The NFL Early Lines from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook in Las Vegas provide a first look valuable and often profitable to the astute NFL gambler. Here are the Week 10 numbers and a couple of picks.
Thursday, November 6, 2014
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals -5 (NFL Network, 8:25 p.m. ET/5:25 p.m. PT)
This AFC North showdown could be a huge game for the visiting Cleveland Browns (4-3 SU, 4-1-2 ATS, vs. Buccaneers Sunday) if they can find a way to win at Paul Brown Stadium and beat the Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-1 SU, 4-3 ATS, vs. Jaguars Sunday) in the most competitive division in the AFC. The SuperBook’s 2014 NFL Games of the year odds, released every summer, opened Cincinnati as 7½-point Favorites, so, the Browns have improved a bit in the minds of both oddsmakers and the public. The Bengals are 1-3-1 ATS over their L5 games vs. the Browns.
Sunday, November 9, 2014
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Dallas Cowboys -10½, London, England (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
The NFL’s experiment of playing some games across the pond continues here as the USA exports both one of the NFL’s worst teams, the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS, at Bengals Sunday), and “America’s Team,” the Dallas Cowboys (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS, vs. Cardinals) in an international inter-conference game which will likely do little to sell the product in the United Kingdom. (And why would Brits give a rip about American football in the middle of World football/soccer season anyway? Hello, Mr. Goodell, are you in there?) The Jaguars are 3-1 ATS L4 against the Cowboys.
Miami Dolphins vs. Detroit Lions -3½ (CBS, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
This will actually be a more important inter-conference game for the visiting Miami Dolphins (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, vs Chargers Sunday) than it will for the host Detroit Lions (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, Open Date) in the Motor City’s Ford Field. But although the Fish may need it more, they’ll be coming off a game against the Chargers while the upstart Lions will be rested and coming off their Bye Week. The last time they played was in 2010 in Miami where the Lions prevailed, 34-27 as 3½-point Underdogs. The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS L5 against Detroit.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills at PK (CBS, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo is the site of the AFC meeting between the visiting Kansas City Chiefs (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS, vs. Jets Sunday) and the surprising Buffalo Bills (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS, Open Date)—like the Lions and Dolphins, two teams playing pretty well in the context of recent past seasons. The Bills will be rested here, coming of a Bye Week and were 5-2 as Home Favorite the L2 years but are just 1-3 ATS in that role so far this season, failing to cover against the Vikings, Patriots and Chargers. These teams have actually played 6 straight seasons, with the visiting Chiefs winning 23-13 last season as 4½-point Underdogs.
San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints -3 (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
One of few potentially entertaining games in a week pretty much loaded with many turds and six teams with Open Dates, this NFC showdown between the visiting San Francisco 49ers (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, vs. Rams Sunday) and QB Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS, at Panthers Thursday night) at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in The Big Easy, in a game the hosts may need more if they lose to Carolina in Week 9. Of note, the SuperBook’s 2014 Games of the Year odds on this was Saints -4½. The Saints (7-1 ATS Home Favorite in 2013) are 0-4 ATS the L4 against the Niners, however.
NFL Pick: 49ers +3
Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens -10 (CBS, 1 p.m./10 a.m. PT)
Surprising to see a double-digit line in this AFC game between the host Baltimore Ravens (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS, at Steelers Sunday night) and the Tennessee Titans (2-6 SU, 2-5-1 ATS, Open Date), but if the Ravens lost or won against Pittsburgh on Sunday night, they’re still in a competitive division (AFC North) where every win will matter in the second half of the NFL season and will need the W here at Home at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. With Tennessee off a Bye week and the number so high, hard to recommend either side even though the Titans are 5-1 ATS L6 against the Ravens.
Pittsburgh Steelers -3½ vs. New York Jets (CBS, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
The New York Jets (1-7 SU, 1-6-1 ATS, at Chiefs Sunday) fall into the Rat category, so getting a team that’s hungry like the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS, vs. Ravens Sunday night)—especially if Pittsburgh loses to Baltimore in Week 9—and just laying 3½ seems more than fair although astute gamblers and Wise Guys hate that ½ on the 3½ more than they hate eating their wives’ meatloaf every Tuesday night. Here at MetLife Stadium next Sunday, Pittsburgh should find a way to win by at least 7 points. And the good news bubba? The Steelers are 3-0 ATS L3 and 6-2 ATS L10 Away against the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets.
