Cashed in big on my 3 top spread picks of Week 5, hitting on Chicago +10 at Kansas City, Green Bay -10 vs. St. Louis & New England -10 at Dallas. Here are the Week 6 top NFL spread odds.
San Diego Chargers vs. Green Bay Packers (-10.5 On NFL Odds)
It would seem like everything is going against the Chargers for this one. They come off a gut-wrenching, possibly season-ruining loss on the last play of Monday night's home game against the Steelers. So it's not just a short week for the Bolts, but now they travel two time zones east. And then you have the fact that Green Bay hasn't lost a home regular-season game in forever that Aaron Rodgers has started and finished -- although his amazing interception streak at Lambeau Field ended in last week's win over the Rams. He hadn't thrown one there since 2012. Rodgers' nine home TD passes this season lead the NFL. San Diego does catch a minor break in that this game isn't kicking off at 10 a.m. Pacific time but 4:25 p.m. ET. You should rarely back West Coast teams playing those 1 p.m. ET games. The first quarter could decide this as the Packers have scored an NFL-high 52 first-quarter points and have allowed only six, leading the league with a plus-46 point differential after the first 15 minutes. Since the start of last season, Green Bay has outscored the opposition 134-24 in the first quarter at Lambeau. For what it's worth, the Packers also have won six straight in this series, although the teams obviously only play once every four years.
NFL Free Pick: This opened at 9.5 and I would have much preferred that but don't believe it will drop under double digits now. Give the points. The Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their past four vs. teams with a winning record. They are 2-6 ATS in their past eight on the road. Green Bay is 6-0 ATS in its past six overall.
New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts (+10 In NFL Betting)
Not sure if you remember, but there was this thing called "Deflategate" that dominated the NFL conversation starting after last season's AFC Championship Game in which the Colts alerted the league that the footballs the Patriots were using were under-inflated. That became perhaps the biggest sports story of 2015. Pats QB Tom Brady was suspended four games for that but it was overturned by a federal judge. This would have been his first game back -- can you imagine the hype if that was the case? Still, both teams will be playing to rub the other's face in the turf. The Pats because the Colts tattled on them, and Indy because it has been blown out four times by New England since Andrew Luck entered the league. Last year it was 42-20 Patriots in Indy in the regular season and 45-7 in the AFC title game in Foxborough. And FYI: it was only a 17-7 lead entering the half, when the balls were adjusted. New England outscored the Colts 28-0 after intermission so obviously those balls made no difference. Luck has missed the past two games with a shoulder injury but it would be an upset if he didn't return Sunday. He has been a turnover-machine in those four career losses vs. New England so Luck no doubt will be motivated for a big game.
NFL Free Pick: Take the points. The Colts have covered their past seven at home vs. teams with a winning record.
Carolina Panthers vs. Seattle Seahawks (-7 On NFL Picks)
The clubs are in different divisions of course but they know each other well enough to practically be divisional foes. The Panthers have dropped home regular-season meetings to the Seahawks each of the last three seasons by a total of 13 points -- all three were defensive slugfests (thus I would go 'under' the low total of 40.5 points). Carolina was perhaps the worst division champion in modern NFL history last season but only trailed 14-10 heading into the fourth quarter in Seattle in a divisional-round playoff game before falling 31-17. Kam Chancellor had a key interception return for a score in the fourth quarter. Three key injuries of note here. For Seattle, top running back Marshawn Lynch will return after missing two games, but Pro Bowl linebacker Bobby Wagner likely will have to sit it out. For Carolina, Pro Bowl linebacker Luke Kuechly will return from a concussion that has knocked him out the past three games. Also keep in mind the Panthers come off their bye week.
NFL Free Pick: I loved this when it was under 7 but probably not going to dip under again. Still give the points. Seahawks a much better team at home. They have covered four of the past five meetings.