NFL Picks: End Week 16 In The Black With Swinger's Winning Selections

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, December 23, 2015 11:16 PM GMT

Swinger nailed both his side and his total last week but he wants to keep the good vibrations humming as he has plenty of ATS winners this week with four sides and one blockbuster total in his Week 16 NFL picks.

2015 NFL Record (21-28-1 ATS)
What a relief to finally sweep last week. We have had plenty of bad breaks along the way this season but things have a way of evening out and we just knew the Falcons were not only due for a cover but an outright victory and they did just that with a 23-17 road victory over the Jaguars.

But delivering the goods on "sides" this season has not been completely foreign. What has been the bane of our existence has been the totals. We simply cannot seem to pick one but if you listened to my podcast with Jordan Sharp I was adamant that over in the Cardinals/Eagles game was ice cream. Sho' nuff, it was with the teams combining for 57 points and going comfortably over the NFL odds total of 50 and a hook. Let's keep the good mojo alive with our Week 16 NFL picks!

 

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Cowboys vs. Bills
The Dallas Cowboys simply cannot score. Tony Romo is done for the season and Matt Cassel has been banished to the bench in favor of the immortal Kellen Moore who was equally inept as Cassel last week in the Cowboys 19-16 home loss to the Jets. Moore was intercepted three times but did have one touchdown pass to his credit when he hit Dez Bryant for six. Dallas has averaged just 14.4 points per game over the last six weeks!

Buffalo on the other hand is just mediocre enough defensively to be a threat to the Cowboys because just about any team can shut them down at this point in the season. The Bills are ranked 17th in points allowed surrendering 24 per game but we know Dallas is only going to improve that average because if they get more than two touchdowns it will be considered a victory regardless of the final score. The squares will tell you Shady McCoy is out but it ain't no thang because Karlos Williams will be just fine as the featured back.

Tyrod Taylor just handed out 65 inch flat screens to his offensive linemen as Christmas gifts and he will be getting plenty of protection for that money as he torches the Dallas secondary with Sammy Watkins primed for another big day. Factor in that one of the Cowboys' best defensive players linebacker Rolando McClain may not play due to concussion protocol and this looks like a Buffalo blowout.

Here are a few more tidbits to bolster my contention that the Bills will cover the number with ease.

* True home teams are 26-15 ATS in the last 41 Bills games.

* Bills are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss.

* Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in Week 16.

* Cowboys are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.

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NFL Pick: Play the Bills -6
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

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49ers vs. Lions
So here's a situation where we have a modest total of 42.5 and a team like the Lions that can flat out lay the smack down when faced against weak teams just like the one they're playing this Sunday - the woeful San Francisco 49ers. The Lions will score plenty of points in this one which is why they are one of my best bets in Week 16 but aside from that the Niners own the 26th ranked passing defense which should be sweet as honey for Megatron and Detroit's 9th ranked passing attack who dropped 35 on the Saints last week and 45 on the Eagles on Thanksgiving in front of a national audience, both lousy teams when it comes to defending the pass.

Okay so we know the Lions will drop bombs on the Niners but we need San Francisco to score a bit of their own as well. Well of course they will, the Lions are ranked 28th in points allowed and even a team as woeful as the Niners can get a few TD's which is all we will need to go over the posted total in this one.

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NFL Pick: Over 42.5 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

 

The Woodman’s Corner (11-4 ATS)
Another lock-line winner in the bag last week as the Woodman is just showing off at this point and proving he is a multifaceted handicapper who is no longer confining himself strictly to underdogs. This bookie busting baron is a one man wrecking crew who picks his spots and fires away, hitting at an astounding 73 percent this season. Last week he nailed the favored Bengals over the Niners in San Francisco and this week he is reversing course and going back to his beloved big dogs, proving great minds do think alike because we both love the St. Louis Rams +14.5 (-135) at 5Dimes.

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NFL Pick: Rams +14.5
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

 

Honorable Mentions
If the Bills are my five-star selection then the picks below are solid fours. They will be included in my official record and make sure you tail these bad boys.

Detroit Lions -9 (-120) at YouWager over the 49ers.
The Rams +14.5 (-135) at Seattle which is a line being offered only at 5Dimes
The Ravens +10.5 at Bovada against the Steelers.