NFL Picks: Early Look at the Week 14 Odds on Offer in Vegas

Kevin Stott

Friday, November 28, 2014 8:18 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 28, 2014 8:18 PM UTC

Here are your NFL Early Lines from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook for Week 14 along with game starting times, Television information, some relevant trends, other useful tidbits and a couple of picks.

Thursday, December 4, 2014
Dallas Cowboys -3 vs. Chicago Bears (NFL Network, 8:25 p.m. ET/5:25 p.m. PT):
The Chicago Bears (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, at Lions Thanksgiving) welcome Tony Romo (28-27-1 ATS Away) and the Dallas Cowboys (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS, vs. Eagles Thanksgiving) to the Windy City and Soldier Field in this Thursday Night Football game which will carry more meaning for the visitors. Dallas is an impressive 4-1 ATS on the Road this season, while the Bears (4-4 SU on Thursday nights) are 2-5 ATS lifetime on Thursday nights. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook’s NFL 2014 Games of the Year, released each summer, had this game lined at -3, so absolutely no change in the line perception-wise, despite Chicago’s malaise and a semi-nice season so far from America’s Team. The Bears are 3-0 ATS L3 against the Cowboys and Chicago is 3-1 ATS L4 against Dallas here at Home.


Sunday, December 7, 2014
Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins -3 Even (CBS, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT):

One of the most impressive teams this NFL season, the Miami Dolphins (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS, at Jets Monday Night Football) welcome the Baltimore Ravens (7-4 SU, 6-4-1 ATS, vs. Chargers Sunday) to Sun Life Stadium in Miami for this AFC interdivisional tilt which both teams will really need to win. The Ravens are 4-0 ATS L4 against the Dolphins and Baltimore is 3-0 ATS L3 here at Miami, but this is a better Dolphins team then the one that made those ugly trend numbers, something to always be considered when applying recent relevant trends to games occurring in the present day.


Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals -3½ (CBS, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT):
This massive AFC North game at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati sees the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS, vs. Saints Sunday) muscling up against the Cincinnati Bengals (7-3-1 SU, 6-4-1 ATS, vs. Buccaneers Sunday) in a situation where a loss could in this particular game could be the difference in the end between making the postseason or not and one which could leave the losers reeling with just 3 weeks left in the regular season after this Week 14 play. Pittsburgh has pretty much owned Cincinnati lately, as the Steelers are 6-2 ATS L8 overall against the Bengals and Pittsburgh is 11-2 ATS L13 here in Cincinnati. These two will also meet in the regular season finale in Pittsburgh (Dec. 28).

NFL Pick: Steelers +3½


Indianapolis Colts -3 vs. Cleveland Browns (CBS, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT):
FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland is the site of this AFC interdivisional game between the host Browns (7-4 SU, 6-3-2 ATS, at Bills Sunday) and Andrew Luck (13-10 ATS Away) and the Indianapolis Colts (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS, vs. Redskins Sunday) in another game which will be big for both teams, but probably more important for the host Browns with the Colts 2 games up in the AFC South heading into Week 13 play. The last time these two met (2012), the Colts (4-1 ATS Away season) won 17-13 in Naptown as 1-point Favorites.


Houston Texans -3½ vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (CBS, 1 p.m./10 a.m. PT):
Everbank Field in Jacksonville is the site of the AFC South meeting between the host Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10 SU, 2-8-1 ATS, vs. Giants Sunday) and the Houston Texans (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS, vs. Titans Sunday) which will mean everything to Houston as a   loss would pretty much end any playoff hopes and also carry the stigma of losing to the lowly Jaguars. Not cool. The Jaguars are 3-0 ATS L3 against the Texans. These two will meet again in the Week 16 regular season finale in Houston also.


New York Giants vs. Tennessee Titans PK (FOX, 1 p.m./10 a.m. PT):
The Tennessee Titans (2-9 SU, 3-7-1 ATS, at Eagles Sunday) welcome the New York Giants (3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS, at Jaguars Sunday) to LP Field in Nashville for this interconference game between two teams either wishing the 2014 NFL season could start again or possibly end a little bit sooner. The Titans are a remarkable 5-0 ATS L5 against the Giants and Tennessee is 3-0 ATS the L3 here at Home against the G-Men. Of note, these two teams are a combined 7-14-1 ATS. This is one to probably avoid at the betting window as well as on the television.


Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints -6½ (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT):
The New Orleans Saints (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS, at Steelers Sunday) welcome the Carolina Panthers (3-7-1 SU, 6-5 ATS, at Vikings Sunday) to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in The Big Easy for this crucial NFC South showdown and if New Orleans (2-4 ATS Home) loses at Pittsburgh and Carolina can beat the Vikings in Minnesota this weekend (Week 13), the Panthers will be 4-7-1 SU while the Saints will suddenly be at 4-8 and looking for a pacifier. The Panthers are 3-2 ATS L5 against the Saints and Carolina is 10-3 ATS L13 here in New Orleans but those were stronger and more confident Panthers‘ squads and Carolina lost 28-10 to Drew Brees (55-45-2 ATS Home) and the Saints as 3-point Underdogs earlier this season in Charlotte.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions -9 (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT):
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-9 SU, 4-7 ATS, vs. Bengals Sunday) head north to the the Motor City and Ford Field to face the Detroit Lions (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS, vs. Bears Thanksgiving) in a game the young Lions will need in the win column as well as for their heads. The Lions are an impressive 8-2 ATS L10 against Tampa Bay but both teams struggle scoring so that 9 points may actually be a bit larger than it looks from this distance and at this point in Time. Expect Detroit to be nervous for this one.


