NFL Picks: Early Look at the Week 5 Odds on Offer in Vegas

Kevin Stott

Friday, September 26, 2014 6:51 PM GMT

Many professional and casual sports bettors like to wager on and be aware of NFL odds a week early. With that in mind, here’s our analysis for potential Week 5 picks. 

Thursday, October 2, 2014

Green Bay Packers -8 vs. Minnesota Vikings (CBS, 8:25 p.m. ET)
This NFC North game at Lambeau Field in Green Bay will be really significant for one of these two teams who both head into Week 4 with 1-2 records, meaning one of these two will be 1-3 and in a must-win situation headed in here. Green Bay is at Chicago this Sunday while Minnesota hosts Atlanta. QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are 4-1 ATS L5 against the Vikings in Green Bay.

 

Sunday, October 5, 2014

Carolina Panthers -3 vs. Chicago Bears (FOX, 1 p.m. ET)
Both teams enter Week 4 with 2-1 records but have their work cut out for them with Chicago hosting Green Bay in a crucial NFC North game while Carolina is in Baltimore to face the Ravens in an extremely tough road game, so, both could very well be 2-2 and beat up headed into this contest at Charlotte’s Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers are 3-1-1 ATS L5 against the Bears.

 

Tennessee Titans N/L vs. Cleveland Browns (1 p.m. ET)
With Titans QB Jake Locker (wrist) listed as questionable for Tennessee’s Week 4 game at Indianapolis, the SuperBook hadn’t posted an early line for this AFC interdivisional game at Nashville’s LP Field next Sunday. This Sunday, in Week 4, the Titans face the Colts in Indianapolis while Cleveland will enjoy an Open Date. The Browns are 3-1-1 L5 ATS against the Titans in Tennessee.

 

Philadelphia Eagles -6½ vs. St. Louis Rams (1 p.m. ET)
Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia is the site of this NFC meeting between the Eagles (3-0 into Week 4 at 49ers) and the Rams (1-2), who will be coming off an Open Date in Week 4, and will theoretically “need” the game more than Philadelphia which will be either 4-0 or 3-1. But this game is in the City of Brotherly Love and the Eagles are a powerful 9-1-1 ATS L11 against St. Louis and 5-0-1 ATS L6 at Home against the Rams.

 

New York Giants PK vs. Atlanta Falcons (1 p.m. ET)
The Giants are lucky this NFC game is in East Rutherford (NJ) at MetLife Stadium as the G-Men (58 points) have had trouble scoring points behind QB Eli Manning so far this season while Matt Ryan and the Falcons (103 points) were the highest-scoring team in the NFL headed into Week 4 (NY played Washington on Thursday night while Atlanta is at Minnesota on Sunday). But still, the Falcons are 6-1 ATS their L7 games at the Giants, so it’s easy to see why this game is a Pick'em on NFL odds some 10 days out and why the Falcons may eventually end up being favored in this game.

 

New Orleans Saints -11½ vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 p.m. ET)
This point spread reveals much about the Buccaneers (0-3 SU, 45 PF-95 PA) woeful start and its sputtering offense, the site of the game (the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans) as well as a little desperation from the Saints point of view, as New Orleans is 1-2 heading into Dallas on Sunday (Tampa Bay is in Pittsburgh on Sunday). The Saints are 3-1 ATS L4 against the Bucs and 3-0 ATS L3 here in at Home in The Big Easy but giving Tampa Bay 11½ points in an NFC South game seems like about 2 points too high, especially against a New Orleans team that’s failed to impress yet this season.

Free NFL Pick: Buccaneers +11½

 

Dallas Cowboys -3 vs. Houston Texans (CBS, 1 p.m. ET)
This Lone Star State tussle at AT&T Stadium in Arlington will be equally important to both teams, with both 2-1 heading into Week 4 and Dallas hosting the Saints while the Texans host the surprising Bills. These two teams don’t play often, but the last time they did in 2010, the Cowboys won 27-13 as 2½-point underdogs in Houston. This will be a tough game to handicap from the side, point spread and Total points of view and one of those games where anything could happen and nobody would be surprised.

 

Detroit Lions -6½ vs. Buffalo Bills (1 p.m. ET)
Both teams head into Week 4 with 2-1 records—the Lions are at the Jets on Sunday while the Bills are in Houston—so this game may be a little more important to the Bills who may be at the .500 mark although the Jets could very well beat the Lions (-1½) in East Rutherford and be there themselves. Like the Cowboys-Texans, these two seldom play and when they last met in 2010,  Detroit lost 14-12 in Buffalo as 1½-point underdogs—failing to cover by a mere ½ point.

