NFL Picks: False Favorites & Top Dogs for Week 2

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, September 15, 2015 6:18 PM GMT

Time to move ahead to Week 2 in the NFL and research the sportsbooks NFL odds and see what are optimal situations we can take advantages of for those of us making sports picks.

This week I have identified two false favorites and one live underdog as a NFL football handicapper and will explain why I prefer these teams.

The present listed odds are courtesy of Heritagesports.eu.

 

False Favorite - Tennessee For the Present Time
The original betting odds on the Titans were +4 at Cleveland and by around noon Pacific time on Tuesday, Tennessee had climbed all the way to one point favorites. While I was impressed with poise and composure of Marcus Mariota in his first start, I am not buying into Tennessee being a favorite here.

Let's be honest, the Titans had the second pick in the draft for a very good reason, they were a terrible football team and had many needs including quarterback. Granted, Cleveland is no prized possession, especially with Johnny Manziel taking the snaps for Josh McCown, but the Browns are not likely to commit five turnovers again and I have a hard time thinking Tennessee is good enough to win two in a row on the road.

Consider this for NFL picks, the Titans are 2-11 ATS after playing their last game on the road the last two seasons losing by 10.9 points a game.

Top Dog - Jacksonville Steps Up Against Miami
I know this will not be a popular pick and I even understand the logic for the argument, but here me out. Jacksonville is a six-point home underdog to Miami and under coach Gus Bradley, they are 3-12-1 ATS in this role. Despite this, I like the Jaguars and here is why.

Jacksonville played Carolina even (265-263 yardage edge) and fell because they were minus two in turnovers.

Miami is thought to be a playoff contender with off-season moves and the hopeful progression Ryan Tannehill is ready to turn into a Top 10 NFL quarterback. But Tannehill was terrible on passes down the field against a mediocre Washington defense and the Dolphins were out-gained by 87 yards with Kirk Cousins the Redskins quarterback.

Jacksonville has a better defense than Washington and front seven which can really bother Miami on offense. Add in the fact home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points are 16-5 ATS after scoring nine points or less in last game and I see a three-point outcome either way.

False Favorite - Colts Miss Hilton and Survive Jets
I was shocked how bad Indianapolis played at Buffalo, as Andrew Luck was jumpy and off target most of the day and Colts lines were handled on both sides of the line of scrimmage. With T.Y. Hilton out, the Bills showed the rest of the Indianapolis receivers can be covered.

The New York Jets do have several good defensive players and first-year coach Todd Bowles might not be completely as aggressive as Rex Ryan, but close, and he has the right players to institute a scheme similar to the Bills.

Granted, Indy will be at home, however, Gang Green should be able to run on the Colts and as long as my least favorite quarterback in the NFL Ryan Fitzpatrick does not hurt me, I think Indianapolis at NFL odds of -6.5 is too hefty at this time.