NFL Picks: Early Look at the Week 12 Odds on Offer in Vegas

Kevin Stott

Friday, November 14, 2014 9:07 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 14, 2014 9:07 PM UTC

Here are your NFL Early Lines from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook here in Sin City for Week 12 along with game starting times, TV information, trends, picks and some other either useful or useless tidbits.

Thursday, November 20, 2014
Kansas City Chiefs -6½ vs. Oakland Raiders (NFL Network, 8:25 p.m. ET/5:25 p.m. PT)

Meetings between the Kansas City Chiefs (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS, vs. Seahawks Sunday) and the Oakland Raiders (0-9 SU, 4-5 ATS, at Chargers Sunday) used to really be a big deal back when they were both in the AFL and for awhile after the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, but for decades this series seems to be a dud despite some decent teams for both over the past four decades or so. Here at Coliseum in Oakland in this AFC West game, the Raiders may still be looking for their first win of the season and if they do lose at San Diego in Week 11. If so, then Oakland could be on a 17-game losing streak heading into this Week 12 matchup. The Chiefs are 9-2 ATS L11 at Oakland and the way they have been playing this season it would be hard to bet against them in this situation, even laying points on the Road. The SuperBook’s 2014 NFL Games of the Year odds—released in the summer—had the Chiefs open up as slight 1½ Favorites, so you can see in the point spread how bad the Raiders still are and how much Kansas City has improved in the eyes of the oddsmakers. But if the Silver-and-Black are ever going to end their losing skid, it will in a game just exactly like this. And noteworthy: Favorites were 7-3 ATS on Thursday Night Football while Overs were a mind-boggling 24-7 in primetime TV games heading into Week 11.


Sunday, November 23, 2014
Cleveland Browns vs. Atlanta Falcons -1½ (CBS, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)

The Georgia Dome in Atlanta is the site of this interconference game between the host Falcons (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS, at Panthers Sunday) and the upstart Cleveland Browns (6-3 SU, 5-2-2 ATS, vs. Texans Sunday) in a game where Browns WR Josh Gordon becomes eligible after serving his suspension—a very nice addition to an already exciting and pretty surprising Cleveland squad. These two just don’t play enough to have any relevant trends to clog your brains with, but the last time they met (2010), the Falcons won 20-10 as 3-point favorites at Cleveland. Much has changed since then.


Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles -11½ (CBS, 1 p.m./10 a.m. PT)
11½? Yes, 11½. It’s definitely surprising to see a double-digit line in this interconference game between the host Philadelphia Eagles (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS, at Packers Sunday) and the Tennessee Titans (2-7 SU, 2-6-1 ATS, vs. Steelers Monday night), but the Titans have dipped and the Eagles are exceeding most people’s expectations. The Eagles are 0-3 ATS L3 against the Titans but Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS L5 here at Home at Lincoln Financial Field in Nashville.


Detroit Lions vs. New England Patriots -6½ (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts is the site of this exciting matchup and potential Super Bowl preview between the visiting Detroit Lions (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS, at Cardinals Sunday) and the New England Patriots (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS, at Colts Sunday night)—teams with identical SU and ATS records heading into Week 11 and two teams who are riding the waves of much-improved defenses. The Patriots were 7-2 as Home Favorites at Home last season and New England is 5-2 ATS L7 vs. the Lions. Lean homeboys.


Green Bay Packers -7 vs. Minnesota Vikings (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
This NFC North division game between the Green Bay Packers (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS, vs. Eagles Sunday) and the host Minnesota Vikings (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS, at Bears Sunday) at TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis may be a matchup of teams in second and third place in the division but the chasm between the two is huge as one probably has no chance of tasting the postseason while the other could possibly get to and even win the Super Bowl. The Packers won this game here last season 44-31 as 7-point favorites and expect Aaron Rodgers to connect with WRs Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb for TDs in a another romp in Princeville in a game which may seal the Purple People Eaters fate this season.

NFL Pick: Packers -7


Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts -12½ (CBS, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis is the site of this AFC South game few may care about simply because of the Jaguars (1-9 SU, 2-7-1 ATS, Open Date) presence. The Colts (6-3 SU, 7-2, vs. Patriots Sunday night) and QB Andrew Luck (15-5-1 ATS Home) will be coming off a likely tough game against Tom Brady and the Patriots in Week 11 so the hosts could be a bit banged up and a bit unfocused. Could the Jaguars win here? Why not? The NFL is crazy and the world is weird and things we never think could happen end up happening so who knows. But getting 12½ seems like a nice haul in this particular spot on the schedule although if the Colts lose to New England, they could be bitter and this line may open up at -14 Monday.


Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans -1 (CBS, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
This AFC interdivisional dance between the host Texans (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS, at Browns Sunday) and the visiting Cincinnati Bengals (5-3-1 SU, 4-3-1 ATS, at Saints Sunday) at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas—the 4th largest city in the United States—will no doubt be a big game for both teams, maybe more so the Texans, who are 4-1 ATS in their L5 against the Bengals. The Bengals and QB Andy Dalton seem somewhat overrated.

