NFL Picks: Early Look at the Week 6 Odds on Offer in Vegas

Kevin Stott

Friday, October 3, 2014 3:14 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 3, 2014 3:14 PM UTC

Here are your NFL Week 6 Early Odds, fresh off the presses from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook—formerly the LVH—here in Sin City and a couple of free NFL picks you may like before Week 5 has even kicked off.

Thursday, October 9, 2014
Indianapolis Colts -2 at Houston Texans (CBS, 8:25 p.m. ET/5:35 p.m. PT)

QB Andrew Luck and the Colts (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS heading into Week 5 vs. Ravens on Sunday) are #1 in the NFL in Scoring (34.0 ppg), #1 in Passing Yards (321.0 ypg) and are tied for the top spot in the league in Total Offense with the Falcons (444.0 ypg), so the oddsmakers at the SuperBook are showing some respect here to Indianapolis. But this is an AFC South clash and it’s at Reliant Stadium in Houston (3-1 L4 ATS at Home vs Colts) where the Texans (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, at Dallas on Sunday) and JJ Watt will definitely be ready to dance with the Horseshoes. Some trends that point to the Colts here are their 3-0 ATS L3 vs. Houston and then a Thursday (10-1 SU) barrage of Indianapolis-dominant trends including an absolutely amazing 9-1 ATS mark on Thursday nights (6-1 ATS Away, 7-1 ATS Favorite and 5-1 ATS vs. its own Division).


Sunday, October 12, 2014
Denver Broncos -6 at New York Jets (CBS, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)

Peyton Manning and the AFC Champion Broncos (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS at NY Jets on Sunday) are 3-1 ATS L4 and 4-1 ATS L5 Away against the Jets (1-3 SU, 0-3-1 ATS, vs. Cardinals on Sunday) in a game here between two teams who had failed to win their betting backers any money a quarter of the way into the NFL season (heading into Week 5).


Pittsburgh Steelers -1½ at Cleveland Browns (1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
Yet another Road Favorite on this Week 6 rotation, this AFC North hoedown at Cleveland Browns Stadium in Cleveland is properly lined as despite the Browns (1-2 SU, 2-0-1 ATS, at Titans on Sunday) gradual improvement lately and success covering the point spread so far, the Steelers (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS, at Jaguars on Sunday) are 3-0 ATS L3 against them, including 27-11 (+2½) at Cleveland and 20-7 (-9½) at Pittsburgh last season and have historically had Cleveland’s number. This one’s probably just best watched or maybe a look at the Under when the Total is released will be warranted.


Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans -7 (1 p.m.ET/10 a.m. PT)
This AFC South game may not be the sexiest game on the NFL Week 6 schedule, but it does seem to provide a decent betting opportunity to lay the 7 points and take the host Titans (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, vs. Browns on Sunday) early against a team that will be on the road here at LP Field in Nashville and which still hadn’t covered a game heading into Week 5—the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS, vs. Titans on Sunday). Jacksonville also has the worst Defense (allowing 451.3 ypg), allows the most points per game (38.0)—while averaging the least (14.5)—as well as the worst Time of Possession (25.9 mpg) in the NFL. Stink, stank, stunk. Enough said.

Free NFL Pick: Titans -7


Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons -3 Even (1 p.m.ET/10 a.m. PT)
This will be an extremely important game for both teams as both headed into Week 5 with 2-2 straight up (SU) records and play in divisions (NFC North, NFC South) where every win will matter. The Bears (2-2 ATS, at Panthers on Sunday) and the Falcons (2-2 ATS, at NY Giants on Sunday) also both have very tough road games leading up to this meeting next Sunday in Atlanta at the Georgia Dome and both could very well enter this contest with disappointing 2-3 records. The Bears are 5-2 ATS over their L7 against the Dirty Birds overall.


Green Bay Packers -3 at Miami Dolphins (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
 Aaron Rodgers (28-24 ATS Away) and the Packers (2-2 SU, 1-2-1 ATS, vs. Vikings on TNF) haven’t looked like the Super Bowl (Packers 16/1 to win Super Bowl XLIX, Ladbrokes) contenders many experts tabbed preseason, but luckily for the Cheeseheads they’re in the Sunshine State playing the Dolphins (66/1 to Win SB, William Hill) in an interconference game in which the Packers will have 10 days rest after hosting the Vikings on Thursday Night Football (Oct. 2; GB led 35-0 in the 3rd quarter) while the Dolphins will be even more rested, coming in off of an Open Date in Week 5. Green Bay is 5-1 ATS their L5 trips to Miami so this number is spot on but I’d lean to the visitors to barely cover, but it’s not worth deeming a free NFL pick here in this nationally televised game from Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens with the Packers (23.0 PF-24.0 PA into Vikings on TNF) so far more of a question mark than most expected.


Detroit Lions -4 at Minnesota Vikings (1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
A surprising early line in a way and that’s before the news that Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater was out Thursday night against the Packers. Here at TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis next Sunday, the Vikings (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, at Packers on TNF, losing 35-0 in third quarter at press time) will definitely need the game more than will the Lions (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, vs. Bills on Sunday), who could enter this NFC North tilt with an impressive 4-1 record and be surprisingly sitting clean atop the division formerly known as the Black-And-Blue. But the trends favor the hosts and underdog Vikings here as Minnesota is 5-1 L6 ATS against the Lions and 4-0 ATS L4 against the Lions here at Home in Prince’s hometown.


Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals -7 (1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
Just looking at these teams and this line I can tell I want nothing to do with it—two good teams with a fair number posted in a game where anything can and will happen. The Bengals (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, at Patriots on SNF) have been the NFL’s statistical surprise so far and a win this Sunday at New England would open up some more eyes. But we’re talking about this Week 6 game at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati where the upstart Panthers (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, vs. Bears on Sunday) will no doubt need a win over the Bengals (26.7 PF-11.0 PA) whether or not they win or lose against Chicago in Week 5. These two don’t play much so there aren’t many relevant trends worth publishing. A stay away and watch and enjoy type of game.


New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills PK (1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
Tom Brady and the Patriots (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS, vs. Bengals on SNF) looked absolutely awful on Monday Night Football in Kansas City to end Week 4 so righting the ship ASAP has to be head coach Bill Belichick’s priority in this second quarter of the NFL season, and beating an improved AFC East rival like the Bills (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, at Lions on Sunday) will be imperative on the Road here at Ralph Wilson Stadium in Orchard Park. What’s weird for the Patriots is that the Offense is sputtering while the Defense has been leading the way, and this choppy mix won’t get the team where they want to go playing like this. The Patriots are 8-2 L10 against the Bills in Buffalo, and a powerful trend but it’s hard to want to put money on this New England team after watching the way the Chiefs grated them on MNF, although getting the Patriots at PK may look very wise come next week.


Baltimore Ravens -3 Even at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 p.m ET/10 a.m. PT)
The Ravens (along with the Seahawks, Chargers, Bengals and Cardinals) are one of the leagues more impressive teams to me so far this season while the Buccaneers (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, at Saints) have had trouble scoring (18.0 ppg), and, if they lose at New Orleans this Sunday, will probably be out of the NFC South race already. Baltimore (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS, at Colts on Sunday) is pretty nasty at home but beatable on the road given the right opponent but Tampa Bay isn’t that opponent and laying a flat -3 from this distance seems pretty smart as if the Saints blast the Bucs and the Ravens upset the Colts in Naptown, this line will look a lot different come Monday morning. The Ravens are just 1-3 ATS L4 vs. the Bucs but 3-1 ATS L4 here at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. 

Free NFL Pick: Ravens -3 Even


San Diego Chargers -6 at Oakland Raiders (4:05 p.m. ET/1:05 p.m. PT)
This line looks to good to be true but it isn’t as sooner or later people will realize how good this Chargers (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS, vs. NY Jets on Sunday) team really is (their games against the Cardinals and SB champ Seahawks were an education). The lowly Raiders (0-4 SU, 2-2 ATS, Open Date) will be rested coming in here and San Diego is just 3-7 L10 against the Raiders but San Diego is 8-3 ATS L11 here in Oakland where this AFC West meeting is being played ( Coliseum) and this looks like the best bet of the bunch laying less than a TD with a Chargers team led by QB Philp Rivers which could very well win the AFC.

Free NFL Pick: Chargers -6 (BEST BET)


Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks -8½ (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT)
The Super Bowl champion Seahawks (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, at Redskins on MNF) host Tony Romo and the Cowboys (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, vs. Texans on Sunday) at CenturyLink Field in Seattle in an interconference matchup too good not to have on national TV (FOX). Some trends support the visitors here: The Cowboys are 5-2 ATS L7 against the Seahawks and 3-1 ATS L4 here in the Emerald City, but this game is one to probably watch although the hots could win by double digits and surprise nobody.


Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals -6½ (4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT)
The Cardinals (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS, at Broncos) sit tucked quietly away here in the Southwest, hoping nobody will notice how they started the NFL season off 3-0—beating both the Chargers and the 49ers—and this line too may seem like a bargain when all is said and done. The Redskins (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS, vs. Seahawks on MNF) are an enigma of sorts, and are a surprising 4-1 ATS L4 here in Glendale at University of Phoenix Stadium, but Arizona is not the same team it was back when those numbers were forged. These birds are for real baby.


New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles -3½ (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT)
 Sunday Night Football in Week 6 will see this NFC East meeting between the host Eagles (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, vs. Rams on Sunday) and the New York Giants (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, vs. Falcons on Sunday) in what could be an entertaining and potentially high-scoring game in the City of Brotherly Love. Both teams were averaging at least 2 TOs per game—Giants 2.0, Eagles 2.3—heading into Week 5 so whomever ends up having the least here in this one may end up on top. The Eagles are 8-3 ATS L11 against the G-Men but just 2-6 ATS L8 here in Philadelphia. A tough call.


Monday, October 13, 2014
San Francisco 49ers -7 at St. Louis Rams (ESPN, 8:20 p.m. ET/5:20 p.m. PT)

The 49ers (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, vs. Chiefs on Sunday) have struggled to start this season and no matter what happens against Kansas City at the new Levi’s Stadium in Week 5, this Week 6 Monday Night Football date with their NFC West counterparts, the St. Louis Rams (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, at Eagles on Sunday) at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis will be crucial for both teams and yet another game probably just left alone from the betting standpoint, although many bet on NFL games just because they’re on TV. St. Louis is anemic on Offense (18.7 ppg) while San Francisco has been pretty good rushing the ball (138.5 ypc) and controlling Time of Possession (34.3 mpg). Still, laying a TD seems right on and this number probably won’t change much from the opening line we’ll see next week. The Rams are 3-1 ATS L4 against the 49ers here at Home in the Gateway City.

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