NFL Picks: Finding Early Value on the Week 6 Betting Board

Kevin Stott

Monday, October 12, 2015 1:26 PM GMT

Monday, Oct. 12, 2015 1:26 PM GMT

Much has been revealed since the start of the 2015 NFL Season, now is the time time to try to separate the contenders from the pretenders as Conference & Divisional races shape up in Week 6.

Denver Broncos (-5½) vs. Cleveland Browns
QB Peyton Manning (74-58-5 ATS on Road) and the Denver Broncos (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) head to FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland on Sunday for this Week 6 AFC inter-divisional tilt with the host Cleveland Browns (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) in what will be a much more important game for Head Coach Mike Pettine and the Browns, now sitting at 2-3 after upsetting the Ravens, 33-30 in OT in Baltimore on Sunday, and starting to believe under QB Josh McCown. The last meeting between these two was in 2012 in Denver where the Broncos won and covered as 10-point favorites, 34-12, while the last meeting here in Cleveland, Denver also won and (barely) covered, this time as 3-point favorites, 34-30 in 2008. The Broncos are 5-1 ATS the L6 against the Browns and Denver (+5 TO margin) has one of the best and most athletic D’s in the league right now (NFL-leading 22 sacks, #1 Total Yards, #2 Points Allowed, 15.8 ppg).
NFL Pick: Under 45½ (Pinnacle)

 

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills PK
 Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals (5-0 SU, 4-0-1 ATS) head to Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo to face the QB Tyrod Taylor and the Buffalo Bills (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) on Sunday afternoon in this Week 6 AFC inter-divisional showdown which could be a little more important for the Bills and new Head Coach Rex Ryan. The last time these two met here in Buffalo was in 2013 where the Bengals won outright, 27-24 as 5½-point chalks. Despite that result in the last meeting in this series, the Bills are 10-2 ATS the L12 against Cincinnati and 6-2 the L8 against the Bengals here at Home at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Bills have had some continual Injury issues on Offense (RB LeSean McCoy, Out, WR Sammy Watkins, Inactive on Sunday vs. Titans). This Point Spread (Advanced Line) was (Buffalo minus) 1½ a couple of days ago, so you can see what the perceptions of the Bills narrow (14-13) win at Tennessee combined with the Bengals come-from-behind rally to top the Seahawks in OT did to the number. The site, the situation and the spot on the schedule all favor the Bills, while the Injuries and Rosters favor the Bengals.QB Andy Dalton (19-13-4 ATS on Road) and Cincinnati an impressive 12-6-2 ATS as Road Underdogs over the last 3+ seasons, and with McCoy out and Watkins a question mark for Buffalo (+4 TO Margin), Cincinnati (+3) will head in with more healthy weapons on Offense (Seifert, Green, Sanu, Jones, Bernard, Hill) and looks like it is the way to go here in Week 6.
NFL Pick: Bengals PK (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

 

Carolina Panthers vs.Seattle Seahawks (-7)
Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) welcome Cam Newton (18-15 ATS on Road) and the Carolina Panthers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) to CenturyLink Field in Seattle on Sunday afternoon in a great NFC matchup between two teams who have ended up playing each other an awful lot these last several years. One potential problem for Seattle here (again) could be the health and availability of RB Marshawn Lynch (Hamstring), who missed the Seahawks game against the Bengals on Sunday, and who needs to return to the fold ASAP. His replacement, Rookie (Central Michigan University) Thomas Rawls (23 rushes, 169 yards, TD vs. Bengals on Sunday) has been outstanding, but with SS Kam Chancellor holding out to start the season, an OL made up of three former collegiate DL and QB Russell Wilson (8-12 ATS on Road) scrambling for his life, getting Lynch back now is essential to start to create some flow. For Seattle to make a solid run to another NFC Championship Game and maybe a third straight Super Bowl appearance this season, the mercurial Lynch needs to return to the team healthy and start contributing. Duh. The last time these two sides met was in the second round of the NFC Playoffs last season here in the Emerald City last season where the Seahawks won and eliminated the Panthers, 31-17, narrowly covering as big, double-digit 13½-point chalks. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS the L5 vs. Carolina and with Head Coach Ron Rivera (39-31-1 ATS), Carolina is exactly the type of team that can beat the Seahawks in the Emerald City. The Panthers will be losing three Body Clock Hours traveling westward from EDT to PDT, but Carolina will have the marked advantage of coming off a Bye Week and having a whopping 13 Days of Rest and all of that precious Time to scheme for Seattle and this particular game. And the Cats are still undefeated. But this could end up being a low-scoring affair, so getting that 7—the scarce 7½’s that were out last week have all been scooped up—after the Seahawks loss on Sunday seems crucial. The Panthers can definitely pull off the upset here, and with Seattle already having three Losses now (Rams, Packers, Bengals), the safe NFL pick seems to be taking the feisty and unbeaten visitors from Carolina and the lumber in the Pacific Northwest.
NFL Pick: Panthers +7 (Pinnacle)

 

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-3½)
The Philadelphia Eagles (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) welcome the New York Giants (3-2 SU; 3-2 ATS) to Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia to face Sam Bradford (11-14 ATS at Home) and the disappointing Eagles in this Week 6 Monday Night Football game from the City of Brotherly Love. The Eagles shut out the Giants, 27-0 in this meeting last season in Philadelphia—also in Week 6—while Philadelphia also won and covered in Week 17 in East Rutherford, 34-26 in a Pick (‘Em) situation. The Eagles are 3-1 ATS in the L4 meetings in this series against New York NFC and QB Eli Manning (51-40-2 on Road), but the G-Men are playing much better Defense now and are now feeling pretty good about themselves after stifling the Bills in Buffalo in Week 4. The Giants can win this game and both Bradford and RB DeMarco Murray (29 rushes, 47 yards, TD, 1.6 ypc) have been somewhat disappointing. Philadelphia Head Coach Chip Kelly (19-19 ATS) may be in some Hot Water soon if the Eagles don’t start winning, and the Week 4 Loss at Washington revealed much about this team, no disrespect to the Redskins. And to think Philadelphia was probably the most hyped-up team in the Preseason. The Eagles did look better on Sunday, bashing the lowly Saints in Philadelphia (39-14), while the Giants rallied to edge the 49ers at MetLife on Sunday Night Football, so the 3 that was out there in the Advanced Line last week has moved—and off the Key Number of 3—in favor of Philly (-3½) being better than we all thought. Here we go again. The Giants and electric WR Odell Beckham Jr. can definitely win this one, so if you have the stones to back them on the Money Line, this seems like the ideal spot.
NFL Pick: Giants +3½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

NFL WEEK 6 EARLY WEEK VALUE PICKS: Broncos-Browns Total Under 45½; Panthers +7 over Seahawks (Pinnacle); Bengals PK over Bills; Giants +3½ over Eagles (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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