NFL Pick: Texans -1


New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills -4½ (CBS, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
The Buffalo Bills (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS, at Dolphins Thursday night) welcome the New York Jets (2-8 SU, 2-7-1 ATS, Open Date) to Ralph Wilson Stadium and sunny Orchard Park, New York for this AFC East game both teams probably thought would mean a lot more than it does now, although at least for Buffalo it may have some meaning in hanging around in the AFC playoff discussion a little bit longer. When these two met in East Rutherford in Week 8, the Bills rolled 43-23 as 3-point Underdogs, thus the extra spunk in the line which may have been (Bills) -3 before that late-September rout.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Chicago Bears -5½ (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS, at Redskins Sunday) pay a visit to Chicago’s Soldier Field next Sunday to face the woe-is-me Bears (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS, vs. Vikings Sunday) in an interdivisional NFC game few will really care about except the players, fans, fantasy freaks and gamblers. The Buccaneers are 3-0 ATS L3 at Chicago and the Bears were a pathetic 1-11-1 ATS L13 at Home heading into its Week 11 encounter with the Vikings. Fade Da’ Bears.

NFL Pick: Buccaneers +5½


Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks -6½ (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET/1:05 p.m. PT)
Along with Lions-Patriots, one of the two best games on the NFL Week 12 schedule sees the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS, at Chiefs Sunday) play host to the upstart Arizona Cardinals (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS, vs. Lions Sunday) in a huge NFC West showdown at CenturyLink Field in Seattle. The Seahawks will remember that it was the Cardinals who beat them here in the Emerald City last season to blemish the eventual champions then-clean Home slate. The Seahawks are 3-1 ATS L4 at Home against the Cardinals and these two teams will meet again in Week 16 in Glendale in what will surely be another massive game, maybe more so for Seattle and head coach Pete Carroll (48-31-1 ATS).


St. Louis Rams vs. San Diego Chargers -7 (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET/1:05 p.m. PT)
Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego is the site of the interconference matchup between the host Chargers (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, vs. Raiders Sunday) and the St. Louis Rams (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS, vs. Broncos Sunday) who just announced they were scrapping Austin Davis at QB for Shaun Hill. So, besides all the injuries, the Rams also have some issues elsewhere as we head down the stretch. These two don’t get together often and the last time they played (2010), the Rams edged the Chargers, 20-17 as 8½-point Underdogs in St. Louis.


Miami Dolphins vs. Denver Broncos -9½ (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT)
The Miami Dolphins head northwest to Sports Authority Field in Denver, Colorado for this interdivisional AFC meeting between the AFC champion Denver Broncos (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS, at Rams Sunday) and the visiting Miami Dolphins (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, vs. Bills Thursday night) in a game which will probably way more important for The Fish. The Dolphins are an impressive 6-1 ATS L7 vs. the Broncos and Miami is 4-0 ATS L4 here in Denver but all that jazz happened when Peyton Manning wasn’t around so please kindly use those trends for kindling, monsieur.


Washington Redskins vs. San Francisco 49ers -7½ (CBS, 4:25p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT)
The San Francisco 49ers (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, at Giants Sunday) welcome the Washington Redskins (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS, vs. Buccaneers Sunday) to Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara for this NFC interdivisional game that will likely be a must-win for the Niners. The trends favor San Francisco in this one: The 49ers are 5-2-1 ATS L8 and 6-2-1 L9 at Home against the Redskins. And this is a very resilient 49ers team capable of playing good football with its backs up against the proverbial wall. The SuperBook’s 2014 NFL Games of the Year odds on this game was 49ers -7½, so, now you know.


Dallas Cowboys -4 vs. New York Giants (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT)
This NFC East Sunday Night Football game between the improved Dallas Cowboys (7-3 SU, 6-4 SU, Open Date) and the host New York Giants (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS, vs. 49ers Sunday) at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey looked much better on the NFL schedule before the season actually started and now the G-Men have ruined it by being all crappy and stuff. Dallas won the first meeting between these two teams this season, 31-21 as 4-point Favorites in Big D in Week 7 and the Cowboys are 4-1 ATS L5 and 3-1 ATS L4 at East Rutherford. And for a laugh: The SuperBook’s 2014 NFL Games of the Year line on this was Giants -2. Giddy up.

NFL Pick: Cowboys -4


Monday, November 24, 2014
Baltimore Ravens vs. New Orleans Saints -6 (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT)
Monday Night Football heads to The Big Easy for this interconference battle between Drew Brees (54-42-2 ATS Home) and the host Saints (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS, vs. Bengals Sunday) and Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, Open Date), in a game, that despite the records, may actually be more important for the visiting Ravens playing in the hornet’s nest that is the AFC North this season. The SuperBook’s 2014 NFL Games of the Year odds on this opened up (this summer) at New Orleans -7½. And remember that the Over was an incredible 24-7 in primetime (SNF, MNF, TNF) heading into Week 11. The Saints ATS records as Home Favorites is quite intimidating with New Orleans being 9-2-1 ATS over its L13 and at Home (11-1 L12 SU Home) heading into its Week 11 Home meeting with the Bengals. But the Ravens are 5-1 ATS L6 against the Saints and don’t really care Who Dat is after all as they were named after a bird in an Edgar Allan Poe poem. And it’s extremely hard to top that.

NFL Pick: Ravens +6

Bye Week: Panthers, Steelers

Free NFL Picks: Packers -7, Texans -1, Buccaneers +5½, Cowboys -4, Ravens +6

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