NFL Picks: Early Look at the Week 11 Odds on Offer in Vegas

Kevin Stott

Friday, November 7, 2014 8:09 PM GMT

Friday, Nov. 7, 2014 8:09 PM GMT

The NFL Early Lines from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook in Las Vegas provide a first look valuable and often profitable to the astute NFL gambler. Here are the Week 11 numbers and a couple of picks.

Thursday, November 13, 2014
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins -5½ (NFL Network, 8:25 p.m. ET/5:25 p.m. PT)

This AFC East meeting between the host Miami Dolphins (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS, at Lions Sunday) and the Buffalo Bills (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS, vs. Chiefs Sunday) on Thursday Night Football at Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens will likely leave the loser out in the cold in the division race. The Dolphins are 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS on Thursdays while the Bills are 2-2 SU and 2-2 ATS. Buffalo romped in the season’s first meeting in Week 2 at Home, mauling Miami 29-10 as 1½-point Favorites. The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook’s 2014 NFL Games of the Year line (released in the summer) on this was Dolphins -3½. The Bills are 4-1 ATS L4 vs. the Dolphins.


Sunday, November 16, 2014
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns -3 Even (CBS, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)

This AFC interdivisional matchup at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland sees the upstart Browns (5-3 SU, 4-2-2 ATS, at Bengals Thursday night) welcome the Houston Texans (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS, Open Date). The Texans are 4-1 ATS L5 against the Browns and will be rested, coming in off of a Bye week. The last time these two teams played was in 2011 where the Texans pounded the Browns, 30-12 as 10½-point Favorites at Home in Houston.


Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears -5 (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
This NFC North showdown at Soldier Field in Chicago is between the third- and the fourth-place teams in the division—the host and disappointing Chicago Bears (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS, at Packers Sunday night) and the Minnesota Vikings (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS, Open Date). The Vikings will be coming in off a Bye week while the Bears will be coming off a likely rugged encounter with their rival Packers in Green Bay on Sunday Night Football. Minnesota is 3-0 ATS L3 against Chicago but the Vikings are just 1-5 ATS L6 Away here in the Windy City.


Seattle Seahawks -2½ at Kansas City Chiefs (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri is the site of this interconference meeting between the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS, vs. Giants Sunday) and the host Kansas City Chiefs (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS, at Bills Sunday). The Seahawks will probably need this game much more than will the Chiefs, but the trends favor Kansas City here: The Seahawks are just 1-6 ATS L7 against Kansas City and Seattle is a woeful 4-17 ATS L21 Away at Arrowhead. But the Seahawks are a different team in a different conference now.


Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers -3 -120 (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
This NFC South meeting between the visiting Atlanta Falcons (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS, at Tampa Sunday) and the host Carolina Panthers (3-5-1 SU, 5-4 SU, at Eagles Monday night) at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte isn’t the most thrilling game on the Week 11 NFL schedule, but may provide some value with this Panthers team at Home. In this game last season, Carolina smashed the visiting Falcons, 34-10 as 8½-point Favorites and the Panthers are 3-1 ATS in their L4 against Atlanta. Don’t count this team out yet.

NFL Pick: Panthers -3 -120


Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints -5 (CBS, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
The Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans is the site of this interconference game between the host New Orleans Saints (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, vs. 49ers Sunday)—the actual leaders in the NFC South with that 4-4 mark—and the Cincinnati Bengals (5-2-1 SU, 4-3-1 ATS, vs. Browns Thursday night). New Orleans and QB Drew Brees (54-42-2 ATS Home) have always been tough as Home Favorites (21-5 ATS L 4+ seasons), but the Bengals are a perfect 4-0 ATS L4 against the Saints.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins -5½ (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
A stinker of a game, this NFC meeting between the host Washington Redskins (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS, Open Date) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS, vs. Falcons Sunday) sees the last-place team in NFC South dueling the last-place team in the NFC East at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland. Coming off a Bye week, the Redskins will be rested, and Washington beat Tampa Bay 24-22 as 2-point Underdogs in 2012 at Tampa, but this is a tough game to handicap and the Underdogs actually look tempting getting 5½ here although the Bucs offense is incredibly shallow and scores points like it hurts. Probably a stay away.


