NFL Picks: Expect Low Score on Sunday Night for 49ers & Giants

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, October 6, 2015 2:25 PM GMT

Let’s look at the early week betting odds, trends & injuries for both NFC teams heading into the 49ers vs. Giants game & see if we can squeeze out an NFL pick for primetime Sunday Night Football.

Odds Overview San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Giants
The the New York Giants (2-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) host the San Francisco 49ers (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) and troubled QB Colin Kaepernick (13-9-3 ATS on Road) at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford on Sunday night in a game which many may choose to avoid, and another NBC primetime affair which looked better on the schedule two months ago. Currently, (Tuesday), the Giants are solid 7-point favorites almost everywhere with the Total in this NFC inter-divisional game at 43 everywhere. Both of these seem like really solid numbers. On the Money Line, the favored Giants are priced at -400 with the visiting and scuffling 49ers lined at +360 on the takeback (5Dimes). The New York Giants Team Total Points has been set at 22½ (Paddy Power, -120 Over and Under) for this game while the San Francisco 49ers Team Total Points has been set at 18 (Paddy Power, -120 Over and Under). The Advanced Line for this game, out last Wednesday from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, had the G-Men was also (Giants minus) 7. Some Alternate Odds: Giants -6½ -125, 49ers +6½ +105 (5Dimes); and Giants -7½ +115, 49ers +7½ -135 (5Dimes).

 

San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers (48 PF-110 PA) and troubled QB Colin Kaepernick (13-9-3 ATS on Road) have some real issues. So far after four game this Regular Season, the Niners have scored an NFL-low 48 points. Not prolific. (The Patriots popped a 51 on the Jags two weeks ago.) And 20 of those 48 San Francisco points came in Week 1’s 20-3 win over the Minnesota Vikings at Levi’s Stadium where this team actually looked pretty promising. Since then, the 49ers have lost at Pittsburgh in Week 2 (43-18); lost at Arizona in Week 3 (47-7); and, on Sunday, the Packers defeated San Francisco, 17-3 in Santa Clara to drop the 49ers to woeful 1-3 and in crisis mode. And three straight non-covers to boot. So this trip cross-country for the Niners couldn’t come at a worse time. And the team’s usually reliable Defense has allowed 110 points—probably in some great part because they are stuck on the field so much from QB Kaepernick and the Offense’s ineptness to control possession of the football. It’s that simple. The 49ers (300/1 to Super Bowl, Ladbrokes) do have some nice parts on Offense in WRs Torrey Smith (9 receptions, 185 yards, TD) and Anquan Boldin (15 receptions, 124 yards) and RB Carlos Hyde (62 rushes, 282 yards, 2 TDs), but devising an Offensive scheme weekly around an unconventional QB like Kaepernick who is having trouble getting First Downs and putting up points on the scoreboard has to be hard for all involved. The 49ers have three players listed as Questionable for Week 5’s game at the Giants: WR Quinton Patton (Concussion), TE Vernon Davis (Knee) and CB Shareece Wright (Undisclosed).

 

New York Giants
The New York Giants (102 PF-82 PA, W2) did themselves a huge favor on Sunday, beating the Bills in Buffalo to improve to 2-2, avoiding a 1-3 start and potential weeks of chasing Hope. At 2-2, Hope is still alive and very well now for the G-Men, who play in the NFC East—a division with the hobbled Dallas Cowboys (2-2), the over-hyped Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) and the mighty, mighty Washington Redskins (2-2). This is not hyperbole. This is sarcasm. And sports bettors have sure noticed, sending odds for the Giants to win the Super Bowl to (a high) of 33/1 (Sky Bet)—they were at 66/1 two weeks ago—meaning even the marketplace now has some Hope in New York NFC. The Giants and Head Coach Tom Coughlin (101-89-3 ATS) heard on Monday that they may get DE Jason Pierre-Paul (Fireworks Injury, finger amputation) back for L4 games of the Regular Season, but for now, tackling the immediate schedule and trying to have QB Eli Manning (42-50-1 ATS at Home) try to get the ball to superstar WR Odell Beckham Jr. (24 receptions, 307 yards, 2 TDs), WR Victor Cruz and TE Larry Donnell (15 receptions, 119 yards, TD) as much as possible should be the Rx for the immediate future. Let’s say it now: The Giants are really lucky to be in this NFC East, this season. There is Hope because of the nice win at Buffalo. On the Injury front, besides the aforementioned Pierre-Paul, the Giants have a number of issues that may stifle progress with both WR Beckham (Knee, Questionable) and Cruz (Calf, Doubtful), DT Markus Kuhn (Knee, Questionable), DE Robert ayers (Hamstring, Questionable) and LB Devon Kennard (Hamstring, Questionable) all hobbled and nursing hurts heading into this game. Because it’s at Home and because it’s against a team as anemic and struggling as the 49ers, New York will expect, and needs, to win this game. But as Beatles drummer Ringo Starr knows, it certainly won’t come easy with San Francisco’s season now teetering at 1-3 and a Win the thing it needs to right its ship.

 

Series Numbers, Recent Relevant Trends and Game Expectations
The last time these two former NFC heavyweights played here at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, the 49ers won and covered as 4-point favorites in a low-scoring 16-10 game last season in Week 10, but San Francisco hasn’t fared well in this series Trend-wise, going 1-4 ATS L5 against the G-Men on their own turf—where the 49ers will lose 3 Hours back from PDT to EDT—and San Francisco is a dismal 2-7 ATS the L9 overall in this series. After having two terrible 4th Quarters in their first two games which led to Losses, the Giants have improved some on that side of the ball—they now rank 26th, allowing 1,544 Total Yards—and having a two-game win streak and Hope and playing at Home here provides big advantages for New York. But the 49ers have their backs up against the wall, and will have to play strong Defense to try to stay in the game to avoid the 1-4 nightmare start. This should keep the game close throughout, but with just those 48 points scored, expecting San Francisco and Kaepernick to suddenly jell offensively on the Road where they have scored just 25 points so far, is asking a bit much. And with Giants like Beckham and Cruz a little banged up and the Giants needing them long-term, a safe approach from the hosts is expected. This one may have a Bore Warning.

Predicted Final Score: New York Giants 24 San Francisco 49ers 17

Week 5 NFL Pick: Under 43 (5Dimes)