NFL Picks: Fade the Chiefs at Home Week 7 Against Pittsburgh (-2)

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, October 21, 2015 2:41 PM GMT

Let’s look at the Steelers vs. Chiefs Week 7 game with all of the key information, Odds, Trends, significant Injuries & other stuff and then try to come up with a logical NFL pick.

Odds Overview Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs (1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS) welcome the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2 SU, 4-0-2 ATS) to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Sunday for this Week 7 AFC inter-divisional tilt which would pretty much be a season-ending Loss for the hosts should that happen. Because of the injury to Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (MCL, Knee), the Point Spread here is currently off the board now (Tuesday evening) at almost all sportsbooks here in Las Vegas and Offshore although the Steelers are 2-point favorites at BetOnline (-105). Also because of uncertainty about Roethlisberger, the Total in this inter-divisional AFC game as well as the Money Line are obviously also off the betting board. Maybe Big Ben is ready to return? All those markets as well as the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs Team Total Points numbers will come out when more is known, and keeping the number down is the right thing to do from the sportsbook POV as the difference between a Roethlisberger-led Steelers Offense and a Michael Vick- or Landry Jones-led Steelers Offense translates to around 6-7 points in the Point Spread. For now, handicapping off the Steelers -2 will have to do. At a sportsbook in Sin City I visited earlier, the Steelers-Chiefs game wasn’t even on the sheet, so you can see what some think about this game right now. The numbers will be out at some point.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers (145 PF-108 PA, W2) used backup QBs Michael Vick and Landry Jones to knock the Arizona Cardinals off their high horse at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh last Sunday, rolling to a 25-13 victory and this is a team to watch as once Roethlisberger returns, this team will be a tough one to handle Offensively. As of right now, Pittsburgh is moving forward under the premise that backup Landry Jones will start on Sunday, with Head Coach Mike Tomlin (70-68-2 ATS) saying for now it’s Jones because “he’s the one that’s healthy” with starter Roethlisberger (MCL, Bone Bruise) possibly likely close to return and the team wanting to stay mum (one report slates a mid-November return) or wait another week or three until he’s closer to 100% and second-stringer Michael Vick (Hamstring) also nursing a hurt and more of a liability when he takes snaps. Besides Big Ben, Pittsburgh (25/1 to win Super Bowl, William Hill) also has some injury problems with starting C Maurkice Pouncey (Left Fibula-Ankle) and other backup QB Bruce Gradkowski (Hand), K Shaun Suisham (Knee), K Garrett Hartley (Hamstring), TE Rob Blanchflower (Ankle) and T Mike Adams (back) all on the Injured-Reserve List and LB Jarvis Jones (Hip) and CB Cortez Allen (Head) both listed as Questionable and LB Ryan Shazier (Shoulder) listed as Probable now. From a betting standpoint—at this point in Time—assuming Roethlisberger won’t play here is the only approach and this team is stacked with Offensive Skill Players to work around anyway in the team leader’s absence. RB Le’Veon Bell, RB DeAngelo Williams, star WR Antonio Brown, WR Markus Wheaton, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR Martavis Bryant and TE Heath Miller give the Steelers a team that can hang with anyone Offensively once Roethlisberger returns, and with 4 covers and 2 Pushes in 6 games ATS, Pittsburgh hasn’t lost backers money at the betting window yet either. Solid.

 

Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs (127 PF-159 PA, L5) and Head Coach Andy Reid (20-19 ATS) also have their share on Injury problems heading into this game, with maybe their two most dynamic players, WR Jeremy Maclin and RB Jamaal Charles, possibly both Out for this crucial game. Charles will definitely miss the game on the Injured-Reserve List, while Maclin (Concussion) is listed as Questionable. With those two non-factors, Kansas City and QB Alex Smith will continue to try to rely on TE Travis Kelce while RBs like Knile Davis and De’Anthony Thomas will try to pick up the slack for the missing Charles. But he’s irreplaceable in this Offense. And hoping that this Chiefs (500/1 to win Super Bowl, William Hill) team will score points is always difficult, and the 127 they have scored is the 5th lowest total in the AFC heading into Week 7. On the Injury front for Kansas City, besides RB Charles (Knee, I-R) and WR Maclin (Concussion, Questionable), LB Josh Mauga (Groin) and DL Mike DeVito (Concussion) are both listed as Questionable. One good thing for the Chiefs in recent years has been their Defense, and with players like veteran S Eric Berry, LB Justin Houston and LB Derrick Johnson, you’d expect as much but this year has been a challenge for the Chiefs (L5) and starting off the year playing the Texans, Broncos, Packers, Bengals, Bears, Vikings and Steelers would be a tough trek for any NFL team in Weeks 1-7. schedule order matters and many teams are out of the race by Week 9.

 

Series Numbers, Recent Relevant Trends and Game Expectations
The last meeting here in the Show Me State (Missouri) between these two AFC teams ended with the Steelers winning 13-9, but failing to cover as big 11-point chalks back in 2011, while when these two met last year in the Steel City, the Steelers won 20-12 and covered ATS as 2½-point favorites last season. The Chiefs are 3-1 ATS the L4 vs. Pittsburgh and Kansas City is 4-1 ATS the L5 vs. the Steelers here at Arrowhead Stadium but this Pittsburgh team is hungry and feeling good after knocking off the Cardinals without Roethlisberger while the Chiefs are a Loss away from talking and planning for next season. Trend-wise, Pittsburgh is a very impressive 9-1-1 ATS the L11 overall and the Under may be worth a look as the Under is 28-12 ATS L40 Chiefs games and the Under is also 10-2 ATS the L12 Steelers games in the month of October. Do you have your Halloween candy yet? If this Point Spread comes out anywhere Steelers -2 to -5, even though in Kansas City and against a stout Defensive team, backing the Steelers is the strong call here in a game they should control from start to finish. This may be the best bet on the board Sunday, number willing of course. At Steelers -2, it seems that way.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Steelers 27 Chiefs 16

NFL WEEK 7 PICK: Steelers -2 (-105) at BetOnline