NFL Picks: Game-by-Game ATS Betting Guide for Week 12

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, November 25, 2015 11:06 PM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 25, 2015 11:06 PM GMT

Join us as we sift through week 12 NFL betting odds for each and every game and serve up NFL betting analysis and NFL picks for your betting thrills.

Week 11 Recap ATS
Home teams went 9-5 SU in week 11 but just 6-6-2 against the spread. Favorites went 9-5 SU as well, but just 5-7-2 against the spread.

For our ATS picks, we went 7-5-2 in week 11, which has us improving to 80-75-5 on the season.

 

Record Over the Last 4 Weeks:

Week 8: 5-9-0
Week 9: 7-7-0
Week 10: 6-6-1
Week 11: 7-5-2
Overall Record For 11 Weeks: 80-75-5

 

Week 12 ATS Predictions and Picks for All 16 Games

Bills vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs are on a roll right now and with a pivotal game at Arrowhead against potential playoff rivals they are sure to be fired up. Most recently, they thumped the Chargers 33-3 on the road. We expect the Bills to put up more of fight than the Chargers did, especially seeing how well they held up against the Patriots. Problem is there’s a small chance E.J. Manuel is going to start as Tyrod Taylor suffered an injury on MNF. If Tyrod Taylor starts, we might be tempted to take the points with the Bills. If it’s E.J. Manuel, we’re going with the Chiefs.

NFL Picks: Chiefs -5.5 (-110) Westgate

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Dolphins vs. Jets
The Dolphins and Jets collide for the second time this season. In week 4, the Jets handed the Dolphins a 27-14 loss that prompted the firing of Joe Philbin. How have the Dolphins done since then? They’ve gone 3-3 SU and ATS. Last week they looked terrible against the Dallas Cowboys in a home loss. The Jets, meanwhile, are coming off a loss to the Texans, all while installed as the road chalk. In more ways than one, this game is a tossup. That said we do look the Jets as the field-goal faves at home.

NFL Picks: Jets -3.5 (+100) BetOnline

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Vikings vs. Falcons
The Falcons look to have lost the plot in recent weeks. They have just one win in their last five games and they are 0-6 ATS in their last six. Somehow, odds makers thought rolling out a field-goal line or thereabouts would go down well with the public. Tale told, the Falcons have been bet down as early money poured in towards the Vikings. The Vikings enjoyed a rude awakening last week when the Packers rolled into town to snap their five-game winning streak all while the Vikings were trading as the nominal home chalk. It was to be expected. Here the Vikings have an opportunity to capitalise on a team that is still visibly struggling with its identity.

NFL Picks: Vikings +2 (-110) Heritage

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Saints vs. Texans
The Texans defense has really stepped it up in the last couple of weeks. Since the bye week, they are riding a two-game winning streak and in the mix for the AFC South title. The Saints, meanwhile, are propping up the NFC South and in a whole slew of trouble on both sides of the ball. Drew Brees simply can’t do it all by himself and he’s sure to have fits against a Texans’ defense that is finally live up to its hard knocks persona.

NFL Picks: Texans -3 (105) bet365

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Giants vs. Redskins
The Giants and Redskins reprise hostilities in week 12 NFL betting all while top spot in the division hangs in the balance. The Giants are coming off a bye week and are well-rested for this game. The Redskins are probably still reeling from the 44-16 beat down in Charlotte. You like that Kirky? Redskins have only lost one of their five home games, which should send them into this pivotal divisional clash with a measure of optimism. But NFL odds makers aren’t buying what they are selling and we agree.

NFL Picks: Giants -3 (+100) bet365

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Raiders vs. Titans
Both the Raiders and Titans are headed in the same direction this season: destination nowhere. The Raiders are riding a three-game losing streak and the Titans are riding a two-game losing streak. Both will be eager to get back into the win column and there’s good reason to back either on your NFL picks, namely the promise at quarterback in each camp. It could go either way, but we’re taking the home underdogs. Raiders are 0-2 ATS as away favorites this season with a 3.5-point losing margin and a negative 6-point differential against the spread.

NFL Picks: Titans +2 (-110) Bovada

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Chargers vs. Jaguars
After the abysmal performance in week 11 NFL betting at home to the Chiefs any money on the Chargers from here on is a risk. So horrific and pathetic was the performance that the Chargers might as well pack in the season. Jaguars are enjoying a mini-winning streak, looking to extend it to three in a row. Certainly, if the Chargers don’t get up for this one this could be an easier win than the odds makers are predicting.

NFL Picks: Jaguars -3.5 (-115) Bookmaker

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Rams vs. Bengals
The quarterback situation in St. Louis is up in the air, which makes backing the Rams on our NFL picks a bit of a risky bet. The Bengals have come down to earth in recent weeks behind a two-game losing streak. They’ll be desperate to get back into the win column at the expense of the Rams and, in all likelihood, they’ll come through for their backers. Question is whether they’ll cover the hefty spread?

