NFL Picks: False Favorites & Top Dogs for Week 1

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, September 8, 2015 7:41 PM GMT

We begin another year of breaking down the betting odds looking to make NFL picks to beat the sportsbooks and I am raring to go to get the season started!

This will be my sixth year writing articles and doing videos and it is always and honor and a pleasure to do so and as many of you are aware I have a great track record making NFL picks over the years and I look to do more of the same as an NFL football handicapper.

Time to get things started and the NFL odds are courtesy of WagerWeb.

 

Top Dog - Chiefs Round up Texans on the Road
Just the fact Kansas City is only a one-point road underdog tells you the oddsmakers are already preferring the Chiefs in Houston. Kansas City's will have a better passing attack this season with Alex Smith at helm throwing to receivers Jeremy Maclin, Albert Wilson and Jason Avant and do not forget tight end Travis Kelce. Keep in mind despite Houston being disruptive in the defensive line with the likes of J.J. Watt, they were 21st against the pass a year ago.

While Smith is only an average quarterback, the Texans progress over the long haul will be hampered Brian Hoyer, who I would label as "serviceable" and ranks in the bottom 25 percent of NFL starters.

The Chiefs are 6-3 ATS as road underdogs under Andy Reid and win outright.

NFL Pick: Chiefs +105 at BetOnline

 

Top Dog - Raiders Stun Bengals
The Oakland Raiders remain one of the most dysfunction franchises in the NFL, with goofy ownership, a haphazard general manager and other quirky elements. However, one good thing Oakland did was bring in Jack Del Rio to be their head coach. The former Jacksonville coach might not ever lead a team to a Super Bowl, but compared to the prior coach Dennis Allen, Oakland enters the season not scrambling to put together a 53-man roster.

Oakland is better by units at almost every position compared to a year ago and by all appearances the dumb mistakes which have plagued the Raiders will be reduced.

Look for Oakland to run the ball, take shots down the field with better pass-catchers for QB Derek Carr and the defensive front seven to force the Bengals Andy Dalton to get rid of the ball quick, which could lead to turnovers. Cincy is just 1-6 ATS in Oakland and I'm predicting Da Raiders start 1-0 for just the second time since 2003.

NFL Pick: Raiders +3.5 (-120) at The Greek

 

False Favorite - Dallas Struggles with Rival Giants
While most as still high on the Dallas Cowboys and justifiable so, the New York Giants present a different challenge because of the weapons they have on the perimeter. Eli Manning, if given any time to throw, can look in almost any direction with complete confidence to a receiver very skilled to haul in a pass.

Tony Romo will still lead a very good offense but the loss of DeMarco Murray will matter and the chemistry of using primarily one back compared to three will affect the Dallas offensive line no matter how good they are. Both teams have suffered injuries in the secondary, which will make having a strong pass rush a must, but cannot ignore the G-Man are catching six points against Dallas, who is 6-20 ATS as home favorites.

NFL Pick: Giants +7 (-135) at 5Dimes