NFL Picks: Expect Cowboys & Giants to Keep Scores Low in Week 7

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, October 21, 2015 6:51 PM GMT

The NFL odds makers are hanging Dallas Cowboys and N.Y. Giants a total of 45½, but let’s analyze this matchup and determine whether this one goes high or low.

Cowboys Reeling
The Boyz are not off to a good start due in large part to the absences of star wideout Dez Bryant and stalwart quarterback Tony Romo. In what many pundits envisioned as a division winning season, and a trip to the postseason almost an afterthought, the Cowboys enter Week 7 with a 2-3 straight up record and a 1-4 ATS mark. Dallas’s 25th ranked scoring offense (20.2) is to blame for 3-of-5 games going under the NFL odds posted totals, but their 22nd ranked defense (26.2 PPG) gives hope that going over is still a viable NFL pick.

Those two key stats were never more clearly illustrated than in their 30-6 defeat at AT&T Stadium in Week 5 against the New England Patriots. While the defense did their part, if you bet over, in allowing Tom Brady and company to put up 30 points, the Dallas offense was again grounded against a Patriots’ defense that is good but by no means great. Quarterback Brandon Weeden went 5-of-15 with a pick on passes thrown more than five yards downfield in his last outing against New England, but was 21-of-24 on passes tossed within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. Bottom line is that Dallas has no deep threat capabilities and must move the chains in their passing attack as though they were running the ball.

Must Read: Week 7 Wagering Trends to Consider Before Betting

Big Blue Stumbling
The Giants are coming off their worst loss of the season in Week 6, as they were plucked apart by the Eagles in Philadelphia 27-7. The Giants were swarmed by a relentless Eagle’s pass rush and were forced into penalties and turnovers that sealed their fate in a pivotal NFC East matchup. Eli Manning was 24-of-38 for 189 yards, one touchdown, and a pair of interceptions. The Giants mustered only 81 yards, rushing with 12 of them coming courtesy of an Eli Manning scramble. Odell Beckham Jr. led all Giants’ receivers with 61 yards and a trip into the endzone off a 17-yard Manning strike.

It was a soul-crushing defeat in light of the fact that New York had picked themselves off the mat after dropping their first two games of the season, only to bounce back with three consecutive victories until they met Philly on Monday night. Mistakes and a collective lack of inspiration saw the Giants unable to generate much offense throughout, and poor tackling on defense saw them trailing by 10 at the half and 17 by the end of the third-quarter. After the opening quarter the team just disappeared.

The bottom line to this total is that Dallas continues their offensive woes without Romo in the pocket and Bryant streaking down the sidelines, while New York is susceptible to penalties and poor decision making. I don’t see Manning lighting it up even though Dallas has the 22nd ranked defense in points allowed because the team is not getting via the passing attack. New York has a decent enough defense (14th) in terms of points allowed and should be a stern enough test to keep Brandon Weeden from doing any real damage. We are looking low in our NFL picks for this one on Sunday.

 

NFL Picks
The NFL odds makers are hanging a total of 45½ pretty much across the board and that is most likely a result of the teams’ previous Week 1 meeting that saw the Cowboys claim a 27-26 victory and narrowly going over the posted total of 52. However, this is a matchup of a decimated Cowboys squad and a Giants’ team that has sustained key injuries of their own. Therefore, the total is more in keeping with the teams that take the field in Week 7 as opposed to the healthier squads that opposed each other in the opening week.

 

Below are some stats to consider:

-Under is 6-2 in Giants last eight games in October.
-Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last six games following a double-digit loss at home.
-Under is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games following an ATS loss.
-Under is 4-0 in Cowboys last four games as an underdog.

NFL Pick: Play Under 45½ at GTBets.

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