It’s Monday once again, and after another wild week of football, there is one more game to be played. The Falcons head out west for a battle with the 49ers, and the NFL odds are largely in favor of the 49ers at -14, with a total of 46. While you could waste your time looking at these very sharp NFL odds, instead you could take a look at a couple of these prop wagers I have selected tonight. You can find both of these at Bet365, and I think both have much greater value that the spread or total.
These two teams have very capable offenses, and both have above average kickers. While normally the Bet365 FG total has a half FG associated with it, they have added some props recently, and this is one of them. For the same price as a bet on the spread or total, ‘Over’ 3 field goals seems golden tonight at -110.
Phil Dawson is currently 11th in FGs despite playing one less game than everyone, and with a monster spread such as this one, if the game is indeed out of hand. The 49ers will play conservatively in Falcons’ territory, and they will likely opt for field goals more if they have a big second half lead. Dawson has made 27 FGs this season in 15 games.
Kicker Matt Bryant for the Falcons has been coming on recently as well, but a main reason for his success has been the slight resurgence of the Falcons' offense. Bryant has kicked ten field goals in the Falcons’ last five games, and he has made eight of them. One of the misses was from 50+ yards, but either way, both of these teams are capable of adding value to this wager.
Not having the line at 3.5 FGs gives us added value for our NFL picks too in the case of a push, but I could easily see four field goals tonight between these two in primetime.
My Pick: ‘Over’ 3 FGs (-110)
A guy that could be huge for the 49ers in the playoffs is Michael Crabtree, (assuming the Niners win this week and next to get in) who is finally starting to look healthy after his injury this past offseason. He caught a touchdown last week, and this week at Bet365, his NFL Odds to score a touchdown are at -105, and I love the value.
With Crabtree, the Niners’ offense takes a step up, and now they have three or more very viable receiving options. While this takes away from Crabtree’s value a little bit, the price he has tonight is too good to pass up. Crabtree was, and still is the best pass catching option for the Niners, (assuming he is back to 100%) and I see him getting into the end zone for the 2nd straight week.
The Falcons’ defense is another big reason why I like this prop so much. This season, the Falcons have given up 16 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers, which ties them for 6th most in the NFL, and every team has played 16 games to their 15. After tonight I expect that total to go up, and hopefully it’s at least in part because of Crabtree.My Pick: Michael Crabtree TD Scored (-105)