NFL Pick: Steelers -3½
Atlanta Falcons -2½ vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (FOX, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT)
Not exactly a sexy game, this AFC South date between the host Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS, at Browns Sunday) and the visiting Atlanta Falcons (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS, Open Date) at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa is a meeting between two teams that have to be disappointed in their records and who are already waiting for the 2015 NFL Season. The Falcons are 2-5 ATS L7 Away at Tampa but I wouldn’t bet on either of these teams with Donald Trump’s money.
Denver Broncos -12½ vs. Oakland Raiders (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET/1:05 p.m. PT)
The SuperBook’s 2014 Games of the Year Line on this was (Broncos) -9½, so, obviously the perception is that the defending AFC champion Denver Broncos (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS, at Patriots Sunday) are better than thought, and, well, the Oakland Raiders (0-7 SU, 3-4 ATS, at Seahawks Sunday) are still the Oakland Raiders. The Black-and-Silver crowd at O.co Coliseum will be pumped for the big upset in this AFC West game until it’s about 17-3 Denver when they will likely focus more on beer consumption than putting their pirate hearts into their homeboys who could very well end up winless this season. The Broncos are 4-0-1 ATS L5 vs. Oakland. and won this meeting last season in Oakland, 34-14 as 10-point Underdogs and this final scoreline may be about the same.
NFL Pick: Broncos -12½
St. Louis Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals -7 (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT)
University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona is the site of this game between the NFC West’s St. Louis Rams (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS, at 49ers Sunday) and the host Arizona Cardinals (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS, at Cowboys Sunday) and it sure seems like the home side and Week 9 NFC-leading Cardinals should be favored by a little more. Arizona spanked the Rams, 30-10 as 4-point Favorites in this game last season and that’s good enough for me to advise grabbing the Redbirds early and laying the flat 7.
NFL Pick: Cardinals -7
New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks -9½ (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT)
The New York Giants (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS, vs. Colts Monday night) head west for this inter-conference brawl with the Super Bowl champions Seattle Seahawks (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS, vs. Raider Sunday) at CenturyLink Field in The Emerald City. Seattle traded WR Percy Harvin two weeks back and now Marshawn Lynch is reportedly unhappy and the way this Seahawks team has been playing lately, it’s hard to want to back them and taking the thick points may be worth consideration. Seattle has won and covered the L2 meetings.
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers -7½ (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT)
This NFC North game between the Chicago Bears (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS, Open Date) and the Green Bay Packers (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS, Open Date) at Lambeau Field looked a lot better on the schedule before the season started and the SuperBook’s 2014 Games of the year had this one lined at -6 over the summer. Both will be coming in off Open Dates and a Bears loss here would send them to 3-6 and pretty much end this season. With the Bears playing so darn poorly and Green Bay 7-1 ATS L8 vs. Da Bears, (laying) that 7½ may seem wise come Monday morning.
NFL Pick: Packers -7½
Monday, November 10, 2014
Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles -5½ (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT)
Monday Night Football heads to the City of Brotherly Love and Lincoln Financial Field for what should be an entertaining game between the host Philadelphia Eagles (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS, at Texans Sunday) and the Carolina Panthers (3-4-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, vs. Saints Thursday night). The SuperBook’s Games of the Year odds on this were Philadelphia -4, so the Panthers have slipped somewhat in the eyes of oddsmakers here. Will stay away from this, but wouldn’t be surprised if the Road Underdogs Carolina found a way to win outright in a game that will be much more important for them, especially if it loses in week 9 at Houston.
Bye Week: Texans, Colts, Vikings, Patriots, Chargers, Redskins
NFL picks: 49ers +3, Steelers -3½, Broncos -12½, Cardinals -7, Packers -7½