NFL Picks: Early Look at the Week 13 Odds on Offer in Vegas

Kevin Stott

Thursday, November 20, 2014 9:22 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 20, 2014 9:22 PM UTC

Here are your NFL Early odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook for Week 13 including useful information and picks against these early points spreads.

Thursday, November 27, 2014

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions -6½ (CBS, 12:30 p.m. ET/9:30 a.m. PT)
The Detroit Lions (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS, vs Patriots Sunday) ATS welcome their NFC North rivals the Chicago Bears (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS, vs. Buccaneers Sunday) to Ford Field for this Thanksgiving Day (USA) kickoff game from The Motor City. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook’s NFL 2014 Games of the Year, released each summer, had this game lined at -7, so not much has changed perception-wise. Detroit has owned the Bears lately, as the Lions are 7-1 ATS L8 against Chicago and the Turkey Day-regular Detroit is 3-1 ATS L4 here at Home against the Bears. Lean Lions.


Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys -3 (FOX, 4:30 p.m. ET/1:30 p.m. PT)
This NFC East showdown is the perfect holiday afternoon appetizer as Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys (7-3 SU, 6-4 SU, at Giants Sunday night) host the vastly improved Philadelphia Eagles (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS, vs. Titans Sunday) in Big D in a huge game for both the division and the NFC. The SuperBook’s NFL 2014 Games of the Year opened this game at (Cowboys) -2½, so, not much change again. The Eagles are 3-1 L4 ATS vs. the Cowboys, and Philadelphia plays Dallas again at Home in Week 15 in what will likely be an even more important encounter for both teams.


Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers -1½ (NBC 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT)
The Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS, vs. Cardinals Sunday) head south to San Francisco to face the 49ers (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, vs. Redskins) in a massive NFC West showdown and Thanksgiving main course...but who thought the Cardinals (9-1) would have the leg up on both, let alone this early on in the NFL season? Head coach Pete Carroll (48-32-1 ATS) and the Seahawks seem to be devolving a bit this season and this should be a tight, low-scoring, hard-hitting affair where TOs matter.  The SuperBook’s NFL 2014 Games of the Year opened this game at San Francisco -1, so again, not much change from the oddsmakers numbers from some 5 months ago. The Seahawks are 5-0 ATS L5 vs. the 49ers and these two will meet again in Week 15 in Seattle in another monster game.


Sunday, November 30, 2014

Washington Redskins vs. Indianapolis Colts -9½ (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis is the site of this interconference meeting between the improved and host Indianapolis Colts (6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS, vs. Jaguars Sunday) and QB Andrew Luck (15-6-1 ATS Home) and the eroding Washington Redskins (3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS, at 49ers Sunday). The Redskins are 4-1-1 ATS L6 against the Colts and the last time these two met was back in 2010 where Indianapolis won 27-24 as 3-point Favorites, pushing the betting number.


Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans -6½ (CBS, 1 p.m./10 a.m. PT)
The Houston Texans (5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS, vs. Bengals Sunday) play host to the Tennessee Titans (2-8 SU, 3-6-1 ATS, at Eagles Sunday) in this AFC South tilt at NRG Stadium in Houston in a rematch of Week 8 where Houston won 30-16 as 3½-point Favorites in Nashville. Houston was 0-5 ATS as a Home Favorite last season, but the Texans are now 6-1 ATS in their L7 against Tennessee and Houston is 3-1 ATS L4 vs. the Titans here at Home.

NFL pick: Texans -6½


Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills -1½ (CBS, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
At press time, Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo was inundated with snow and Week 12’s game with the Jets was in jeopardy of being postponed with the club offering fans $10/hour and tickets to the game to anyone who could come and help shovel out The Ralph. Welcome to 2014, bubba. Anyway, back to The Future and Week 13’s meeting between the visiting Cleveland Browns (6-4 SU, 5-3-2 ATS, at Falcons Sunday) and the host Bills (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS, vs. Jets Sunday), a game probably more meaningful for Cleveland. The Browns beat the Bills, 37-24 as 3½-point Favorites last season in Cleveland so Buffalo may have some revenge in mind but do they have the horses and will to pull off a win here? Expect weather to be factor.


San Diego Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens -3½ (CBS, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
Both the host Baltimore Ravens (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, at Saints Monday night) and the San Diego Chargers (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS, vs. Rams Sunday) will need the win here in this Week 13 interdivisional AFC battle at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore while the loser’s playoff hopes could be dealt a serious blow, depending of course what transpires in Week 12 for the two. Baltimore was 4-2 as a Home Favorite last season and is an impressive 4-1 ATS this in that same role this year. In short, the Ravens are a pretty good team to bet on at Home. Baltimore is 5-2 ATS L7 vs. the Chargers.

NFL pick: Ravens -3½


New York Giants -3 -120 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
These two teams were hoping for better things this season. The Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9 SU, 2-7-1 ATS, at Colts Sunday) host the New York Giants (3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS, vs. Cowboys Sunday night) at Everbank Field in Jacksonville in a low-profile interconference game in the Sunshine State. These two don’t meet that often, but the Jaguars are 4-1 ATS L5 vs. the Giants. Second-year Jacksonville head coach Gus Bradley was an anemic 7-17-22 ATS heading into Week 12’s game at Indianapolis.


