NFL Picks: False Favorites & Top Dogs for Week 13 Betting

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, December 1, 2015 10:53 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2015 10:53 PM UTC

Though we have 16 games on the board for Week 13, the sportsbooks have supplied NFL odds early in the week on only 14, because of uncertainty at quarterback from Cleveland and Pittsburgh.

Yet, this has been going on all season and often the bye weeks made it even worse, thus as football handicappers we put on big boy pants and go to work to come up with sports picks.

Actually half proud to admit my win percentage went down with 2-1 record again last week and now sit at 24-11-1 ATS on the year, 68.5 percent. The current NFL odds are courtesy of Heritage.


False Favorite: Tennessee in Clumsy Situation
Tennessee was in a great position to knock off Oakland at home last week, leading 21-17 in the later stages of the fourth quarter, but once again failed to come through, dropping them to 4-14 ATS at LP Field the last three seasons. Once again the Titans will face a team in their class in Jacksonville. Tennessee should have defeated them back on Nov.19th, holding another four quarter lead, yet as per usual, they did what all bad teams do and found a way to lose. Tennessee is at 2.5-point over the Jaguars at home, but are 0-8 ATS off a loss by six or less. Sporting a 1-8-1 ATS record versus Jacksonville, these Titans hardly have the strength of Hercules and are false favorites.

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Top Dog: Seattle Wins Battle with Minnesota
Not sure how to classify the Seahawks as I have seen them listed from -1, Pick and +1 depending on the sportsbook, but for these NFL picks, I'll choose them in underdog role to win outright. What I like about Seattle is the matchup, because their biggest issue all year for them has been teams that can throw the ball down the field. Minnesota has a more conservative approach and prefers to think run-first, which is good for Pete Carroll's defense, as they are fifth against the run in the NFL. I am certainly not going to argue against the Vikings 9-2 ATS record and fine defense, but the Seahawks are off two wins and covers and are strong closers at 11-2 ATS in December since 2012. With the odds this low, linemakers are suggesting Seattle is still the better team and I agree.

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False Favorite: New York Jets Lose City Bragging Rights
The New York Giants made more mistakes than NFL official Pete Morelli and his crew in the first 50 minutes of their divisional contest with Washington and lost. This coupled with the New York Jets winning easily over Miami has sent bettors scurrying to Gang Green, raising them from a Pick to -2.5. Before pushing the throttle to maximum output on the Jets, consider that are 2-4 and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games and you have to ask yourself after Ryan Fitzpatrick had five touchdown passes, are you really sold on him over Eli Manning this week or any week for that matter. Also, when the Flyboys have played two straight OVER affairs, they crash with 0-6 ATS record and they have lost five in a row to the G-Men.

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