NFL Picks: Even at a Steep Price the Chiefs are Your Best Bet Against the Bears

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, October 7, 2015 2:27 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2015 2:27 PM UTC

The Bears are fresh off their first victory of the season while the Chiefs have dropped their last 3, yet the NFL odds makers have KC a big favorite. Are they worth our NFL Pick Week 5?

Chicago Bears (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
It’s hard to win when an offense can’t score and the defense can’t stop a score. That is the state of the Chicago Bears as their offense ranks 28th in points scored averaging 17 points per game and their defense is allowing 31.2 points per game good for 31st in the league. The Bears shook off their season long winning drought by capturing a 22-20 victory over the Raiders at Soldier Field last week. The victory did not come easy as Jay Cutler tossed an interception late in the game but thanks to Robbie Gould’s 49-yard field goal the Bears finally got into the win column.

If there is a bright spot for Chicago it would have to be the rushing of Matt Forte who is averaging 4.4 yards per carry and is responsible for the Bears’ 11th ranked rushing attack averaging 123.5 yards per game. In addition, it would come as a surprise to many that the Bears rank 4th in defending the pass allowing 190 yards per game. However, they are a disappointing 24th against the run where they surrender 119.3 yards per contest and must now face Jamaal Charles in his own backyard.


Kansas City Chiefs (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
The Chiefs have borne the brunt of a rugged early schedule with consecutive losses to the Broncos, Packers and the new-look Bengals. Last week Alex Smith threw early and often trying to compete with the high-flying Bengals offense but his 386 yards of passing did his team no good as he was held without a passing touchdown. Cairo Santos was a perfect 7-for7 on his field goals but he was the only player producing points for the Chiefs as they were unable to break the endzone throughout.

Kansas City’s offense has been surprisingly potent when you consider that quarterback Alex Smith is more of a game manager than a game changer. They rank 13th in passing yards and 10th in points scored. However their defense has let them down this season tied for dead last in points allowed averaging 31.2 per game. Jamaal Charles continues to be the bright spot as he is not only a dynamic runner but a lethal weapon as a receiver coming out of the backfield. Charles is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and has four TD’s on the season.


NFL Betting Analysis
There is a reason why the NFL odds makers are hanging the Chiefs as nine point favorites despite the fact they are 1-3 straight up and against the spread. Those who have included them in their NFL picks have no doubt soured on the Red & White and many would be inclined to fade them out of spite. However we cannot let our emotions dictate our bankroll which is why I am advising a play on the Chiefs not because of what they have done but for what they will do on Sunday against a Bears team ill-equipped to stop a talent like Jamaal Charles and the precise targeting of Alex Smith.

While I fully realize Kansas City’s defense has been porous to say the least the Bears may again be without the services of Alshon Jeffrey as the 25-year-old receiver has been plagued by a hamstring injury this season. There is no doubt that Jamaal Charles will tear up this Bears defense which will allow Alex Smith more time to target his primary weapons like Jeremy Maclin (11 catches for 148 yards last week) and the rising talent that is Travis Kelce who was held in check last week by the Cincinnati.

The bottom line here is that KC has too many weapons for a defense that is tied for last in the points allowed category. You could of course counter that the Chiefs’ defense is the one with whom they are tied for that dubious distinction but the KC can score whereas the Bears…not so much.

NFL Pick: Play the Chiefs -9 at GTBets

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