NFL Picks: Finding Best Value on the Early Week 8 Betting Board

Kevin Stott

Monday, October 26, 2015 11:58 AM GMT

It’s Week 8 of the NFL Season and the Point Spreads & Totals for most of the week’s 14 games are now out, so let’s take a look at games where the early numbers give some small edge.

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots -7½, 51 (Pinnacle)
The Advanced Line here was (Patriots minus) -10½ while the Patriots opened 9½-point favorites in the NFL Games of the Year number out this Summer at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook in Las Vegas, so you can see what the Dolphins big win over the lowly Houston Texans in Miami Gardens did on Sunday in the mind of Oddsmakers for this primetime AFC East meeting from Foxboro Stadium at Gillette Stadium between New England (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) and QB Tom Brady (70-48-5 ATS at Home) and the Miami Dolphins (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) on Thursday Night Football. When these two played last season, the Patriots won and covered as 9-point chalks in this game at Home, 41-13, while in Week 1 in Miami last year, the Dolphins upset New England, 33-20 as 3-point underdogs. The Trends here see the Patriots 3-0 ATS the L3 here in Foxboro (41-13, 27-17, 28-0) and with New England Head Coach Bill Belichick knowing the importance of Home-field advantage in the Postseason, expect a double-digit win and another big performance from the hosts and the NFL’s most reliable player, Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski (career-high 11 Receptions, 108 yards, TD) on Thursday evening.
NFL Pick: Patriots -7½ (Pinnacle)

 

New York Jets PK, 44 (Pinnacle) vs. Oakland Raiders
The New York Jets (4-2 SU; 5-1 ATS) head out west to the O.co Coliseum in Oakland next Sunday to face the host Raiders (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) in an important inter-divisional AFC battle from the Golden State. Oakland should have a small advantage here with the Jets having to travel 3 Time Zones (EDT to PDT) westward and play the game at a physical kickoff time of 4:05 (EST). When these two last met last season, the Raiders lost 19-14 but covered as 6½-point underdogs in Week 1 in at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey while in the last meeting here in Oaktown between the two, Oakland rolled to a 34-24 victory in 2011, winning outright as 3-point underdogs and winning money again for their Black and Silver betting backers. The Raiders are 3-1-1 ATS the L5 at Home here in Oakland vs. the Jets but these ain’t those Jets, Bubba. The Advanced Line was (Jets minus) -3 so you can see what the Oddsmakers thought of Oakland’s win over San Diego as well as what the Jets-Patriots result earlier in the day. New York is a better team and will be mad coming off the New England Loss. This one should be fun.
NFL Pick: Jets PK (Pinnacle)

 

Seattle Seahawks -5½, 40½ (Pinnacle) vs. Dallas Cowboys
The slumping and injured Dallas Cowboys (2-5 SU, 1-5 ATS) welcome the defending NFC champion and slumping Seattle Seahawks (3-4 SU, 2-4-1 ATS) to AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on Sunday afternoon for this Week 8 inter-divisional showdown from Big D. The last time QB Russell Wilson and the Seahawks played Dallas, the Cowboys and QB Tony Romo won and upset the Seahawks last season, 30-23 in Seattle as 10-point underdogs. The Cowboys may be going with third-stringer Matt Cassel (17/27, 227 yards TD) at QB, who started for the Cowboys at the New York Giants in their Week 7, 27-20 Loss on Sunday afternoon. Dallas is 6-2 ATS the L8 vs. Seattle overall and the Cowboys are 4-1 ATS the L5 at Home here in Arlington against the Seahawks. Dallas will still be without Romo (Collarbone, Injured-Reserve List) but word is that Dallas may finally be getting WR Dez Bryant (Foot) back and they’ll need him for the slugfest. After losing to the Giants, this team can ill afford to make any more mistakes and a 2-6 SU record would be horrific, even in the paltry NFC East where even Bobby Jindal may have a chance. The Seahawks and RB Marshawn Lynch were 8½-point favorites in the NFL Games of the Year number out this Summer and the Advanced Line had Seattle as 5½-point favorites, although the Opener at the SuperBook tonight (Sunday) is 6. Imagine Matt Cassel going up against Seattle’s ferocious and driven Legion of Doom secondary...
NFL Pick: Seahawks -5½ (Pinnacle)

 

Green Bay Packers -2½, 46 (Pinnacle) vs. Denver Broncos
QB Aaron Rodgers (32-27 ATS on Road) and the Green Bay Packers (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS; Open Date) and QB Peyton Manning (73-69-2 ATS at Home) and the Denver Broncos (6-0 SU, 4-1-1 ATS; Open Date) will both come into this Week 8 primetime showdown at Sports Authority Field in Denver on Sunday night well-rested, coming off their Bye weeks. The last time these two elite NFL teams met in 2011 at Lambeau Field, Green Bay romped to a 49-23 win, covering as healthy 12½-point favorites while the last time these two played in the Rocky Mountains, the Packers also won and covered ATS, 19-13 as 3-point underdogs in Denver in 2007. The Packers are 3-0 ATS the L3 against the Broncos, but with Denver’s Defense, the 5,280-feet Altitude and the Travel, this is is hard game to make a case for the Cheeseheads in but the measly 1-Hour Body Clock difference (CDT to MDT) ain’t no thang but a chicken wang. Green Bay sees the Patriots strutting their stuff in the AFC and needs to hold serve but like others may have some trouble playing in that Altitude for four quarters. Still, the Packers have a potent O while Manning and the Broncos O has struggled week-in and week-out and expecting the Denver D to save the day every Sunday just isn’t realistic. The Advanced Line here in Sin City was Green Bay -3 and the Packers were also installed as 3-point favorites in the SuperBook NFL Games of the Year released early each Summer here in this neon-tinted city-town of Las Vegas. This one is definitely must-watch stuff and will be heavily bet on but probably shouldn’t be. We’ll see the real Denver Broncos here and possibly a different side of the Green Bay Packers.
NFL Pick: Packers -2½ (Pinnacle)

NFL WEEK 8 EARLY WEEK VALUE PICKS: Patriots -7½ over Dolphins; Jets PK over Raiders; Seahawks -5½ over Cowboys; Packers -2½ over Broncos (Pinnacle)