 NFL odds at home in midweek NFL betting markets. Three in a row is just unheard of where the Patriots are concerned, not when Tom Brady is calling the shots.

NFL Picks: Patriots -3 (-110) bet365

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Giants vs. Dolphins
It’s the same story over and over with the Giants as they blow yet another lead again (fifth time it’s happened this season) to lose and shoot their playoff aspirations in the foot. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are coming off a narrow 15-13 win over the Ravens. Given the contrasting fortunes of both these teams in week 13, odds makers opened with the Dolphins either favored at home or on a pick’em. Early NFL betting pounding the Giants has seen this line swell in favor of the Giants on the road, which takes the value away from them altogether. It’s also worth noting that although the Dolphins have raked in fewer bets those they have account for a bigger share of the money risked on this game. Looks like the sharp NFL pick might be to take the Dolphins as the home dogs.

NFL Picks: Dolphins +1.5 (-110)  The Greek

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