After a slow 1-5 against the spread start last Thursday, NFL football underdogs roared back the rest of the weekend with a 9-1 ATS record. This adds a lot on intrigue coming into NFLX Week 2.
With coaches being able to truly have areas to work on based on last week's results, this alters many of the dynamics coming into this upcoming weekend. The teams that played poorly are expected to have a tough week of practice, with position coaches and the head coach wanting far better results. Players on teams that performed well might be more content and could be caught with guard down, especially this time of year.
For NFL picks, this is where we make our choices, looking for an opportunity to exploit three situations that fit this tried and true pattern.
Buffalo Exposed By Angry Giants
The Bills actually played a solid all-around game in losing to Indianapolis 19-18 as 2.5-point home favorites and could have won, failing to cash on a two-point conversion in the final seconds.
Buffalo held a 98-yard total yardage edge and top quality sportsbook Pinnacle opened the Bills as 2.5-point choice over the New York Giants. The G-Men were pathetic in defeat to Miami, committing four turnovers and held to abysmal 69 passing yards.
This was not the kind if performance rookie head coach Ben McAdoo was seeking and you should expect the Giants to be much sharper. Add in Buffalo is 2-8 ATS if an opponent is off a double digit loss and the Bills become false favorites at sportsbooks.
Look for Cardinals and Bears to Shine as Underdogs This Week
Though Arizona outgained Oakland at home last Friday, they were blown up 31-10, turning the pigskin over three times. Coach Bruce Arians publicly was nonchalant, did not want to make a big deal about it, but this dude is intense and he's not going to pat his guys on the head and say "It's OK, we'll do better next time." Reports from practices have seen words like "lively" and "energetic", which are code words for intense. The NFL odds have San Diego as 1.5-point home favorites after there also lousy 27-10 loss at Tennessee and since 2007, preseason underdogs off a setback facing a squad off a road demolition are 27-9 ATS.
Chicago has veteran coach John Fox and his team was just embarrassed 22-0 in the Windy City by his former employer Denver. It is a given that is not going to sit well with coach Fox and he will have his team much better prepared, even though they are facing New England. The Patriots 12-digit victory over New Orleans had a great deal to do with +4 turnover differential. Two systems are in play here, one, road clubs like the Bears are 28-9 ATS in nonconference clashes off a home loss as favorite and secondly, home faves like the Pats after a +3 or better turnover margin are 6-22 ATS in next outing.