NFL Picks: Bengals -8 (-105) Pinnacle

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Buccaneers vs. Colts
The Colts are 3-0 SU behind Matt Hasselbeck, looking to improve to 4-0 SU behind the 40-year-old quarterback as the starter this season. The Bucs are coming off an impressive win over the Eagles in week 11, with Jameis Winston throwing 5 TDs. This positive run of form sets up an intriguing clash, which could go either way. The Colts should win at home, but the Bucs could mastermind the upset. As such, we’re hedging our NFL picks with the Bucs as the road underdogs to cover.

NFL Picks: Buccaneers +3 (+106) Pinnacle

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Cardinals vs. 49ers
Of all the games on the NFL schedule in week 12, consensus betting on the clash between the Cardinals and Niners is unanimous. Blaine Gabbert hasn’t solved the Niners’ offensive issues and the Niners are headed towards their worst season in recent memory. This could get just as ugly as the earlier meeting between these two outfits when Colin Kaepernick was calling the shots.

NFL Picks: Cardinals -10 (-110) bet365

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Steelers vs. Seahawks
The Steelers take on the Seahawks in a pivotal clash towards each team’s playoff hopes. Seahawks are coming off a win over the Niners and enter this game as the home favorites at 3.5-points or 4-points depending on your sportsbook of choice. As far as the Seahawks go at CenturyLink, that’s quite a low spread. The Steelers are enjoying a better season and when you consider the trials and tribulations they’ve had to deal with at quarterback the 6-4 SU record is even more impressive. The Steelers are 6-3-1 ATS this season with a 4.5-point winning margin and a plus 5.2-point differential against the spread. We’re taking the points with the Steelers.

NFL Picks: Steelers +4 (-110) The Greek

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Patriots vs. Broncos
The Patriots enter this game as the road favorites to win and cover across all sports betting platforms, which is a fitting NFL betting outlook seeing as they’ll be facing Brock Osweiler rather than Peyton Manning. Of course, the Denver defense is nothing to sniff at and could give Tom Brady a run for his money. Since the NFL betting spread on this game came down from an opening 5.5-points to 3-points (or less) though, we’re liking the Patriots to get the job done and cover.

NFL Picks: Patriots -2.5 (-115) 5Dimes

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Ravens vs. Browns
With their seasons going tits up and the quarterback situation taking a turn for the worse in both camps, this game holds very little appeal on our NFL picks. The NFL really should consider flexing MNF. Joe Flacco is out for the season, giving way to the Matt Schaub era in Baltimore. We’ve got nothing to go on here. Johnny Manziel is up to his usual tricks that got him a nice scolding and benching to boot. Josh McCown is back as the starter. All that amounts to the Browns favored by a field goal. Whatever, we’re taking the Browns but feeling no joy.

NFL Picks: Browns -3 

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Eagles vs. Lions
Chip Kelly’s Eagles are struggling something huge this season, wholly inconsistent and off colour they slipped to their second straight defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in week 11 NFL betting, all while installed as the significant home chalk, closing anywhere from 6.5 to 7-points at various sportsbooks. As it is, they are down to third in the NFC East with a 4-6 SU and ATS mark, highlighted by a negative 3.2-point differential against the spread through ten games. Those stats are hardly a ringing endorsement of the Chip Kelly experiment this season that has been the subject of a lot of talk. It’s obvious the bonhomie with the Eagles is waning thin.

After opening as the marginal road faves at -1.5-points or thereabouts at the close of Sunday’s round of NFL betting, the Eagles were promptly bet out of favor. Poor form and quarterback question marks have a lot to do with that changing NFL betting outlook. Granted the Lions are nothing to get charged about this season, but they are riding a two-game winning streak which includes a win over the Packers on the roads. That’s nothing to sniff at. Evidently, they have perked up behind this run of form. They might only be 3-7 SU and ATS on the season, highlighted by an 8.9-point margin of defeat and a negative 5.5-point differential against the spread on average. But they finally seem to be getting it right and look like the team they should have been at the start of the season.

NFL Picks: Lions -2.5 (-110) BetOnline

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Panthers vs. Cowboys
The Panthers opened as the underdogs in Westgate’s advanced serving last week, but despite winning at the weekend in convincing fashion over the Redskins and extending their winning form to 10- SU, they reopened as the bigger underdogs against the spread. Makes total sense right? Clearly, bookies put their stock in Tony Romo’s winning performance over the Dolphins in his first game back. Needless to say, betting has brought this line down to a 1.5-point spread at most sportsbooks while some are sporting a pick’em. Tony Romo could very well do the trick, but we’re not going to bet against the undefeated Panthers.

NFL Picks: Panthers +1.5 (-105) BetOnline

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Bears vs. Packers
The Packers are back into the win column and sat atop the NFC North. This is a game that means a whole lot to the Packers as they’ll be retiring Brett Favre’s number and inducting him into their Hall of Fame. John Fox and the Bears may fancy spoiling the party, but it’s a tall order at Lambeau Field.

NFL Picks: Packers -7.5 (-110) Bookmaker

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