 

Indianapolis Colts -3½ vs. Baltimore Ravens (1 p.m. ET)
QB Andrew Luck and the Colts are really lucky this game is at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis as playing the Ravens in Baltimore usually isn’t a fun proposition for the visitors. Both the Colts (-7½, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) and the Ravens (-3 Even) are favorites heading into Week 4 but have deceivingly tough opponents on tap in the Titans and Panthers, respectively. So, both could be a little bit beat up. The Colts are an incredible 8-1 ATS L9 vs. Baltimore and 3-0 ATS L3 here at Home in Naptown. But, for some reason, the Ravens look good in this particular situation, especially at that valuable +3½. And in the vast the majority of  years in the above streak, Peyton Manning was the QB in Indianapolis.

Free NFL Pick: Ravens +3½

 

Pittsburgh Steelers -6½ vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1 p.m. ET)
The Steelers are Week 5’s biggest Road Favorite, and with the Jaguars 0-3 straight up (SU) and 0-3 against the point spread (ATS) and Pittsburgh 2-1 heading into Week 4 (Jacksonville is in San Diego while the Steelers are hosting Tampa Bay), it’s easy to see why the visiting Steelers are near-TD favorites here at EverBank Field in Jacksonville. The Jaguars are an impressive 6-2 ATS L8 overall against Pittsburgh and 9-2 ATS L11 here in Jacksonville.  

 

Denver Broncos -7 vs. Arizona Cardinals (4:05 p.m. ET)
Two of the NFL’s stronger teams meet at Sports Authority Field in Denver and both will be coming off bye weeks (Open Dates) in Week 4 so expect an all-out slugfest in the Mile High City next Sunday afternoon. The AFC champion Broncos lost in Seattle to the Seahawks in a rematch of Super Bowl XLVIII in Week 3 while the Cardinals beat the 49ers in Glendale (suburban Phoenix) so both could use the week off. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS L5 against Arizona.

 

San Francisco 49ers -7 vs. Kansas City Chiefs (CBS, 4:25 p.m.)
This line for this Week 5 inter-conference meeting at the new Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara (suburban San Francisco) seems like it should be a bit higher but the way the 49ers have sluggishly started the season is the reason it’s only at -7. Both are 1-2 heading into Week 4—San Francisco hosts the Eagles on Sunday afternoon while Kansas City hosts the Patriots on Monday night—and both could possibly be a dreaded 1-3 if all goes wrong. The 49ers are 3-1 ATS L4 against the Chiefs at Home but San Francisco is 0-3 ATS L3 Overall against Kansas City as these two teams haven’t played here in The City By The Bay in well over a decade.

 

San Diego Chargers -6½ vs. New York Jets (4:25 p.m. ET)
The Chargers are one of the strongest teams in the NFL this season and early games against the Cardinals, Super Bowl champion Seahawks and upstart Bills have only made this team’s teeth sharper. Here against the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets, San Diego will likely be coming off a Week 4 coast against the lowly Jaguars while the Jets play host to the Lions and could suddenly find themselves at 1-3 after a Week 1 win. But despite the fact that the trends favor the visiting Jets—the Chargers are 2-6 ATS L8 overall against New York and 1-4 L5 at Home against the Jets—San Diego is just playing too good right now not to be laying at least more than a TD against the Jets.

Free NFL Pick: Chargers -6½

 

New England Patriots -3 -120 vs. Cincinnati Bengals (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
This is another great game between two of the AFC’s strongest teams but while the Patriots will have the advantage of having the game being held at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, the Bengals will enjoy the physical advantage here of having a week off (this weekend) while New England will be playing on short rest (5 days) after a MNF game against the Chiefs in Kansas City. The Patriots are 3-1 ATS L4 against Cincinnati.

 

Monday, October 6, 2014
Seattle Seahawks -6 vs. Washington Redskins (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland is the site of this Monday Night Football game between the host Redskins and the Super Bowl champion Seahawks. Washington hosted the Giants on Thursday Night Football (Sept. 25) in the Week 4 opener and will have 10 days rest but Seattle actually has an Open Date, so, the champs last game will actually have been in Week 3 against the Broncos (Sept. 21) in a rematch of Super Bowl XLVIII. The Seahawks are 3-1-1 ATS L5 against the Redskins but Seattle is only 1-3 ATS L4 at Washington. This is a much better Seahawks team than any past statistics or trends reflect.

Free NFL Pick: Seahawks -6