NFL Picks: False Favorites & Top Dogs in Wildcard Betting Odds

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, December 30, 2014 8:38 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 30, 2014 8:38 PM UTC

With just four games to choose, it is difficult to find situations which fit the title of this article. Instead, I’ll change it up to identity where the public might be wrong against the NFL odds.

I will look at the NFL odds and percentages which have attracted the most sports picks and share my opinion as a NFL football handicapper expert and see where the public might be right or wrong.


Betting Public Pounding Lions/Cowboys Total
A review of websites when provide percentages of the number of bets placed has Detroit and Dallas approaching almost 90 percent on the OVER.

Unquestionably, the loss of Ndamukong Suh is playing a part into so many NFL picks following the higher number but let’s dig down and make the argument for betting against the public.

Despite finishing ahead of Tom Brady and a little behind Aaron Rodgers in passing yards, Matthew Stafford has not been the biggest reason why Detroit won 11 games this season. The Lions are averaging a paltry 15.6 points a game on the road and there has been no indication of an outburst forthcoming.

Check Out Our NFL Pick for Cowboys/Lions

The presumed absence Suh would seem to signify coach Jason Garrett would want to run the ball even more against the Lions thinned front, which in turn could lead to fewer possessions and fewer scoring opportunities.

With the total at 49, let’s make Dallas a 27-16 winner and an Under Play.

Betting Against the Public – Play Under at 5Dimes


Can Pittsburgh Win and Cover Rubber Match?
Nearly 70 percent of football bettors are of the opinion the Steelers will win their playoff game against their bitter rival from Baltimore.

It is hard to disagree with this line of thinking since Pittsburgh has been the more impressive team down the stretch at 4-0 SU and ATS, compared to the Ravens limping to a 3-1 record that includes 0-3 ATS in past three contests.

It is fun to learn when the home team in this rivalry is favored by three or less by the sportsbooks, they are 6-4-1 ATS.

Where this gets messy is Le’Veon Bell unlikely to play with hyper-extended knee.

Though Baltimore closed at 24th in passing yards allowed, Pittsburgh was even worse, finishing 27th and 29th in PYA and yards per attempt. With Steelers backups having only 19 carries in their NFL career, the Ravens could forsake the run in order to attack Ben Roethlisberger.

Not a huge endorsement for Baltimore, but if you can find +3.5, might be worth a take.

Betting Against the Public – Baltimore +3 at BetOnline


Bengals vs. Colts Total is Heading Downward
Odds makers sent out a total of 50 on Cincinnati and Indianapolis and the number has drifted south to 49. What makes this interesting is 60 percent of wagers placed to this juncture have been on the OVER.

The perception becomes wise guy money is more influencing this total and there is reason to believe they are correct.

In three previous postseason appearances, quarterback Andy Dalton and the Bengals have averaged 11 points a game, 11. If you assume wide receiver A.J. Green is out with a concussion, how does Cincinnati match points with Indianapolis?  

Since scoring 49 points almost six weeks ago, Andrew Luck and the Colts have been turnover-prone (15 in Weeks 12-16) and averaged a mere 19 points a game since.

This makes the UNDER an enticing selection.

Betting Against the Public Play Under at BookMaker

comment here