NFL Picks: Expect Aaron Rodgers to Shred the 49ers Defense in Week 4

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, September 30, 2015 1:35 PM GMT

Wednesday, Sep. 30, 2015 1:35 PM GMT

The undefeated Packers pack their bags and head west to meet the reeling 49’ers fresh off a beating at the hands of the Cardinals. Let’s peruse the NFL odds to see which side has an edge.

Green Bay Packers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)
Aaron Rodgers proved yet again why he is among the elite quarterbacks in the NFL as he eviscerated the Kansas City Chiefs’ defense to the tune of 333 passing yards and five - count’em - five, touchdowns en route to a 38-28 Monday night victory. It was yet another sublime performance by a quarterback who has stepped out from the immense shadow of his predecessor Brett Favre to become a legend in his own right. Fifth year man out of the University of Kentucky Randall Cobb has steadily become a favorite weapon as he snagged three of Rodgers’ five TD passes and gained 91 yards on seven receptions.

The score was not indicative of just how lopsided the contest actually was as the Packers had built a 38-14 lead early in the fourth quarter, thus the outcome was never in doubt. Though the Chiefs did score 28 points it should be noted that the Green Bay defense limited one of the premier rushers in the league, Jamaal Charles, to just 49 yards on 11 carries. Kansas City only managed to make this one relatively close, though came short of covering the NFL odds as 5 ½ point underdogs, due to the old prevent defense (which can often prevent a team from winning) employed by the Pack.

 

San Francisco 49’ers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
It’s difficult to believe that the team that so convincingly won their home opener 20-3 over the Minnesota Vikings has dropped two consecutive road tilts in such deplorable fashion. The Niners have gotten hammered on the highway and there hasn’t been a whiskey bottle in sight, although that could be a perfectly logical explanation of just how poorly they have played. In Week 2 they traveled to Pittsburgh and were spanked by the Steelers 43-18. As if that wasn’t humiliating enough the 49’ers flew to the desert and were torched by Carson Palmer and the Cardinals to the tune of 47-7. In all, San Francisco has surrendered 90 points over two games and the mood can’t be good in the Niners locker room.

If you want to lay blame then the first man up is quarterback Colin Kaepernick who acknowledged as much after the one-sided romp.

 "Very hard to see myself go out and play like that and hurt this team the way I did," he said. "I nullified all the efforts of every player on the field today."

The 49’ers were down 14-0 before they even knew what hit them courtesy of two pick-six’s thrown by Kaepernick. When the dust settled he had tossed four interceptions and went 9-for-19 through the air for 67 yards and one rushing touchdown. But perhaps even worse is that San Francisco did themselves no favors on the other side of the ball as the battery of Palmer to Fitzgerald accounted for 137 of Carson Palmer’s 311 yards and a pair of trips into the endzone. You can replace one guy but you can’t replace an entire defense.

 

NFL Betting Analysis
The public will be including the Packers in their NFL picks this week like they are reading Monday morning’s newspapers. Yet I am skeptical to overreacting to a convincing win by one team and a putrid performance by another. The case can be made that the 49’ers are going home after a two week road swing and looked perfectly competent in their victory over Minnesota just three weeks ago when playing in their own playground. The Packers defense won’t strike fear into the hearts of quarterbacks and receivers allowing an average of 22.7 points per game (ranked 13th) but they are perfectly serviceable in light of their prolific offense.

This league is supposed to be about parity and as bad as Kaepernick looked last week you have to believe he’ll be good for a few touchdowns against a middling Packers defense. But then we look at what has happened to the 49’ers defense when pitted against big passers like Roethlisberger and Palmer. Now comes Rodgers who is better than both and what the hell do you expect? I’m not going to lay close to nine points on the road but I am certainly not comfortable grabbing the points either with a San Francisco team that looks disjointed, discombobulated and disinterested.

But what I do believe is that there will be plenty of points on the board. These are teams not known for playing defense. Aaron Rodgers should have a field day and I believe Kaepernick is good enough to feast a bit of his own on the Packers D. Look for plenty of scoreboard changes in this one.

NFL Pick: Packers & Niners 'OVER' 48 at Bookmaker

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