Denver Broncos -7½ at St. Louis Rams (CBS, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
The Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis, Missouri is the site of this interconference meeting between the AFC champion Denver Broncos (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, at Raiders Sunday) and QB extraordinaire Peyton Manning (69-56-5 ATS Away) and the host St. Louis Rams (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS, at Cardinals Sunday) and new QB Austin Davis in a game which will be much more important to St. Louis. The Rams are 3-1 ATS L4 against Denver.


San Francisco 49ers -3 at New York Giants (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
The SuperBook’s 2014 NFL Games of the Year had the Niners 4-point Favorites, so very little has changed in the oddsmakers and the public’s minds since that line was released this summer. Here at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ, the host Giants (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS, at Seahawks) welcome the San Francisco 49ers (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, at Saints) in an NFC interdivisional dance that will certainly put a big dent in the loser’s playoff hopes. The 49ers are a pathetic 1-7 ATS L8 against the G-Men and San Francisco is just 1-4 ATS L5 here Away at East Rutherford. Both should come in a bit beat-up, off games against the Super Bowl champion Seahawks (Giants) and at New Orleans (49ers). Too tough to call.


Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers -8½ (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET/1:05 p.m. PT)
Qualcomm Stadium in sunny San Diego, California is the site of the AFC West showdown between the visiting Oakland Raiders (0-8 SU, 4-4 ATS, vs. Broncos Sunday) and the fading San Diego Chargers (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, Open Date), who will need this game more than Oakland, which has pretty much been out of the playoff race since Week 1. The Raiders have been ATS winners in this series of late as Oakland is 8-3 ATS L11 overall against the Chargers and 4-1 ATS L5 here on San Diego. The Raiders lost (but covered) 31-28 in Oakland as 7½-point Underdogs back in Week 6.


Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals -3 -120 (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT)
The Cardinals (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS, vs. Rams Sunday) welcome the much-improved Detroit Lions (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, vs. Dolphins Sunday) to University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale (suburban Phoenix) next Sunday in this NFC interdivisional meeting between two teams really playing some impressive football so far this campaign. The trends point toward the Cardinals here as Arizona is 4-1 L5 ATS against Detroit and the Cardinals are a perfect 7-0 ATS L7 here in the Valley of the Sun against the Lions.

NFL Pick: Cardinals -3 -120


Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers -6 (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT)
The Green Bay Packers (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS, vs. Bears Sunday night) are sort of flying under the radar, but this is a team to watch and one which can make some noise in the NFC. In Week 11, the Pack welcome the Philadelphia Eagles (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS, vs. Panthers Monday night) to Green Bay’s Lambeau Field in a what will be a big game for both clubs. The Eagles will come in with one less day of rest, but Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS L5 against the Packers at Lambeau, although the Eagles are 1-3 ATS L4 overall against Green Bay. This one should be very entertaining. The SuperBook’s 2014 NFL Games of the Year line on this was Packers -4.


New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts -1½ (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT)
This high-profile game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Naptown between two powers coming in off Bye weeks opened up at Colts -1½ but was immediately bet up to -2½ (early Wednesday). And, the SuperBook’s 2014 NFL Games of the Year odds had this lined at a Pick ‘Em, so, the Indianapolis Colts (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS, Open Date) and QB Andrew Luck and the prolific offense has really impressed the oddsmakers and whomever bet this Advanced Line up to (Colts minus) 2½. If trends could actually disagree with a bet or bets or line movement, the trend here would strongly disagree with the line—and back New England (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS, Open Date)—the bet(s) and that early movement as the Patriots are an incredible 16-3 ATS L19 at Indianapolis. Sold.

NFL Pick: Patriots +2½


Monday, November 17, 2014
Pittsburgh Steelers -4 at Tennessee Titans (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT)
Monday Night Football serves up this AFC interdivisional clash between the visiting and Favorite Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, at Jets Sunday) and the host Tennessee Titans (2-6 SU, 2-5-1 ATS, at Ravens Sunday) at LP Field in Nashville. These two teams have played every year since 2008 with Tennessee winning and covering the last 2 meetings as 5½- and 6-point Underdogs.

Bye Week: Ravens, Cowboys, Jaguars, Jets.

NFL Picks: Panthers -3, Cardinals -3, Patriots +2½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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