St. Louis Rams vs. Washington Redskins PK (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT):
FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland is the site of this NFC interdivisional meeting between the host Washington Redskins (3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS, at Colts Sunday) and the St. Louis Rams (4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS, vs. Raiders Sunday) in a pretty meaningless game in the whole scheme of things. The Rams are 5-1 ATS L6 vs. Washington and St. Louis is 4-1 ATS L5 on the Road against the Redskins.

NFL Pick: Rams Pick  


New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings -5½ (CBS, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT):
The Minnesota Vikings (4-7 SU, 6-5 ATS, vs. Panthers Sunday) will gladly open the doors of TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis to play the lost New York Jets (2-9 SU, 2-8-1, vs. Dolphins Monday Night Football) in a game between franchises that really need to get a decent QB in camp in which to build a solid team around and a game with virtually no meaning except maybe for bettors and scouts. The Jets are a surprising 6-0 ATS L6 vs. Minnesota and New York AFC is 3-0 ATS the L3 here in Prince’s hometown. I’ll throw into the strong wind on this one. Pick: Vikings -5½


Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos -9½ (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET/1:05 p.m. PT):
Peyton Manning and the defending AFC champion Denver Broncos (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS, at Chiefs Sunday Night Football) host the Buffalo Bills (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS, vs. Browns Sunday) at Sports Authority Field in the Mile High City in an AFC interdivisional game which will matter a little bit more for the hosts. The Bills are 3-0 ATS L3 against the Broncos but that was before Uncle Peyton  set up shop in Colorado.

NFL Pick: Broncos -9½


Kansas City Chiefs vs. Arizona Cardinals -3 Even (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET/1:05 p.m. PT):
University of Phoenix Stadium in the Phoenix suburb of Glendale is the site of this intriguing game between the host Arizona Cardinals (9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS, at Falcons Sunday) and the feisty Kansas City Chiefs (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS, vs. Broncos Sunday Night Football) in a game which will likely be a little more important for the visitors. The Cardinals are 3-1 ATS L4 here at Home against Kansas City.


San Francisco 49ers -7½ at Oakland Raiders (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT):
The San Francisco 49ers (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS, vs. Seahawks Thanksgiving) head across The Bay to Coliseum to face the notorious Oakland Raiders (1-10 SU, 6-5 ATS, at Rams Sunday) in an interconference game which the visitors will definitely need to win and a game which could be deceivingly hard for San Francisco and QB Colin Kaepernick (13-6-2 ATS Road), although the 49ers are 4-2 ATS on the Road so far this season. The Raiders are 3-0 ATS L3 against San Francisco and this could end up being a surprisingly entertaining fare but it’s always hard to tell when the Black-and-Silver are going to play a good game. The SuperBook’s NFL 2014 Games of the Year opened this baby at 49ers -8½ over the summer, so, just a slight change in what you could have gotten or laid (points, fool).


Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles -1½ (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT):
The biggest game of the weekend sees the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS, at 49ers Thanksgiving) fly east to the City of Brotherly Love and Lincoln Financial Field to dance with the host Philadelphia Eagles (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS, at Cowboys Thanksgiving) in an interconference showdown that should be absolutely huge for both teams, maybe more so for the Seahawks if they lost at San Francisco on Thursday. This looks to me like a very bad spot on the schedule for Seattle, but the trends do favor them: The Seahawks are 3-1 ATS L4 vs. the Eagles and Seattle is 3-0 ATS L3 here in Philadelphia. Don’t miss this one. The SuperBook’s NFL 2014 Games of the Year opened this one up exactly where they set it right now, at Eagles -1½.


New England Patriots -4 at San Diego Chargers (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT):
The team that looks like it’s the most consistent in the NFL and the one with maybe the best chance at getting to this year’s Super Bowl—the New England Patriots (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS, at Packers Sunday)—head west to Qualcomm Stadium to play the host San Diego Chargers (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS, at Ravens Sunday), a team which looked like it might contend for the AFC title early on but now one reverting back to the team it knows how best to be...above average. The Patriots are 9-4 ATS L13 in this series and should cover the point spread at that number, despite the flight, different time zone and potential lack of desperation in terms of looking for a/the win. Two notes: The Patriots (7-12 ATS Home on Sunday nights) had gone Over the Total in 8 of its 11 games heading into Week 13’s showdown in Green Bay; and, the SuperBook’s opened this game at Patriots -1 in its NFL 2014 Games of the Year, so, you can see what The Smarts think about how the Chargers have played so far this season as well what they think of Tom Brady and the machine-like Patriots. Vroooom.

NFL Pick: Patriots -4



Monday, December 8, 2014
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers -11 (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT):

The Green Bay Packers (8-3 SU, 6-4-1 ATS, vs. Patriots Sunday) have ordered extra holiday cheese curds for this Monday Night Football date with the Atlanta Falcons (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS, at Cardinals Sunday)—who were actually tied for first place in the laughingstock NFC South with the Saints heading into this week’s (Week 13) round of games with that pathetic 4-7 record. The Packers are just 7-8 ATS as Home Favorites on MNF (Falcons 3-5 ATS as Road Underdog) but with QB Aaron Rodgers (32-16-3 ATS Home) and WRs Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson, the Pack have been absolutely smashing teams here at Home at Lambeau Stadium this season (4-0-1 ATS). And although the Packers are 0-5 L5 ATS against the Falcons here in Green Bay, for my NFL picks this week I’ll stick with the much better team, roster and QB at Home and the one without an ATS loss yet on home soil. Call a doctor. The SuperBook’s NFL 2014 Games of the Year opened this game at Packers -10 on the NFL odds.

NFL Pick: Packers -11


NFL Advanced Line Picks: Steelers +3½, Rams PK, Vikings -5½, Broncos -9½, Patriots -4, Packers -11

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