NFL Picks: Examining the Biggest Spreads for Week 7 Betting

Matthew Jordan

Friday, October 23, 2015 6:05 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 23, 2015 6:05 PM UTC

After 3 straight winning weeks, just 1-2 on the biggest spreads in Week 6. Hit on Colts +10, but missed on Packers -10.5 & Seahawks -7. Here are the Week 7 Pinnacle top NFL spread odds. 

Baltimore Ravens At Arizona Cardinals (-10 on NFL Odds)
This is your Monday night game this week and features the NFL's most disappointing team in Baltimore at 1-5 -- no team that started 1-5 ever  made the playoffs. Could this be John Harbaugh's final season as the Ravens' coach? You do hear some USC rumors, but that would represent a pay cut for Harbaugh. Actually, the Ravens are literally one play in each game from being 6-0. They lost by six in Denver in Week 1 despite not allowing an offensive touchdown. They lost by four in Oakland in Week 2 on a Derek Carr 12-yard TD pass with 26 seconds left. In Week 3, it was 28-24 at home to Cincinnati on an Andy Dalton 7-yard TD pass with 2:10 remaining. True, in Week 4 the Ravens should have lost in Pittsburgh but Steelers kicker Josh Scobee (since cut) missed two very makeable fourth-quarter field goals. In Week 5, the Ravens lost 33-30 in OT to Cleveland, blowing a 12-piont lead. And last week it was 25-20 at San Francisco, with the Ravens ending the game at the 49ers' 35-yard line. The Baltimore defense has largely been the problem as it is allowing 27.0 points per game (27th in NFL) and second-to-last in opponents' third-down conversion percentage at 47.8. The Ravens also have been getting killed by the long ball, and Cardinals QB Carson Palmer is tied for the NFL lead with 27 completions of 20 of more yards this season.

NFL Free Pick: By reading all the facts above, you probably expect me to pick Arizona here. Nope, take the points. Ravens may lose, but not by more than a touchdown. Baltimore is 4-0-1 ATS in its past five road games vs. teams with a winning home record. Arizona is 0-5 ATS in its past five on Monday.

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New York Jets At New England Patriots (-8 In NFL Betting)
One of the AFC's better rivalries is renewed for the first time this season and it's the only game in Week 7 featuring two teams with winning records. The AFC East lead is on the line; the teams would be tied at 5-1 should the Jets pull the upset but obviously they would hold the early tiebreaker. New England has won seven of the past eight meetings but the past four were decided by a field goal or less. The difference in this game between the NFL's top defense against its top offense is how Tom Brady handles the New York blitz because no team blitzes more (47.6 percent of dropbacks) -- that has been Coach Todd Bowles' calling card from his defensive coordinator days with Arizona. Brady struggled some against the blitz in last week's win over Indianapolis, including a pick-six. Although Brady's completion percentage against the blitz is an excellent 69.2, sixth-best in the NFL. But that New England offensive line is depleted due to injuries. I expect the Jets to keep it close just by eating clock behind the NFL's best rushing attack. Chris Ivory leads the NFL in rushing yards per game (115.5). He has run for at least 100 yards in two of his four meetings against the Patriots.

NFL Free Pick: Jets. Pats also might be a tad flat off last week's revenge game win over the Colts. Jets are 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings. Road team has covered five of the past seven.

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Cleveland Browns At St. Louis Rams (-6.5 On NFL Picks)
The Rams are likely to be a popular pick in Survivor Pools this week if Arizona and New England already have been used. Interestingly, this is third straight season that Browns QB Josh McCown will face the Rams and with a third different team. Last year, in a 19-17 Week 2 Rams win at Tampa Bay, McCown completed 16-for-21 for 179 yards and a pick. Those Bucs were awful. In 2013 with Chicago (Jay Cutler was out injured), McCown completed 36-for-47 for 352 yards, two touchdowns and a pick in a 42-21 loss in St. Louis. The Rams have a very good defense and McCown saw one of the NFL's top defenses last week in the Denver Broncos. McCown completed 20-for-39 for 213 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown in the loss. He also lost a fumble on a sack that led to a Broncos field goal. Rams have the advantage of coming off their bye week. Todd Gurley could have a big day against the NFL's worst rush defense.

NFL Free Pick: St. Louis. The Rams are 6-2 ATS in their past eight following bye week. 

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