NFL Picks: Fade Overvalued Bears vs. Rams Week 10 in St. Louis

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, November 11, 2015 12:47 PM GMT

The Bears won a Monday night thriller over the Chargers while the Rams lost a heartbreaker to the Vikings. Let's see what the NFL odds makers are offering & find sharp sides to bet NFL picks.

Chicago Bears (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS)
Jay Cutler broke the Bears' franchise record for touchdown passes with 139 surpassing the immortal Sid Luckman and rallied his team in the fourth quarter to defeat the San Diego Chargers 22-19 on Monday night. But in typical Jay Cutler fashion it wasn't all good. Cutler had a pick-six and a fumble which mitigated somewhat his 27-of-40 passing for 345 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

It seems that is what you get when you hire Jay Cutler. The Bears' controversial QB has the tools to be one of the best but poor decisions often derail his natural ability. On Monday night throwing an interception returned for a touchdown and losing a fumble still couldn't prevent the Bears from winning a critical game on the road. The NFL odds makers installed the Bears as 3 ½ point underdogs and they not only covered the number but also cashed for all those bettors who had the courage to eschew the points and play them on the money line in their NFL picks.

Chicago has won three of its last five games but more importantly for he who puts his money where his mouth is, the Bears have covered the point spread on four of their last five opportunities. Over the course of their last five games the final score has been decided by an average of 2.4 points. As the Bears enter Week 10 they rank 21st in passing, 16th in rushing, 25th in points scored and 27th in points allowed.

 

St. Louis Rams (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS)
Former Charger, Dolphin, Patriot and Bronco Wes Welker is now a St. Louis Ram. The diminutive All-Pro wide receiver, who helped the Patriots win three AFC Championships and was Tom Brady's go-to guy before signing with Denver, is replacing Stedman Bailey who was suspended for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy. Welker has been pretty much radioactive since his contract expired with the Broncos due to his many concussions. Teams have been more than leery of signing Welker who, at age 34, is one violent hit away from permanent retirement and what could turn into a public relations disaster for the team whose uniform he is wearing.

All that said Welker won the spot over Hakeem Nicks and Vincent Brown who also worked out for the Rams. But St. Louis decided on Welker who is the prototypical slot receiver and can hopefully add some punch to a Rams passing attack that more closely resembles a mild affront. St. Louis ranks dead last in passing yards averaging only 177 per contest and last in third down conversions at 23.8 percent. Todd Gurley has been the hero this season for St. Louis providing an electric rushing attack that ranks 4th in the league averaging over 135 yards per game.

 

NFL Betting Advice
Despite their first three games of the season in which they played the iron of the NFC in Green Bay, Arizona and Seattle the Bears have kept games close. But when you consider the teams that they have played over this five game stretch only Minnesota would jump out as a top grade defense. The Rams are a very similar team to the Vikings with a top notch defense and an explosive rusher in the backfield. One could then conclude that Chicago only lost 23-20 to Minnesota and the results against the Rams should be similar. Well that wouldn't be entirely true because the Bears hosted the Vikings whereas this week they will be on the road and working on a short week due to their Monday night game with San Diego.

The bottom line here is that the Bears have been playing over their heads and I trust Jay Cutler to keep pulling out victories like I trust the mantra, "if you like your doctor you can keep your doctor". Here are a few stats to consider:

Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in Week 10.Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a home underdog of 3 ½ - 10.

Bears are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a S.U. win.

Bears are 18-38-1 ATS in their last 57 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

NFL Pick: Play St. Louis -7 at GTBets