NFL Picks: Finding Early Value on the Week 7 Betting Odds Board

Kevin Stott

Monday, October 19, 2015 4:19 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 19, 2015 4:19 PM UTC

The opening odds for NFL Week 7 have now been released in a couple of big-name books Pinnacle & the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.  Let’s get busy, Time is ticking.

Buffalo Bills (-4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS) face the Buffalo Bills (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) in this AFC inter-divisional matchup from Wembley Stadium in London, England, the second game of the 2015/16 NFL Regular Season to be played Across The Pond in the now somewhat chilly United Kingdom. The last time these two teams met was in 2013 where the visiting Bills won and covered as 4-point favorites in Jacksonville, 27-20. The Jaguars—who lost 31-20 to the Texans in Jacksonville on Sunday—and QB Blake Bortles had scored the 3rd-lowest number of points in the AFC (119)—behind only the Dolphins (103)—who have played one less game (5)—and Titans (112). The Bills and QB Tyrod Taylor (Check status) are 4-1 ATS the L5 against the Jaguars and this seems like a pretty good spot on the schedule for Buffalo and it will be in a real foul mood after losing at Home at Ralph Wilson Stadium on Sunday to the upstart Cincinnati Bengals, 34-21. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened this one up at Buffalo -7½ in its NFL Games of the Year and although there is no line yet (Bills QB Thomas status), backing a mad Buffalo side and laying the jolly old lumber against maybe the worst team in the league is advised even if EJ Manuel gets the start.
NFL Pick: Bills -4 (-110) at BetOnline


Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins (-5)
The Advanced Line here was (Dolphins minus) 1½ at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook here in Las Vegas, so the Dolphins -5 hanging at Pinnacle now on Sunday night seems value-laden as it seems Houston is still seems like a better team than Miami, who still hold some strange allure with and the General Public. This team is the worst in its division folks. Buy some darn Smelling Salts or something. The Texans (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS) beat the Jaguars in Jacksonville on Sunday, 31-20, so here in Miami Gardens and Sun Life Stadium facing the host Miami Dolphins (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS)—who blasted the Titans, 38-10 in Nashville on Sunday—QB Ryan Tannehill and new Head Coach Dan Campbell (1-0 ATS). The last time these two AFC clubs met, the Texans won and covered ATS, 30-10 as big double-digit favorites (-14) in Week 1 at NRG Stadium in Houston, while the last time these two met here in South Florida (2011), Houston won and covered, 23-13 as 3-point chalks. The Texans are 3-0 ATS L3 overall vs. Miami and 3-0 ATS L3 here at Sun Life Stadium. The Dolphins had just 14 3rd-Down Conversions in their first 4 games and have maybe the nastiest patch of scheduling on the horizon in the NFL on the horizon. Duck and cover, Fishies. Houston may win this one outright and waiting for a nice Money Line price with the Texans and RB Arian Foster is recommended on top of this generous Texans +5 hanging up right now. Some value with your comedy?
NFL Pick: Texans +5 at Pinnacle


Minnesota Vikings -2 vs. Detroit Lions (44½)
The Detroit Lions (1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS) and a QB Matthew Stafford (17-24-1 ATS at Home) welcome the Minnesota Vikings (3-2 SU,4-1 ATS) to Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday afternoon for this Week 7 NFC North affair which looked a lot better on the schedule this Summer. Last year when these two Upper Midwestern rivals met, the Vikings lost outright in Minneapolis to Detroit as 1-point favorites, 17-3, while in this game in Motown, the Lions won again, 16-14, but didn’t cover, laying 8 points. Heading into Week 6 play this weekend, Detroit was the only winless team in NFL and although it squeaked by the Bears in OT to get that first Win, the Lions and Head Coach Jim Caldwell (8-10 ATS) and his staff still aren’t looking so good right about now, granted this team did lose some real talent in the Offseason (NT Ndamukong Suh—Dolphins, DT Nick Fairley—Rams, DL CJ Mosley—Dolphins). The Vikings are a plumlike 7-2 ATS the L9 overall in this series and Minnesota is 3-1 ATS the L4 here in Detroit. This line would’ve been around Detroit -3 if the Lions were what we all thought they were or maybe a year ago now. And besides the visiting Vikings, the Under (44½, Pinnacle) seems to be a good pick here in a league of endless Overs. Why? Vikings Unders are 5-0 ATS heading in (23, 42, 45, 43 and 26 points) and this will be a game host Detroit gets up for, especially after already losing to Minnesota, 26-16 in Minneapolis back in Week 2, so the pace should be pretty slow in the 1st Half and Minnesota games have been really sluggish so far. Also, that low 16-14 scoreline in this game last season.
NFL Picks: Vikings -2 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), Under 44½ at Pinnacle


Baltimore Ravens vs. Arizona Cardinals (-7)
The Advanced Line was 7 and the opener here is also 7 but the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook made Arizona 4-point chalks in its renowned NFL Games of the Year, out in the late Spring, so you can see fading perceptions of Baltimore and increased stock rising for Arizona. here, the upstart Cardinals (4-2 SU, 4-2) and QB Carson Palmer will be glad to be Home after a 2-game Road Trip (Detroit, Pittsburgh), but angry after losing to the Steelers and third-string QB Landry Jones in Pittsburgh on Sunday. And the slumping and certainly now Road-weary Baltimore Ravens (1-5 SU, 0-5-1 ATS)—who saw their Super Bowl 50 odds rise from (a high of) 80/1 last week to their 250/1 (888sport) now—and QB Joe Flacco (36-31-3 on Road) will have to deal with Arizona, who have scored the most points in NFL (203), although the Cardinals had played some pretty marginal teams (Saints, Bears, 49ers, Rams, Lions) before Pittsburgh on Sunday. The last time these two played, the Cardinals lost 30-27 at Baltimore but covered as 10½-point favorites in 2011 while the last time these two met here in the Valley of the Sun—way back in 2003 at Sun Devil Stadium, the home of Arizona State University—the Ravens were 26-18 victors. Although Baltimore is 4-1 SU all-time in this infrequent series (108 PF-91 PA) between one team (the Cardinals) who used to be somebody else (St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cardinals) and another named after an Edgar Allen Poe poem (“The Raven”), the Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in those lone 5 meetings against the Ravens and Head Coach Bruce Arians (25-13-1 ATS) and his consistent and now balanced squad have been one of the most profitable teams for NFL bettors over the past couple of seasons and with guys like WRs Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd, it’s no wonder this team is finally starting to make some noise. And coming off a Loss, expect Arizona to be on its best behavior, especially knowing that NFC West rival Seattle is sitting on a 2-4 record and has to face the 49ers (2-4) in San Francisco on Thursday Night Football (CBS, 8:25 p.m. PDT/5:25 p.m. PDT) and that a 5-2 record would be a nice start to not losing the division like the Cardinals did last season.
NFL Pick: Cardinals -7 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

NFL WEEK 7 EARLY WEEK VALUE PICKS: Bills - over Jaguars; Texans +5 over Dolphins; Vikings-Lions Under 44½ (Pinnacle); Vikings -2 over Lions; Cardinals -7 over Ravens (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)


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