Cincinnati Bengals -3½ vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (CBS, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
The NFC’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS, at Bears Sunday) welcome the AFC’s Cincinnati Bengals (6-3-1 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, at Texans Sunday) to Raymond James Stadium for this game which will probably only mean something to the visitors although the way the NFC South has been this season, maybe Tampa can rally from a 2-8 mark, win the division, host a playoff game and then shock the galaxy and beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl. A girl can dream, right? The Buccaneers are 3-0 ATS L3 against the Bengals, but these two don’t play much. The last time they did, in 2010, Tampa won 24-21 as 6½-point Underdogs and with rookie WR Mike Evans, just might be able to pull off the upset at Home here.


Oakland Raiders vs. St. Louis Rams -7 (CBS, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
The Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis is the site of this interconference meeting between the visiting Oakland Raiders (0-10 SU, 5-5 ATS, vs. Chiefs Thursday night) and the resilient St. Louis Rams (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS, at Chargers Sunday). The Rams are 3-0 ATS L3 vs. the Raiders and although this is a meaningless game, expect St. Louis to play extremely hard like they always do under head coach Jeff Fisher (22-20 ATS) and find a way to cover the point spread.

NFL pick: Rams -7


New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
Both teams here, the host Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS, Open Date) and the New Orleans Saints (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS, vs. Ravens Monday night) will need the win here at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, but the Steelers will be rested and have the homefield advantage and have been playing well. Pittsburgh has held the edge in this series betting-wise of late as the Steelers are 3-1-1 L5 ATS against the Saints and Drew Brees (39-29-4 ATS Underdog). Of note, this is only the second time this season New Orleans will be lined as an Underdog (+1½ Week 7 at Detroit).


Carolina Panthers vs. Minnesota Vikings -1½ (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
The Minnesota Vikings (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS, vs. Packers Sunday) find themselves in the now rare position of being favored in a football game here at TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis against the visiting Carolina Panthers (3-7-1 SU, 6-5 ATS, Open Date) next weekend. The Panthers will come in off their Bye Week and will be well rested while Minnesota will be coming off a game against the potential Super Bowl winners this season, the Green Bay Packers, and may be a little beat up. My gut says the Panthers are a better team than Minnesota and that this should be closer to a Pick situation. Carolina smashed the Vikings (35-10) in just this situation last season—at Minnesota as 2½-point Favorites—and could probably beat the hosts by double digits again if everything goes just right.

NFL pick: Panthers +1½


Arizona Cardinals PK vs. Atlanta Falcons (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET/1:05 p.m. PT)
The Georgia Dome in Atlanta is the site of this interdivisional game between the team with the best record in the NFL, the Arizona Cardinals (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS, at Seahawks Sunday) and the host Atlanta Falcons (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS, vs. Browns Sunday) in a game the hosts will no doubt need more than a team sitting with just 1 loss heading into Week 12. The Cardinals are 3-1 ATS L4 vs. the Falcons and are obviously the better team and the lean here.


New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers -3½ (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT)
The Regular Season Game of the Year here could also be a Super Bowl preview and will get the kind of ratings networks dream of a chilly fall afternoon. The Green Bay Packers (7-3 SU, 6-3-1 ATS, at Vikings Sunday) and Lambeau Field in Green Bay set the perfect stage for an interconference meeting of powerhouses—as well as legendary QBs (Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady)—as the New England Patriots (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS, vs. Lions Sunday) come calling. The Packers are an impressive 5-1-1 ATS L7 against New England but this one is another probably best just watched although siding with the Favorites and the Over will be tempting.


Denver Broncos -2½ vs. Kansas City Chiefs (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT) 
Some games jump out as Stay-Aways to me and this AFC West showdown is one that does just that. Best to just sit back, watch and enjoy. But it’s on Sunday Night Football, where Overs were a crazy 10-1 heading into Week 12, so most people will find a way to get action on this game no matter how tight it could be between Peyton Manning and the AFC champion Denver Broncos (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS, vs. Dolphins Sunday) and the upstart Kansas City Chiefs (7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS, at Raiders Thursday night) at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The SuperBook’s NFL 2014 Games of the Year opened this game at Broncos -3½.


Monday, December 1, 2014

Miami Dolphins -3½ vs. New York Jets (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT)
The Miami Dolphins (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, at Broncos on Sunday) have shown promise this season, and are still in the playoff race, so this Monday Night Football date with the host New York Jets (2-8 SU, 2-7-1 ATS, at Bills Sunday, Snow willing) will mean something to The Fish and may be worth hooking at taking on this early Advanced Line price (-3½). The Dolphins are 3-1 ATS L4 against AFC New York and 5-1 ATS L6 Away, so these NFL odds support backing Miami here at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford. The SuperBook’s NFL 2014 Games of the Year opened this game at Miami -3½, so again, no difference. These two will play again in Miami on the final week of the regular season (Dec. 28).

NFL pick: Dolphins -3½

ADVANCED NFL PICKS: Texans -6½, Ravens -3½, Rams -7, Panthers +1½, Dolphins -3½

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